The epidemic affects the semi -annual performance of liquor stocks.

A new round of outbreaks have been outbreak in the second quarter, causing alcohol consumption scenarios to be impacted. The survey report released by the 6th China High -end Wine Exhibition (hereinafter referred to as the "China Wine Exhibition" held this week showed that more than 60 % of the wine merchants' business declined in the first half of the year. About 40 % A month. Recently, a number of liquor stocks have also announced the semi -annual performance or performance forecast. The impact of the epidemic on some markets has begun to be transmitted from channels to the factory.

Channel inventory grows rapidly

As the largest national wine exhibition before the end of the year, head wine companies such as Maotai, Wuliangye, Yanghe, and Luzhou Laojiao all participated in the exhibition. Many venues on the scene were full. Many dealers were in addition to their selection, but also There are many intentions to explore the "wind direction".

Shandong Zibo wine merchant Li Ying told the First Financial reporter that since March of this year, a new round of epidemic has suspended the sales. Although the later epidemic affects the impact of the epidemic situation, the activities such as catering and gathering have been significantly reduced. However, the cost and growth of the continuous expenditure employees made him very focused, hoping to understand the movement of the industry.

The reporter learned that there are not a few dealers holding Li Ying's thoughts. With the end of the epidemic and industry adjustment, in the first half of the year, the liquor industry faced problems such as disappearance of consumer scenarios and poor market sales. Most of the domestic liquor sales were multi -level models. Sex, but the dealer is the first.

The China Wine Exhibition Organizing Committee announced the survey report of wine merchants from May to July 2022, showing that the liquor circulation channels have nearly ten years of challenges. On the one hand, it is reflected in the profitability of the wine merchants. The report shows that from January to June, the sales of the wine merchants 'sales fell by 5.7%, of which 63.6%of the wine merchants' performance fell year-on-year, and only 27.2%of the wine merchants were the same as the same period. 8%of wine merchants achieve sales growth. In 2021, more than 65.4%of the wine merchants achieved sales growth, of which 10%of the wine merchants increased by more than 10%.

Earlier, the first financial reporter's visit to the market found that in the second quarter of this year, the market sales of the wine merchants in parts of some areas affected by the epidemic were almost suspended, including Qingming and Dragon Boat Festival in the traditional peak season.

The slowdown in sales has increased channel inventory. The report states that about 39.7%of the wine merchants inventory is more than 5 months and 33.6%of the wine merchants are in 3-5 months.

Liu Member of the China Liquor Distribution Association and Executive Vice President Liu said that for the field of alcohol circulation, in the first half of 2022, an unprecedented cold current was encountered. "Become an important issue facing wine merchants in the first half of this year.

The reporter learned in the on -site interview that since June, with the impact of the national epidemic, the consumption of alcohol in many places has begun to rise. Essence

The influence of liquor stocks affects the beginning

For a long time, channels have played the role of "buffer" in the liquor industry. Since 2020, the white wine industry has grown overall stability, but with the repeated epidemic, it has also been reflected in the performance of some liquor stocks.

Recently, the performance of Gujing Gongjiu (000596.SZ) showed that the total operating income achieved a total operating income of 9 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year -on -year increase of 28.5%; net profit was 1.92 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 39.2%. From the perspective of a single quarter, the revenue in the second quarter was about 3.28 billion yuan, an increase of 29.6%year -on -year, and the net profit also increased by 45.4%, which was related to the smaller impact of the epidemic in Anhui Province during the same period.

In contrast, Shunxin Agriculture (000860.SZ), which was affected by the Beijing epidemic, has a significant decline in the first half of the year. It is expected that the profit of 32 million yuan to 48 million yuan will be achieved in the first half of the year, a year -on -year decrease of more than 90 %. In terms of liquor business, it is mainly affected by the repeated influence of the clustering epidemic in many places across the country. The consumption scenarios have decreased, sales have decreased, and the sales of raw materials supply, logistics and transportation, etc., have greatly affected its liquor business.

Gold Seed Wine (600199.SH) is expected to belong to the net profit of shareholders of listed companies in the first half of 2022 to lose 52 million yuan to 58 million yuan. The announcement shows that except for its liquor product structure is in the adjustment period; on the other hand, due to the domestic domestic in the first half of the year, domestic China The impact of the epidemic caused the decline in sales.

Shuijingfang (600779.SH) achieved revenue of 2.07 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 12.9%year -on -year, and a net profit of 370 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 2%. The momentum slowed down in the first half of the year, and the overall social inventory was higher than the same period last year, but the overall is still at a healthy level.

It is worth noting that the impact of the epidemic on channels has also attracted the attention of upstream wine companies, and some medium and large wine companies have also begun to investigate the pressure of the channel inventory.

Zheng Gang, a member of the Party Committee of Jinsha Wine and general manager of the sales company, told the First Financial reporter that the company has sent more than 100 teams to start to find out the inventory of channels in various places. However, some dealers do face problems with financial difficulties. Jinsha Liquor is adopting a series of measures including repurchase products such as repurchase products such as repurchase products such as repurchase products, and increasing dealers' confidence in dealers such as fund chains.

In 2021, Jinsha Wine Industry achieved a sales repayment of 6.066 billion yuan, an increase of 122%year -on -year. According to the previous goals, Sands Wine is expected to achieve 8 billion sales targets in 2022. According to Zheng Gang, current channel inventory growth is affected by the epidemic, which is temporary difficulty. The company has also reduced the expectations of this year's growth. The dealers allow dealers to decompress the dealer in accordance with voluntary settings. At the same time, Jinsha Liquor also adopts stricter channel management and control policies to ensure the interests of dealers in compliance.

First Financial reporter noticed that in June and July this year, Jiannanchun and Guogai Wine Industry also issued policies to reduce channels. From June 5th, Zhang Chunxin, general manager of Guotai Wine Industry, led a team to more than 20 cities including Henan, Shandong, and Zhejiang, visited nearly 200 dealers, and from July 1st. Business product products and quotas, quotas, quarter annual tasks reaching rewards and other assessment methods are adjusted to adjust, from planning distribution to demand purchase.

Some insiders inside wine companies said that if the task continues to press the task, once the dealer's funds break, it is likely to throw the goods at a low price, which will have a more serious impact on the market.

However, at present, the head wine companies have not publicly launched a policy to reduce the burden reduction, and most of the previous growth goals have been maintained.

Li Xuefei, an white wine analyst, told the First Financial Reporter that at present, there are first -tier wines such as Mao Wu and other famous wines in business, gifts, festivals and other markets. Therefore, from the national perspective, the inventory problem is not large. For other wine companies, the inventory problem does not have a good solution, and the slowdown of consumption has brought up and downstream chain reactions. The second half of the year is also the peak season for the consumption of the wine industry. If the epidemic affects controlling, channel inventory should be improved to a certain extent.

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