Economic demand double weak impact on crude oil prices, domestic oil prices may be "four consecutive declines" tomorrow night

In recent weeks, international crude oil prices have continued to fluctuate. Last week alone, the largest weekly decline since April 1 this year has been realized. New York's WTI oil prices fell by 9.74%, and Brent oil prices fell 8.70%, and fell to the level before the outbreak of the Russian -Ukraine conflict. As of the publication of the first financial reporter, the price of WTI in New York was $ 89.70/barrel, and Brent oil price was $ 95.79/barrel.

In recent days, international oil prices have repeatedly bottomed out "breaking" is the result of the combination of multiple factors such as "strengthening" the supply side of the crude oil supply side, the "both weakened" of the macroeconomic and demand side. On the one hand, as the major oil -producing countries Russia and the Organization of the Organization of Petroleum (OPEC) have recently increased their crude oil output, the supply of the international crude oil market has rebounded.

According to the first financial reporter, Libya increased production by about 700,000 barrels per day in two weeks. At present, the output has completely recovered to 1.2 million barrels/day; Russia's output in July increased by about 700,000 barrels per day from April. Only about 300,000 barrels/day before reducing production; Saudi Arabia and the UAE exports in July increased significantly by 1 million barrels per day, 300,000 barrels/day, respectively to the high positions of nearly two and 5 years, respectively.

On the other hand, the prospect of crude oil demand is "Meng Yin" due to economic recession. Farewell to demand for weak demand and economic recession has also become the main factor in the decline in international oil prices.

CITIC Futures Chief Energy Analyst Dr. Gu Chenxi told the First Financial Reporter: "The slowdown in the demand for oil products has been relatively obvious. In the demand for road traffic oil, we can see that the United States began to decline in the opposite season in May, Europe The demand for travel in July has also decreased significantly. In macro perspective, global economic deceleration, the US -Europe Central Bank's tightening, high oil prices and economic slowdown demand for oil products have gradually changed from quantitative to quality. "

"In the second half of the year, the risk of economic recession will drag the oil price from the perspective of the cycle." Dr. Gui Chenxi analyzed to the First Financial reporter that the downward pressure of oil prices in the later period is still relatively large. Essence At present, demand suppression is initially appeared, but there has not been a significant decline in. If the risk of systems in the later period has intensified, there is still the possibility of continuing the demand side.

At the same time, the weak manufacturing data exacerbates the market's concerns about the economic recession and weak demand, and then suppress the prospect of energy demand.

According to data published by major economies around the world, manufacturing purchasing managers of various countries (full name "Purchasing Managers" Index ", hereinafter referred to as" PMI ") has reached a new low. Specifically, the final value of the July PMI announced in Japan has dropped to 52.1 in July 52.1 , Hit a new low since September last year. The euro zone also faces similar "dilemma". The PMI of the euro zone S & P Global in July from 52.1 in June to 49.8, in the past two years (in June 2020), "the first time in" for the first time) "for the first time). "Brear below the Rongku boundary. The final value of the PMI in July in Germany was 49.3, and the PMI final value of France in July was 49.5, all of which fell below the Rongku boundary.

It is worth mentioning that the PMI's glory dividing line is 50. The index higher than 50 means that the industry is expanding, and less than 50 means shrinking. Now that PMIs of major economies such as Europe and the United States have fallen below the glory line, it means that the global economy may be in a decline.

With the decline of international oil prices, the change rate of crude oil changes from positive, and domestic refined oil prices are expected to be "enveloped".

According to the relevant provisions of my country's "Administrative Measures for Petroleum Price", the price of domestic refined oil products is a price adjustment cycle every ten working days. The main adjustment basis is the weighted average price of international crude oil prices for ten working days. Compared with the rate of change. According to Zhuochuang Information Data Monitoring model, as of the close of August 5 (that is, the 9th working day of the domestic refined oil price adjustment cycle), the reference rate of crude oil changes from positive and negative, which is 1.62%.

According to the First Financial Reporter, although there is still a working day from the opening of this round of price adjustment windows, the industry's unanimous prediction to the probability of this round of refined oil prices will be reduced. According to the current price adjustment amplitude, it is expected that gasoline and diesel will be reduced by 80 yuan/ton, and the corresponding 92 gasoline prices will be reduced by 0.06 yuan/liter, and the price of gasoline and No. 0 diesel will be reduced by 0.07 yuan/liter. At that time, domestic refined oil prices will usher in the first "four consecutive declines" during the year, and it is also the first "four consecutive declines" since 2019.

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