See the international and domestic situation, and firmly grasp the initiative of development

At present, there are many external instability and uncertain factors. The pressure of domestic epidemic rebound is still there. Demand shrinkage and supply shocks, structural contradictions and periodic issues are superimposed. It is still necessary to work hard to promote economic stability recovery.

From an international perspective, the risk of stagnation in the world's economic stagnation has risen, and the external environment has become more complicated and severe

New crown pneumonia virus has continued to mutate, Omikon's new strain has become the main popular strain in the world, with stronger infectious power, faster transmission speed, enhanced hiddenness, and increasing external prevention input pressure. Under the continuous impact of high inflation and tight currencies, the global manufacturing expansion has continued to slow down, trade growth is at a lower level, and major economies are facing large downward pressure. The World Bank will reduce global economic growth by 1.2 percentage points to 2.9%in 2022. In June, the global manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI) was 52.2%, a new low since August 2020. At the same time, the global epidemic and the Ukraine crisis exacerbate the tight supply of commodities. The prices of major commodities such as energy, raw materials, and food are running at a high level. Global inflation pressure has continued to rise, and it has also increased its input impact on my country. In June, the international energy and non -energy price index rose 82.3%and 12.0%year -on -year; the average price of coal, crude oil, and natural gas in my country rose 77.0%, 65.8%, and 51.2%, respectively. Facing the high pressure of inflation, the Federal Reserve has accelerated interest rate hikes, the euro zone started the interest rate hike period, the global market risk aversion rising, and the stock market bond market's exchange market fluctuations intensified, which may affect my country's economic and financial stability through capital flow and exchange rates. At the end of June, the Dow Jones Index and Ming Sheng Global Stock Index fell 11.3%and 14.1%compared with the end of March; the intermediate price of the RMB against the US dollar depreciated by 5.4%from the end of March. In addition, the influence of geopolitical conflicts has continued, and the political situation in some regions is unstable, and the external environment facing my country's development is more complicated.

From a domestic perspective, it is difficult to completely eliminate the epidemic in the short term, and there are still more difficulties in economic operation.

Under the impact of the epidemic, residents' consumption declined in the second quarter, and some contact service industries declined significantly. In the second quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 4.6%year -on -year, of which catering revenue fell by 15.6%; the value -added value of accommodation and catering, transportation and storage and postal industry decreased by 5.3%and 3.5%, respectively. At present, the domestic epidemic still has a multi -point and frequent trend, which will restore contact with clustering consumption. At the same time, residents' income is more difficult to increase consumer power. In the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of residents across the country fell 2.1 percentage points from the year -on -year growth rate. It is also necessary to see that although the production of enterprises has improved recently, it has been under insufficient orders and dual squeezing in costs, decreased profitability of enterprises, and small and micro enterprises are particularly difficult. During the PMI survey in June, the hand order index was 44.2%, which decreased for three consecutive months; the PMI of small enterprises was 48.6%, which was located in the contraction range for 14 consecutive months. In the first half of the year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by only 1.0%year -on -year. In addition, some long -term accumulated structural contradictions are still relatively prominent, and the hidden risks in some fields still exist, and the economic stability recovery is facing many difficulties.

In the face of the complex situation, we have to see that the prevention and control of the epidemic in my country has achieved significant results, laying the foundation for the stable development of the economic and social, the economy overwhelming the unexpected factors, and the improvement of stability and recovery in a short period of time, showing strong toughness and potential.

From the perspective of development prospects, as the world's largest developing country, my country has broad development space, the economy has not changed for a long time, and the production factors that support high -quality development have not changed; my country has the world's most complete industrial system and manufacturing industry. A large country's status is consolidated, and the material foundation accumulated for a long time is strong; my country's development is still in a period of important strategic opportunities. It has the world's most growing domestic demand market, new industrialization and urbanization rapid advancement, and large -scale market advantages are obvious. The highlights of scientific and technological innovation are frequent, the advantages of accelerated conversion of new and old kinetic energy, and the advantages of innovation resources have continued to enhance; my country has the advantages of strong leadership and strong system of the party in China, the efficiency of macro governance has been continuously improved, and social stability has strong cohesion.

As long as we are firm in confidence, maintain a determination, firmly grasp the initiative of development, and have the ability to promote economic recovery and keep economic operation in a reasonable range.

For details: The party group of the National Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China "Effectively respond to risks to challenge the national economy to rise and recover"

Source: Seeking.com

Planning: Chen Youyong

Production: Chen Youyong

Review: Wu Qiang

Produced: Wang Zhaobin

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