Exports have increased steadily trade, focusing on my country's supply advantage

Li Chao

The exports remained strong in July, normalized testing and overall economic development and epidemic prevention and control, promoting the repairs of "flow of things" to boost exports. The Yangtze River Delta is particularly prominent, and the depreciation and price factors are also good. The relative advantages of supply, the fundamental recovery and strengthening my country's supply capacity, overseas supply is facing the impact of economic stagnation trend, the deterioration of corporate assets liabilities, geopolitics, and strikes.

Logistics repair and depreciation are good exports, global recession pays attention to China's supply advantage

China exported in July (in RMB) increased by 23.9%year -on -year, and the previous value increased by 22%, continuing strong performance. my country's import and export of major trading partners remained actively growing. From January to July, my country imports and exports to ASEAN, the European Union, and the United States of 3.53 trillion, 3.23 trillion yuan, and 2.93 trillion yuan, respectively, increased by 13.2%, 8.9%and 11.8%, respectively. Essence During the same period, the import and export of the countries along the “Belt and Road” and RCEP trading partners in my country increased by 19.8%and 7.5%, respectively.

Exports remained actively growing in July. Logistics restoration was the key, and the depreciation and price factors also contributed. We have been prompting normalized nucleic acid testing since May to help coordinate economic development and epidemic prevention and control. The key is to promote the restoration of flow of people and logistics. From the perspective of policy effects, the significant improvement of logistics repair has brought about important support for the stage of exports. In particular, the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Northeast region, which was impacted and interrupted by the epidemic and the emergence of the supply chain. After overcoming the impact of the epidemic, the exports quickly recovered with the logistics. The regional imports and exports increased by 4.8%, 2.8%, and 12.2%year -on -year, and the growth rates increased further in June to 14.9%, 6.4%, and 12.8%. According to the statistics of customs, from January to July, the three provinces and one city in the Yangtze River Delta were imported and exported with a total of 8.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.7%year-on-year, and the increase of 2.5 percentage points from January-June.

In addition, we started to prompt the positive impact of the depreciation and price factors on the export reading at the end of May. The factors are close to 17.2 percentage points. In terms of price, the export price index reached 115.7 in June, the ring comparison increased by 6.1 percentage points in May, the year -on -year growth rate reached 14.8%, and the US dollar valuation export growth rate was 18%at the same time. We believe that the benefits of depreciation and price factors have strong support for export reading.

Highlights of export structure: Pay attention to the industrial logic behind the price toughness. From January to July, 7.57 trillion yuan exported electromechanical products, an increase of 10.1%, accounting for 56.6%of the total export value. Among them, automatic data processing equipment and its parts, mobile phones, and cars increased by 4.4%, 2%, and 54.4%, respectively. During the same period, export labor -intensive products were 2.41 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.2%, accounting for 18%of exports. Among them, clothing and clothing accessories, textiles and plastic products increased by 13.5%, 11.9%, and 16.3%, respectively. We remind us to pay attention to the industrial logic behind the toughness of the export price. On the one hand, overseas economic inflation is expected to increase and increase the price increase tolerance. my country's supply advantage is reflected in the passing price (import price) to the output (export price). The high increase of export prosperity and export price index can be confirmed; on the other hand, overseas supply faces a series of impact backgrounds, the increase in competitive advantages of my country's high -end manufacturing industry will help enhance the global market share. High -speed growth is closely related, especially the two directions of autonomous controlled strong chain supplementary chain and basic industrial reconstruction (industrial new energy and industrial intelligence).

In the second half of the overseas extension environment, focusing on the advantages of China's supply has brought the benefits to exports. In the past two years, the logic of China's strong supply has driven the logic of export exceptions to continuously verify. In the second half of this year, under the expected global stagflation expectations (geopolitical risks, continuous major interest rate hikes and other factors), China's supply advantage may be reproduced. : First, under the trend of global economic recession in the second half of the year, my country's economic recovery, abundant policy space, and supply capacity are repairing and improving. Second, global economic and political uncertainty is strong, and overseas supply faces many challenges:

First, the corporate asset liability statement is affected by the overseas supply capacity. Since Q3 of 2021, a series of costs such as salary, rent, freight, raw materials have impacted the asset -liabilities and cash flow sheet of overseas enterprises, and the pressure of corporate pressure has increased sharply. Overception, American furniture companies such as NB Liebman, Lane Home Furnishings, Serta Simmons have significantly layoffs, closing factories, and even applying for bankruptcy protection. There are also many cases of energy and financial industries.

The second is that the company's willingness to expand production is limited in the stagflation environment, and Germany is the first deficit. Under the combination of cost -promoting inflation and economic recession expectations, enterprises have limited their willingness to increase new capacity, especially in the field of energy, and insufficient refining capacity in the United States is a typical case. Energy prices have intensified stagflation expectations, high energy dependence has led to significant imports of imports, significant deficits in important EU economies, and the first trade deficit since 1991. The cost shock of the manufacturing enterprise has affected its supply capacity and willingness to expand its willingness to produce production. Essence

Third, the epidemic and high inflation exacerbate the gap between the rich and the poor, reflected in social tear and populism. In the context of high inflation, workers increase their wages and increase their wages. The union's countermeasures are enhanced. Workers' strikes, prices-wage spiral rise and strike impact supply chain stability to pressure overseas supply. Fourth, geopolitical conflicts are still continuing, and the game of great powers has also entered the energy field. As a result, the global supply chain impact and operating costs and transaction costs will also affect overseas supply capacity.

Economic restoration is slightly frustrated, and domestic demand has gradually pushed into import

In July, RMB was priced at 7.4%, and the previous value increased by 4.8%, which continued to rise from the previous month. From January to July, my country's imports from the European Union, ASEAN, and the United States reached 148, 1.09 and 1.68 trillion yuan, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 6%, -7.6%and 2.3%. Our "Yellow Flower Reappeared again yesterday, 2022 is no longer 2020" clearly proposed that normalized testing drives normalized growth, normalized nucleic acid testing and overall epidemic prevention and control and economic growth. Importation improvement, May-July data continuously confirmed.

In July, economic restoration was slightly frustrated, and the process of disturbing import restoration was disturbed. Imports continued to improve from the previous month in July, but the improvement rate was slightly lower than expected. On the one hand, it confirmed that we previously proposed the judgment of "normalized detection driven normalized growth, domestic demand improvement to promote import restoration". The decision of continuous improvement of GDP in half a year is expected to reach 5.5%and 6.4%of the actual GDP of Q3 and Q4, which means that imports are still repairing channels. On the other hand, affected by incidents such as real estate suspension of loan storms in July, the pace of economic recovery slowed slightly, and the side caused failed to repair imports. In July, PMI data fell to 49%, and both production and new orders were weak. We believe that as the policy is gradually fulfilled, the motivation of domestic demand has risen, and short -term real estate disturbances are limited.

On the one hand, the Politburo Conference clearly stated that "macro policies must actively act in expanding demand" and "to stabilize the real estate market, compact local government responsibilities, keep interactive buildings, and stabilize people's livelihood." Enterprises and residents expect that in the process of continuing the stable growth policy, maintaining strong growth in the fields of infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and consumption can help drive economic growth.

Pay attention to the benefits of the big prices. my country's energy products, agricultural products and other raw materials have high externally dependence. Since the overall price increase environment of commodities this year, the import volume of imports from crude oil, coal, natural gas and soybean from January to July will be reduced. Enter Q3, with the continuous interest rate hikes, strong dollars and global recession expectations of the Federal Reserve, the price of commodities fell at the top. We remind that the benefits brought about by the price of overseas prices will be seen, on the one hand, reduce the pressure of inflation in the upstream input type in my country, and improve the intermediate costs such as middle and lower reaches of processing and manufacturing. On the other hand The effect of rising and stable growth policies play a role, helping imports.

The trade surplus continued to increase in July, three stable growth, exchange rate, and foreign reserves

The trade surplus continued to increase in July, helping the exchange rate and foreign reserves stabilized. In July, my country achieved a trade surplus of US $ 10126 billion, with a previous value of 97.94 billion US dollars. Normal nucleic acid coordinates economic growth and epidemic prevention and control is the key. To achieve logistics repair to promote the recovery of exports, the gradual rise of domestic demand leads to slow imports, which will bring the trade surplus in May, June, and July. Growth has a strong role in nominal GDP.

At the same time, the growth of trade surplus confirms that my country ’s basically facing good expectations will help the exchange rate stabilize. In July, the exchange rate stabilizes at 6.73 narrowly fluctuating, and the fluctuations decrease significantly compared with April-June. In addition, the high surplus help helps to stabilize foreign exchange reserves. In June, the monthly reserves of foreign exchange reserves decreased by 56.51 billion US dollars (the valuation factor is expected to cause an impairment of US $ 65 billion), which has spawned the market's concerns about capital outflow and international revenue and expenditure. We continue to remind the trade surplus excessive expectation to help stabilize foreign exchange reserves. In July, it has been reported that the scale of foreign exchange reserves in my country in July was US $ 310.41 billion, an increase of 32.8 billion US dollars from the end of June.

(The author is Chief Economist of Zhejiang Business Securities)

Editor -in -chief: Fang Fengjiao Editor: Cheng Kai

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