Strong outbreak!This sector may become the new main line -Daida Dialogue Dr. Niu

Source: WeChat public account "Daida" (WeChat public account ID: daoda1997)

This week, the A -share was suppressed as a whole. The three major indexes rose back. All the weekly K -line accepted the cross stars, which was in sharp contrast to the ups and downs of the market in the previous two weeks. While the index is heated, a semiconductor sector that has resonated with the market has appeared. The concept of autonomous controllable concepts led by it is becoming the main direction of capital switching attacks.

So, is the current market bottom? Can the semiconductor sector become the new main line leading the market? Is there a chance to have a new energy track in the past? What other potential directions are worthy of attention? Today, Dr. Niu and Dago discussed the topics that everyone cared about.

Dr. Niu: Hello, hello, this week, the bottom of A shares has risen, especially the three major indexes on Friday to collect the Zhongyang line. This strong rise has driven the market to warm up the market. Is the market still bottomed out today?

Daida: Friends who have been reading Dogo's investment notes this week should know that starting from Tuesday, my positioning of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is to make a 5 -minute box of box shock. Even if the market has risen on Friday From the lower edge of 5 minutes to the upper edge, the overall structure has not changed, so my point of view has not changed -the market has not bottomed out.

Of course, the status quo of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has not changed, and it does not mean that there are no good marginal changes. Judging from the market performance on Friday, there are still some good phenomena, such as: the continuous net outflow before the end of the funds of the north, and began to use the bottom; It is dominated by institutional funds, and a large number of retail investors are still watching; large finance can stabilize, and to a certain extent, it also prevents the possibility of further decline in the index.

However, these subtle marginal changes in the market cannot be used as the basis for our transactions, and the ultimate dependence must be its own trading system. At the level of transaction, it can be slower, so don't worry too much, so as not to be regarded as the market's emotions.

On Thursday, I mentioned the two ways to break through the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index: one is to break down and set up, creating a new low chance of decline in decline; Chance. At present, the location of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is very subtle. It happens to be near the upper edge of the box in this 5 minutes. If it can be stabilized here, there will be kinetic energy that continues to attack. However, as long as the current 5 -minute case of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is not broken, it must be controlled in the position.

In addition, you can also observe whether it is bottomed out and end this wave of adjustments from the perspective of moving average. If the SSE Index can stand on these two moving average next week, it can be judged that the adjustment of this wave of adjustment is over, and the new market market may start.

If you can't stand on the market, the market will continue to be weak, so be careful of the common rhythm of the disadvantaged market: rapid rise and slow down, and it can be clearly seen from the recent market transaction amount. It is not easy to twist. We must be alert to the box structure that continues to be pulled back in the short term and continues to shake for 5 minutes. Once this happens, you must be careful of the possibility of a new low in the index.

Dr. Niu: This week, a very eye -catching sector -semiconductor has appeared in the market. Its strengthening has also led to the strengthening of domestic alternative concepts. Will this direction be the main line to lead the market in the next stage? Are there any other directions to pay attention?

Daida: On Thursday, there were two hotspots in the market: UHV and semiconductors. From the perspective of the day, UHV was stronger than semiconductors. However, from the closing bidding and opening on Friday, this differentiation began to appear. The opening of the UHV leader was lower than expected, and the semiconductor jumped into the limelight and became the strongest section of Friday. This section that is switched by funds and generates resonance with the index is obviously to attract attention.

After a sharp rise on Friday, the topic of semiconductors continued to ferment on weekends. However, it is gratifying that there is no scene of a thousand -person conference on the new energy sources before, and the market differences are relatively large, and it is not too hot.

At present, the differences are mainly concentrated in the difficulty of fundamental and technological breakthroughs: the chip is in the downward period of prosperity. Except for the vehicle MCU and IGBT, everything else is destocking, especially consumer electronics, video and radio frequency chips; It is also very large, it cannot be achieved in the short term, and lack of fundamental support.

These views are definitely right, but now the speculation of the chip is a domestic replacement. Since the market recognizes this logic, we follow the choice of funds. From the direction of market hype, it is also in line with this logic, including lithography machines, etching machines, cleaning equipment, Chiclet advanced packaging, high -end photoresist, special electronic gas, EDA, and even domestic software and digital currencies.

Moreover, Dago's reminder of the opportunity of the semiconductor sector was far before Friday. In the process of the index decline, this section that uses a horizontal shock to deal with the downward pressure on the market can be treated as opportunities. Semiconductor, computer applications, etc. are all such a structure.

From a more detailed perspective, the semiconductor and component sectors also appeared the structure of the size and resonance I mentioned many times before. In addition, on Wednesday, a semiconductor was rushing and falling, and a lot of bombing plates appeared in the internal stocks of the sector. At that time, I also made two categories. As long as it can be stabilized near the Shangying Line, it may become the new main line. After the semiconductor rose on Friday, there is a high probability that it is differentiated. The key is that the viewing sector can carry differentiation. If the sector index can fluctuate up in the process of differentiation, it is likely to generate demon stocks. To come out of the semiconductor sector, you cannot just rely on one faucet. At present, the highest gradient of the market is 5 boards, followed by 4 and 3 boards, and there are only one target. That means that in the gradient of the market 2 on Friday, there is a probability that it will be born.

The relationship between the index and the plate is complementary. To strengthen the index, there must be new hotspots to relay. From the current situation, semiconductors have great hope to relay. However, for the entire market, it cannot be strengthened by the semiconductor sector, because the weight of this sector is limited, and other sections with a certain weight are needed to assist.

From the perspective of the market this week, both military and securities have a change. Military workers are the idea of ​​the midline. As for the logical level, friends should be more clear. Maintain well. For Great Finance, I think that it is mainly the arbitrage thinking when the capital is high and low. The securities sector is currently in a downward trend and needs to be observed.

The biological product sector is active. On the news, with the approval of the Medical and Health Bureau of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, children from 6 months to 3 years old can start in vaccination with China Koxing New Crown Vaccine. The new crown vaccine sector index ’s Zhongyang line on Friday, recovering multiple average lines and stabilizing, and rushing to the support level of the dense transaction area. It is expected to form the bottom and can keep attention.

In addition, the two sectors of the new energy track and the vehicle, Dago feels that it should be treated cautiously in the short term, especially the power equipment sector, which still cannot get rid of the possibility of supporting the dense transaction area before the visit. While paying attention to the hotspot sector, you can consider the superposition of the new and secondary stocks. The nine days and 6 days of Huada have doubled the demonstration effect. Some new stocks with good morphology can be tapped.

Dr. Niu: On weekends, the epidemic data in some areas showed bad signs. Many friends understood as sharpness. How do you think?

Reaching: The data of the Sanya epidemic is really worrying, but compared with Shanghai, its impact on A shares may not be so great, don't worry too much. However, the news of the epidemic will inevitably bring a sharpness to tourism, hotel catering, consumption, etc., especially in Hainan, the biggest impact is the concept of duty -free shops.

But overall, the above sections themselves have not increased greatly. Many of them belong to the bottom shock, and the impact is only short -term, and there is no probability that it may not be able to fall.

Compared with the epidemic data, it is actually CPI data and social fusion data that has a greater impact on the market next week. Data such as CPI, PPI, new loans, M2, and social financing will be announced in July, which will directly affect the central bank's monetary policy. According to the forecast of securities firms, the CPI is expected to continue to rise year -on -year, PPI is slower or slower, and the growth rate of M2 is expected to continue to rise.

In general, the current market cannot see a large risk. The main tone of the market is still a differentiation structural market. You can keep up with the main line. Find the track and tap the potential varieties to really eat meat; otherwise The direction is wrong, try hard. In terms of strategy, control the position, but just chase and kill.

(Zhang Daoda)

According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, this note does not involve any operating suggestions, and the risk of entering the market should be borne.

Daily Economic News

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