Yao Yang, Dean of the Peking University National Development Council: Consumption is a key recommendation for the start of the economy to issue 1.4 trillion special government bonds

Hu Qun, a reporter from the Economic Observation Network, "consumption is the key to starting the economy. Now the bottleneck of economic growth is not supplying." On August 5th, the Dean of Peking University National Development Institute, the executive director of the South South Academy, and the director of the China Economic Research Center Yao Yang said at the fourth Yanqi Lake Forum hosted by Yanqi Lake Research Institute that the current situation of the Chinese economy is that the supply -side capacity is overcapacity, the demand -side investments are weak and the consumption is weak. It is recommended that the government issued 1.4 trillion special consumer Treasury bonds, which is mainly issued to low -income families and unemployed people who have a greater impact on the epidemic.

"The form of issuance is better, and it can also be consumer coupons, but the use of consumer coupons needs to be more widely used." Yao Yang said in an exclusive interview with the Economic Observation Network during the above meeting that the direct effect of issuing cash was to drive economic growth by 1.4 1.4 The indirect effect depends on the consumer multifacker. Based on the 3-5 times multiplication of the consumer coupon issued in recent years, the cash multiplication effect will be smaller. It is also 28 trillion yuan. In this way, it will neither cause inflation, but also promote GDP growth in the second half of the year.

Promoting consumption: it is better to issue cash

How to regain consumption? "I don't have any other good ways except for paying money." Yao Yang said.

In Yao Yang's view, since the epidemic, the policy has always focused on the supply side, but the current national capacity is overcapacity and the products are slow. If the production capacity is also encouraged to produce more, it is obviously not in line with the principles of economics.

At the demand side, due to the severe employment situation, revenue decline, and expected to be pessimistic, so that savings rise and further reduce consumption. According to data on July 11, the central bank showed that residents' deposits increased by 10.33 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 2.88 trillion yuan year -on -year.

On June 29, the central bank released a survey report on the urban reserve questionnaire in the second quarter of 2022. The results showed that the income experience index was 44.5%, a decrease of 5.7 percentage points from the previous quarter; ; Residents tending to "more consumption" accounted for 23.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous quarter; 58.3%of the residents who tended to "savings", an increase of 3.6 percentage points from the previous quarter.

Yao Yang said that the general view is that if you want to boost consumption, you must increase the income of residents, especially the disposable income, otherwise the consumption will not go up. However, Keynes theory shows that consumption needs to promote "autonomous consumption", that is, the consumption part that does not depend on income. Therefore, when the economic growth rate does not reach the potential growth rate, the policy should focus on improving the consumption capacity of residents. Therefore, cash should be issued to residents to promote consumption.

Yao Yang has repeatedly called for cash to promote consumption and give the source of funds. For example, one -third of the 3.65 trillion special bonds that promoted local investment this year increased consumption, and gave an average of about 1,000 yuan per person across the country. If the consumer coupon is issued, the use threshold should not be set up, otherwise it will become a discount coupon, and the effect will be greatly reduced.

"This does not require the central government to pay money, just issue local government bonds, just like the local special bonds now, the central government gives the local amount a amount, and pays it by local." Yao Yang said.

Realizing the setting of established growth throughout the year is difficult to achieve

"What is the economic estimation in the second half of the year? In the first half of the year, it increased by 2.5%. The contribution to the whole year was 1.1 percentage points, reaching a growth rate of 5.5%in the second half of the year. The economy would increase by 8%in the second half of the year. According to calculations, China's potential growth rate is about 6%, far lower than 8%. Unless the economy rebounds in the second half of 2020, the expected difficulty is extremely difficult.

However, the current Chinese economy is very different from the second half of 2020, and now it does not have the conditions to rebound at that time at that time.

"From May 2020 to mid -last year, 1/3 of our economic recovery comes from real estate, 1/3 comes from exports, and 1/3 is other. Real estate has played a very important role in the recovery of the Chinese economy." Yao Yang said The research data from Ren Zeping's team shows that real estate contribution to China's economic growth is 17.2%, of which directly contribute 7.3%and indirect contribution is 9.9%, that is, there are 178 trillion of GDPs of more than 1 million billion GDPs. It contributed directly or indirectly in real estate. The real estate industry chain is extremely long. The upstream industries include reinforced cement coatings, and the downstream industries are longer, such as decoration, furniture, electrical appliances, etc.

“过去一年间消费起不来，特别是今年消费下降，我觉得跟房地产下跌是很有关系的，一个巨大的消费动力没有了。”姚洋表示，实际上，虽然多种数据显示，中国的Housing conditions have improved very much, but the per capita residence area is still lower than Japan, and the quality of housing is much lower than that of developed countries.

First stabilize real estate

In the first half of the year, China's car sales were 1.2057 million, a year -on -year decrease of 6.6%; domestic mobile phone shipments cumulatively 136 million units, a year -on -year fell 21.7%; domestic tourism revenue (total tourism consumption) was 1.17 trillion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 28.2%. The sales of commercial houses were 6607.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.9%; of which, residential sales fell by 31.8%.

If the economic growth rate of the second half of the year has reached a potential growth rate of 6%, it can only contribute 3.3 percentage points in the second half of the year, and the annual GDP growth rate is about 4.4%. How to make efforts to promote economic growth in the second half of the year? "It is still important to stabilize real estate." Yao Yang said that in the first half of this year, real estate sales in the top 100 real estate fell by 51%, and the scale of land acquisition decreased by 60%year -on -year. Therefore, other industries must increase excessive growth to make up for the shortage of real estate, which is very difficult.

"Stabilizing the real estate industry is still very, very important. If it is unstable, it is very likely to evolve a financial turmoil." Yao Yang said that in the second half of the year, if the Chinese economy wants to recover, a long -term epidemic prevention mechanism must be found. To do this, the economy cannot recover stably.

In response to how to establish a long -term epidemic prevention mechanism, Yao Yang gave several suggestions:

First, we should turn the current "clear society" into a "social activity surface clear". Coupled with the word "activity", people who participate in economic activities cannot be infected. Public places implement 3 days or 7 days of nucleic acid negative requirements. Now nucleic acid detection outlets have been very dense, and the public has accepted it. If the infection is detected, the home or transfer to the square isolation to keep the social activity surface without infection.

Second, change the current monitoring of the community and even in accordance with the classification of administrative divisions to monitoring according to the community. It is best to go further and accurately monitor the units of residential buildings. Now many places are directly isolated when they see people from Beijing and Shanghai, and the blow is too large. How can the economy be able to survive?

Third, no longer isolates on a large scale. Pulling thousands of people to isolation elsewhere, the cost is huge, and it can be isolated in the square cabin on the spot.

Finally, to gradually open international travel, China cannot beolate the world. In fact, China has not been isolated from the world in the past two years.

"I resolutely oppose the statement that the world is decomposed to China. Data show that China is linked to the world, not decoupled." Yao Yang said that China's exports have a strong growth rate, and the connection with the world is strengthening, and the decoustal theory is not established.

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