Five experts have made a stable growth: maintain a wide -term use momentum to promote effective investment

Since the beginning of this year, my country has strengthened macro -policy regulation, efficiently coordinates the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development, and the implementation of policy introduction has been effective and effective. As an important means of macro -control, fiscal policy is more active and the monetary policy has remained stable. At the same time, it will make good use of the policy toolbox, actively cope with, and strive for efforts to help the development of the market subject and stabilize the economic market.

In this regard, five experts interviewed by the reporter of the Securities Daily believe that the next step of the macro policy will continue to take actively expanding demand and effectively make up for the insufficient social needs as the policy foothold and focus. Fiscal policy and monetary policy will continue to make efforts and have clear "grasping points".

Promote the transformation of wide currency to wide credit

"Stability" is still the main base of this year's monetary policy. Since the beginning of this year, the implementation of stable monetary policy has been further increased. The central bank has used multiple monetary policy tools to play a dual function and structural dual function of monetary policy tools in a timely manner to increase support for the real economy.

Judging from the financial data released by the central bank, the current liquidity is reasonable and abundant, the comprehensive financing costs of enterprises have been steadily decreasing, and the quality and efficiency of the real economy of financial services will be improved.

Wu Chaoming, deputy dean of the Caixin Research Institute, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the next stage of monetary policy is to increase credit support and promote the transformation of wide currencies to wide credit.

In Wu Chaoming's view, in the use of specific monetary policy tools, the three major "grasps" are expected to work together: First, policy banks add 800 billion yuan in credit quota and infrastructure construction investment funds, which will be important to support credit expansion. Supporting effects; second, structural policy tools such as re -loan will continue to do addition and accelerate use, focusing on supporting intelligent low -carbon, small and micro enterprises, and weak economic areas; third, real estate -related credit policies are expected to be loose margin, and it is appropriately opened by urban policies. Some policy tool boxes stabilize real estate financing needs.

Pang Yan, chief economist and director of the research department of the Digang Federation Greater China, believes that the next step of macro policies will continue to take active expansion of demand and effectively make up for the insufficient social needs as the policy foothold and focus. Policies will focus on more. The expansion of domestic demand to greatly enhances the endogenous motivation of market entities more effectively. The focus is not that the short -term policy is not to increase the short -term policy, but to ensure that the existing policy is advanced and the incremental policy has taken effect.

Pang Ye told the "Securities Daily" reporter that on the premise of continuing to continue to resolve risks and improve the macro -prudential management system in key areas, the main point of the monetary policy is to maintain reasonable liquidity and abundance The actual loan interest rate has decreased steadily. In terms of increasing the weak links of the real economy and corporate relief, more structural tools will be used for precise and targeted support, especially for small and medium -sized enterprises, private enterprises, real estate industries, consumer loans, scientific and technological innovation, green development, etc. Institute of credit support in key areas.

For the possibilities of whether there is a reduction and interest rate cut, the above analysts all believe that the possibility is lower. Wu Chaoming believes that due to the long period of time, Sino -US spreads will still be in a state of upside down, increased domestic price pressure, and insufficient demand to restrict currency loose effects. It is expected that the probability of cutting interest rates and ranging in the short term is small.

"Considering that inflation pressure may be picked up in the third and fourth quarters, and other major economies may continue to maintain the basic policy position of interest rate hikes. The possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts and ramen in the second half of the year is lower, but the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) still There may be asymmetric lowering, the situation of loose capital, and the actual loan interest rate of the "volume wide prices" trend of the downside. "Pang Yan said.

Fiscal policies will pay more attention to practical results

Since the beginning of this year, fiscal policies have been actively developing, implementing large -scale value -added tax refunds, and effectively accelerating tax refund progress. According to the latest data from the State Administration of Taxation, as of July 20, the tax refund of 2000.5 billion yuan has been returned to the taxpayer account, exceeding the size of the annual tax refund of last year. In addition, this year's new special bond quota arrangements reached 3.65 trillion yuan. Bonds used for project construction by the end of June have basically been issued.

For the next fiscal policy to continue to promote effective investment and increase consumption, Wang Qing, chief analyst of the Macro -in Macro of the Oriental Jincheng, told the Securities Daily reporter that fiscal policy will maintain a higher continuity in the direction of steady growth. Among them, following the comprehensive efforts of special debt and tax reduction and tax reduction in the first half of the year, the fiscal policy tools in the second half of the year are still expected.

Dong Zhongyun, chief economist of AVIC Securities, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that my country's economy will continue the recovery situation since May. Infrastructure in half a year has continued to support my country's economy.

"The fiscal policy will continue to grow steadily. Through the government's active leverage to make up for the lack of expansion capacity of residents and corporate asset -liabilities, in the second half of the year, in infrastructure investment, market entities, protecting people's livelihood, and promoting consumption Expenditure intensity. "Dong Zhongyun said.

Wang Qing believes that under the recent "supporting local governments to use the full use of special debt limits", up to a maximum of about 1.55 trillion yuan in special bonds can be issued in the second half of the year, which will become a key guarantee for promoting the continuous increase in infrastructure investment. At the same time, this also helps to alleviate the problem that the scale of social financing may decline year -on -year in the second half of the year, maintain broad -credit momentum, and boost consumption and investment confidence.

Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities, believes in an interview with the Securities Daily that the next steady growth will be further increased, and positive fiscal policies will pay more attention to practical results. It is also possible that the deficit level may be appropriately increased, or the budget is not adjusted, and the issuance of special government bonds that do not count in deficit is increased. It effectively cooperates with monetary policy, promote effective investment, increase consumption, and better expand domestic demand. Chen Li said that in terms of promoting consumption, consumer vouchers support car consumption, greater efforts to tilt new energy vehicles, encourage scrapped old cars, replace new cars, expand the subsidy range of buying new cars, and drive consumption upgrades and growth.

Currency fiscal policy needs to be coordinated

A number of experts interviewed by a reporter from the Securities Daily have a consensus, that is, the future fiscal policy and monetary policy must be coordinated and co -exerted to achieve better policy results.

Wu Chaoming believes that first of all, it is necessary to maintain a loose liquidity environment and support low -cost financing; second, cooperate with incremental fiscal and quasi -fiscal policies, and use policy, developing bank credit funds and financial instruments to provide supporting infrastructure infrastructure infrastructure Credit funds. In addition, stabilize real estate financing, keep the bottom line of no systemic risk, and prevent real estate risks from transferring fiscal risks.

Pang Yan said that in terms of linkage with fiscal policy, the application of monetary policy is sufficient to use various policy development financial instruments, focusing on supporting the construction of infrastructure fields, accelerating the progress of the project and landing as soon as possible.

Wang Qing believes that in the second half of the year, fiscal and monetary policies must be fully coordinated to ensure that the market liquidity continues to be reasonable and abundant in the process of increasing fiscal policy, and avoiding excessive market interest rates rising. This is the basis for leverage the social stock resources to support market entities.

"While increasing infrastructure investment in fiscal expenditure, policies must also encourage social capital to participate in infrastructure construction and play the role of financial funds." Wang Qing said that for this reason, industrial policies must further reduce the threshold for social capital entry and fully fully reduce the threshold for social capital entry and fully fully reduce the threshold for social capital. The potential of market mechanisms such as REITs to attract financial capital investment in infrastructure construction.

Chen Li also believes that it is necessary to further promote the healthy development of public offering REITs, which is conducive to the activation of stock assets and the combination of stock assets with new investment and new investment to improve investment efficiency.

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