Good than expected!The latest data from the customs was released, and exports increased by 23.9%in July.

Author:Broker China Time:2022.08.07

In July, my country's foreign trade import and export growth accelerated.

On August 7, the General Administration of Customs announced that in July, the total value of my country's imports and exports was 3.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.6%. Li Kuiwen, director of the Department of Statistics of the General Administration of Customs, said that in July, the import and export of RCEP trading partners in July increased by 18.8%year -on -year, driving the overall import and export increase of 5.6 percentage points. RCEP officially implemented this year, providing new momentum for regional economic recovery and development.

In July, the number of foreign trade enterprises with import and export performance accelerated year -on -year. The import and export of various market entities have increased year -on -year.

However, market participants still have some concerns about the later foreign trade performance. Analysis believes that short -term foreign trade should be able to maintain double -digit growth year -on -year growth. However, you need to be alert to some temporary factors that may subscribe after entering the fourth quarter. The potential rapid interest rate hike pace of the United States, Europe and other countries and regions may curb overseas demand overseas and bring downward pressure on China's foreign trade exports in the middle.

RCEP dividends appeared, and the overall import and export increased by 5.6 percentage points in July

According to customs statistics, the total value of my country's foreign trade imports and exports was 23.6 trillion yuan in the first seven months, a year -on -year increase of 10.4%. The year -on -year growth rate returned to double digits.

In July, my country's total import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.6%. In my country, the export of RCEP trading partners was 1.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.8%year -on -year, and the overall import and export increased by 5.6 percentage points.

The "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement", that is, RCEP takes effect on January 1 this year and is the world's largest free trade zone. Many foreign trade enterprises have benefited from dividends such as tariffs, customs clearance, and trade investment facilitation brought by RCEP.

Li Kuiwen said that RCEP further deepened regional economic interconnection and trade investment cooperation, providing new momentum for regional economic recovery and development.

In the past seven months, the import and export of countries along the “Belt and Road” countries increased by 19.8%year -on -year, and the 14 other members of RCEP increased by 7.5%year -on -year.

Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told reporters that the effectiveness of RCEP in July has a prominent manifestation of the favorable imports and exports in my country.

From the perspective of other trading partners, the total trade value of major trading partners in my country, ASEAN, the European Union, the United States, and South Korea increased by 13.2%, 8.9%, 11.8%and 8.9%, respectively.

Export growth in July is better than market expectations

According to customs statistics, the exports of 2.25 trillion yuan in July in July, an increase of 23.9%, and the export increased by 18%at the price of US dollars.

Export performance in July is better than market expectations. Pang Yan, chief economist and director of the research department of the Digang Federation, said that in terms of exports or import points or from major trade objects such as ASEAN, the European Union, the United States Signs of better rebound recovery. This confirms the good performance of various export forward -looking indicators such as China -Hong Kong Association's cargo throughput and South Korean export data.

"Several positive factors that promote China's foreign trade exports in June are still continuing. Under the background of the United States and Europe 'actual negative interest rates', corporate and residential departments have recovered consumption in advance. After the restoration, the recovery of production and the release of the backlog of backlogs have effectively supported China's foreign trade exports. "Pang Yan said.

Zheng Houcheng, director of the Institute of British Securities Research, told reporters that although Morgan Chase global manufacturing PMI and CRB indexes were under pressure, it was still in the expansion range or relatively high, which showed that global demand still supported my country's exports. At the same time, exchange rates and base factors have also supported exports.

Bai Ming said that due to the new crown epidemic, the global industrial chain supply chain is still unstable, and China has obvious advantages. my country's Yangtze River Delta region and the Pearl River Delta region are operating steadily, providing a favorable foundation for the increase in import and export.

From the perspective of domestic regions, in the first seven months of this year, the total imports and exports of three provinces and one city in the three provinces of the Yangtze River Delta were 8.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.7%year -on -year, and the growth rate was 2.5 percentage points accelerated.

The number of foreign trade companies in imports and exports has accelerated year -on -year growth rate

According to customs statistics, the number of foreign trade enterprises with imports and exports in the first seven months, 526,000 foreign trade enterprises, an increase of 5.8%year -on -year, further increased from the growth rate of 5.5%last month.

From the perspective of statistical data, in the first 7 months, the import and export amount of private enterprises, foreign -invested enterprises and state -owned enterprises increased year -on -year. Among them, the import and export of private enterprises was 11.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.3%, accounting for 50%of our total foreign trade value, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the same period last year. The General Administration of Customs pointed out that the rapid growth and proportion of private enterprises' imports and exports.

Li Kuiwen previously said that my country's foreign trade can achieve steady growth. An important support is the effective stimulus of the vitality of various foreign trade markets.

Bai Ming said that the growth and export performance foreign trade enterprises have increased their confidence in participating in foreign trade entities.

In the later period, Zheng Houcheng believed that Morgan Chase global manufacturing PMI, the American ISM manufacturing PMI, and the euro zone manufacturing PMI were expected in August to continue to decline, which put a certain pressure on my country's export growth rate. The high probability of international oil prices will continue to decline, and the export growth rate of exports in August will also be on the margin of price angle. However, the exchange rate factor will still be the support of the later import and export performance.

Pang Yan said that in the short term, foreign trade should maintain double -digit growth year -on -year.However, you need to be alert to some temporary factors that may subscribe after entering the fourth quarter. The potential rapid interest rate hike pace of the United States, Europe and other countries and regions may curb overseas demand overseas and bring downward pressure on China's foreign trade exports in the middle.Responsible editor: tactics

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