Ma Yinchen: The strong US dollar overlay demand gold is still hovering at the bottom

Zhongxin Jingwei August 9th.

Author Ma Yinchen Zhixin Investment Research Institute researcher

The weak performance in the second quarter, the gold market continued to decline after entering July, and the international gold price closed for the fourth consecutive month. In July, COMEX (New York Commercial Exchange) futures gold not only fell below the $ 1,800/ounce integer mark, but also lost $ 1,700/ounce. Affected by the continued strong performance of the US dollar index, the gold market lacks upward promotion and continues to undergo pressure. However, at the end of the month, after the support of the $ 1700/ounce integer barrier, the gold price stubbornly recovered and recovered the level, showing that the downward support of the gold market was still relatively stable.

In the middle of the third quarter, the bottom of the golden market has been formed, and the pressure of favorable factor is expected to weaken, so the price of gold is expected to stabilize and stabilize. From the perspective of the month, the golden price line in July also showed the stubborn support below. In August, the price of gold price below was supported by the $ 1700/ounce integer barrier, and it was expected to impact $ 1,800/ounce at the top of the $ 1750/ounce.

Phaseral bottom may have been formed

From the perspective of technical analysis, the underlying bottom of the international gold price may have been formed. Although the gold market fell below the $ 1700/ounce mark in July, it did not break the low position set in August 2021. Since then, it has rebounded to recover the $ 1,700/ounce mark. This shows that the gold market has not been abandoned, and the energy accumulation is accumulated. In the case of stable support below, it is waiting for a breakthrough.

On the whole, the gold market is still in a state of shocks and the direction is not clear. Based factors such as the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike at the end of July also have a great impact on the gold market. In the short period of time, the bottom of the gold market has basically formed the bottom of the $ 1680/ounce stage. After breakthrough and stabilizing $ 1750/ounce, that is, the downward resistance line since mid -June. Nearby levels. If it can effectively break the 1770 to 1780 USD/ounce resistance area, the price of gold is expected to impact the $ 1,800/ounce mark.

There are still differences

After the continuous decline in recent months, the wait -and -see mood of the gold market is becoming more and more intensive, and there are relatively obvious differences between the markets and shorts.

A market view is that the commodity market may have a major turning point in the second half of the year, and crude oil may turn down, while the price of gold may return to $ 2,000/ounce. Some banks also believe that the price of gold at the end of 2022 has risen to $ 2050/ounce. In the context of the risk of global economic recession, the price of gold is cheaper than other commodities, so it can attract investors to buy.

Another market view is expected to decline in 2022, looking at the level of $ 1650/ounce. Although the price of gold has continued to decline, the long -term inverse relationship with the US debt is still at a relatively high level. The market environment is pushing the actual interest rate and the US dollar index. These are the two major obstacles to the rise in gold prices. The strong performance of the US dollar will continue to pressure gold.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is still a key factor affecting the trend of gold prices

From the perspective of the market, the investment demand that has continued to be weak in the gold market since the second quarter is expected to not change much in the short term, and it is difficult to provide driving forces for the upward price of gold. In the second half of the year, the U.S. economy has stagflation risk, which is favorable for the high price of gold. In the context of the CPI (Consumer Price Index) data continued at a high level and two consecutive quarters of GDP (GDP) for two consecutive quarters, the risk of stagnation in the U.S. economy has become higher and higher. Historically, in the stagflation environment, gold often has a significant performance than other assets. When the stagnation arrives, the high -level inflation level makes the golden promotion of the golden hedging product, and then superimposed the low -growth economy in the stagflation environment to drive the golden avoidance demand of gold, which will boost the overall price of gold.

The Fed's monetary policy is still the key to determining whether the gold market can break through more than 2022. If the Fed continues to raise interest rates sharply and US economic data starts to repair, then under the strong US dollar index, the gold market will continue to withstand large suppression. If the US economic recession signal is becoming more and more obvious, but the Fed will continue to raise interest rates in order to suppress inflation, then the demand for risk aversion in gold is expected to return and provide certain driving forces for the upward price of gold. And once the US economy continues to decline and the Fed changes monetary policy, the hedging demand in the gold market will return to a big return to provide strong driving forces for the upward price of gold.

Although the market is currently expected to raise interest rates twice in September and fourth quarters in 2022, once the weak performance of US economic data has not improved significantly, the Fed may change monetary policy after the fourth quarter. For the gold market, this means the disappearance of the maximum uplink resistance. In this case, the two major functions of golden avoidance and inflation hedging may be highlighted in this circumstances that the risk of stagnation in the United States and the poor economy in Europe will be highlighted. Therefore, the market trend after the fourth quarter deserves high attention.

Although the overall trend of the gold market is still unknown, and the market uncertainty is still high, the value of the configuration is still there for a long time.Investors pursuing investment diversified and balanced allocation can appropriately increase the proportion of gold and related types of assets in the investment portfolio under the appropriate market conditions.(Zhongxin Jingwei APP) This article was selected by the Zhongxin Jingwei Research Institute. Due to the selected works, the new Jingwei copyright generated by the selected work, without written authorization, no unit or individual may reprint, extract or use it in other ways.The views involved in the selected content only represent the original author and do not represent the view of the Sino -Singapore Jingwei.

Editor in charge: Zhang Yan

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