The inversion of 2 -year and 10 -year US debt yields deepen the risk of economic recession in the U.S. economic recession

Since the Federal Reserve announced 75 basis points on July 28, the short -term yield of the US debt has continued to intensify. As of August 5, the 10 -year US bond yield was 2.83%, and the yield of the 2 -year US bond was 3.24%. The spread of the two had reached 41 basis points, a new high since 2000.

Analyst Bai Xue, an analyst at the Ministry of East Jincheng Research and Development, analyzed in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter that the inverted curve of the two -year and 10 -year US bond yield yields deepened, which generally reflected the risk of US economic recession is increasing. Recently, the three -month and 10 -year US debt spreads that predict the economic recession have also narrowed sharply. The other US debt curves have also begun to be frequent and intermittently inverted, reflecting the Federal Reserve in continuous radical interest rate hikes, financial conditions for financial conditions, financial conditions In the context of sharp tightening, the market's concerns about the decline in the US economy have surpassed inflation.

The U.S. economy downlink risk increases

Wind data shows that the inverted curve of the long -term return on the US debt has begun from early July. On July 5th, the 10 -year US bond yield of the "anchor" that was regarded as the "anchor" of global asset pricing was flat with the 2 -year US debt yield expected to track short -term interest rates, which were also 2.82%. Starting on July 6, the yields of 10 -year and 2 -year US debt began to be inverted, and it continued for nearly one month by August 5. It is worth mentioning that the two periods of U.S. bonds in July were still within 30 basis points, and after entering August, it expanded to more than 30 basis points, and it continued to increase.

Bai Xue said that the driving factors behind the phenomenon of upside down need to be divided into two stages of analysis. Before August, the Federal Reserve raised interest rate hikes 75 basis points, which did not exceed market expectations. At the same time, Fed Chairman Powell released signals that might slow down the rhythm of interest rate hikes in the future, resulting in the general downward of US debt yields. The subsequent release of the United States in the second quarter of GDP was a negative growth month -on -month, reflecting the "technical decline" of the US economy, exacerbating the market's expected market decline in the US economy under a sharp interest rate hike, reflected in the large downward decline of 10 -year US debt yields, and 2 years, and 2 years The US debt yields have a small decline, and the spread of the two is slightly opened.

"Since August, the main Federal Reserve officials have released signals of eagle interest rate hikes one after another, reversing the expectations of the previous market to slow interest rate hikes. In particular, the non -agricultural employment data announced on August 5 is relatively strong, and the market expects to reconnect the interest rate hikes to reconnect heating up again. Promote the return of US debt yields to the upward channel. During the process, the short -term interest rates that are more sensitive to interest rate changes are significantly faster and faster, causing deepening the return of the yield curve. "Bai Xue said.

The chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the yield of the 2 -year US bond and 10 -year US bonds has been widened since August, mainly due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and heating up the short -term interest rate The upward increase, but the upward rate of long -term interest rates is still suppressed by the weakening of economic expectations. Deep upside down reflects the weakening of the US economy, and to a certain extent heralds the risk of decline in the US economy in the next one to 2 years.

"The market generally believes that the long -end yield of US debt long -end yields indicates that the US economy is about to enter a decline, which may be more in the statistical sense. . "Liang Si, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter.

US debt investment needs to strengthen risk prevention and control

Looking forward to the trend of US bond interest rates in the future, many analysts believe that long -term and short -end US debt interest rate curves will continue to be continued in short -term, and there is a possibility of further deepening the degree of inverse.

Obviously, under the trend of further increase in the U.S. economic downlink risk, the upward rate of 10 -year US debt yields will still be limited. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue to tighten rapidly, and the short -term interest rate of the two -year US debt has not been treated. Therefore, it is expected that the interest rates of US bonds in the next two and 10 -year US debt will continue to be upside down.

"The high inflation caused by the structural tension between the supply and the labor market may continue until the end of the year. The overall trend of US debt yields will continue to rise with the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate. The changes in the benchmark interest rate sensitively may be more steep, and when the downward trend of the US economy is becoming more and more obvious, 10 -year US debt yields will be limited. The rate will continue to hang upside down. "Bai Xue analyzed.

Since the beginning of this year, more official institutions have reduced their holdings of U.S. debt to varying degrees. In addition, the phenomenon of depth of US debt in US debt, Bai Xue believes that this does reflect investors' concerns about the mid -to -long -term fundamentals of the United States and lacks long -term investment confidence. However, in the short term, the US economy has not yet entered the substantive decline, and the yield of US debt yields is also at a high area from a historical level. Recently, it is less likely to have continuously and large -scale US debt selling due to the inverted yield curve inverted. Essence

The impact on my country's bond market is controllable

Talking about the impact of US debt inverted on my country's bond market, many experts said that due to the large differences in the fundamental fundamentals, inflation levels, and monetary policy of China and the United States, foreign capital holds the size of my country's bond funds. The influence of upside down on the domestic bond market is controllable.

Obviously, the yield of US bonds mainly affects my country's bond market through the changes in Sino -US interest spreads. However, the impact of changes in the spread of China and the United States is more about disturbing factors. The narrowing of China and the United States has reduced the attraction of bond assets in my country to a certain extent and brought pressure from certain foreign capital outflows. However, my country's foreign debt holdings account for relatively small debt funds. Therefore, the narrowing of China -US interests has limited impact on my country's debt market as a whole.

Bai Xue believes that from the perspective of investment income, the recent increase in US debt yields may attract some short -term international capital to shift from the domestic bond market to the US bond market. HoweverThe factors determine that the yield of U.S. debt is still mainly due to emotional flow of domestic capital flow, which does not constitute the dominant and decisive factor in the trend of the domestic bond market."From a historical point of view, the inverted US Treasury yields will not affect my country's financial market. What's more, my country's economy is in an accelerated recovery trend, and the influence of Sino -US interests narrowing on my country is controllable." Liang Si Si Si Si. " express.(Reporter Liu Qi, a trainee reporter Han Yu)

[Editor in charge: Li Tong]

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