CITIC Securities: Medicine and Consumption gradually have a slowly fundamental left layout, and short -term growth manufacturing is more oriented to semiconductor and military industry

Wen ｜ Qiu Xiang Qin Peijing Yang Fanqiang Li Shihao

Yang Jiaji Contact: Xu Guanghong

In the process of finding new balance in August, the capital game was still fierce, and the market fluctuations were still large. The current industry and track valuation differentiation is expanding. Due to limited incremental funds, the market adjustment game will continue. On the one hand, from the characteristics of structural differentiation, the expectation of economic recovery slope is gradually undergoing, and the growth style preference has formed a highly consistent consensus. The advantages of growth and manufacturing at the end of April are not obvious. The degree of valuation differentiation in the segments inside the track sector is also increasing. On the other hand, from the characteristics of the fund game, the active private equity position has maintained a high level, the new issuance of public offering is limited, and the inflow of foreign capital has slowed down. It is expected that the semiconductor and military industry will quickly become the new main line. Low will appear, and medicine and consumption will gradually slowly have funds on the left side. In terms of configuration, it is recommended to adhere to the balanced layout of growth manufacturing, medicine and consumption, and short -term growth manufacturing is more biased towards semiconductor and military industry.

Current industry and track

The valuation differentiation is expanding

1) The expectation of recovery slope is gradually renovating, and the growth style preference has formed a highly consistent consensus. Since the end of July, the market's expectations of the easing policy in the second half of the year have begun to correct. Under the relatively low economic growth environment, the scarcity of growth attributes has increased. New and highly consistent consensus. At the index level, since July, the section of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 has fallen by 9.3%, and the increase in science and technology 50 in the same period has reached+4.7%, and the growth index has obviously accounted for significantly. At the industry level, semiconductor equipment, semiconductor materials, automobile parts, photovoltaic equipment, domesticized innovation, and automation equipment have reached 21.4%, 10.7%, 9.1%, 8.8%, 2.8%, 1.2%, respectively. Consumer services, business retail, food and beverages, light industry manufacturing, and pharmaceutical industries in the same period reached 13.8%, 8.5%, 8.2%, 7.4%, and 6.0%, respectively. Investors' transactions in the track industry can be based on pure long -term vision, while non -popular industries need real catalysis.

2) Growth manufacturing at the end of April is not obvious at the end of July. The reimbursement of the growth and manufacturing sector is significantly stronger than the pharmaceutical and consumer sector. We are sampled by the main stocks covered by the industry group of CITIC Securities Research Department, and the growth and manufacturing (covering new energy, automotive industry chain, semiconductor, etc.) has increased by -1.2%to 132.0%at the end of April, with a median number of 35.6%; the pharmaceutical sector (Innovative medicine, Chinese medicine, CXO, medical service, medical device, etc.) The repair amplitude is -1.2%to 132.0%, and the median is 12.0%. -7.6%~ 26.3%, the median is 10.1%. From the perspective of valuation, the cost -effective advantage of growth and manufacturing in April this year is not obvious at the end of July. From the perspective of the industry group of the CITIC Securities Research Department, the growth manufacturing sector stock 2023 dynamic P/E is 7 times to 39 times, and the composite profit growth rate will be 17%to 89%in the next two years. It is 0.9; the consumption sector stock 2023 dynamic P/E is 10 to 39 times, corresponding to the growth rate of composite profitability in the next two years, 20%~ 314%, PEG median number is 0.9; the pharmaceutical sector stock 2023 dynamic P/E is at 13 at 13 It is more to 50 times, corresponding to the growth rate of compound profitability in the next two years, 11%~ 44%, and the median PEG is 1.6.

3) The degree of valuation differentiation in each segment of the track sector is also expanding. The dynamic valuation in the fields of steam zero, photovoltaic and other segments is significantly higher than that of semiconductor and some military tracks. The current dynamic P/E of automobile chassis, car parts, inverters, TOPCON and other current dynamic P/E has been in 2017 to the present. 78.9%, 70.7%, 67.1%, and 65.8%are divided, while the dynamic P/E of the missiles and aviation issues in the military sector is only 33.1%and 28.6%. Pass. The active public offering in 2022Q2's position changes also matches this valuation differentiation, and continues to increase the positions of new energy, power and equipment, automotive industry chain (entire vehicle+parts) and other industries. warehouse. In general, the automotive and new energy industry chain and other sectors present the characteristics of more crowded positions and higher valuations, and semiconductors and military workers are relatively low.

Due to limited incremental funds

The market adjustment game will continue

1) Active private equity positions maintain a high level, the new issuance of public offering is limited, and the inflow of foreign capital fluctuates greatly. According to the investigation of CITIC Securities channels, small and medium -sized private equity positions continue to fluctuate at about 77%, and the space for continuing to increase positions is limited. Public funds new equity products are the normal state of 2019 ~ 2021. The new distribution scale has not significantly recovered due to the strong market rebound in May to June. It is expected that the channel side may still take a certain time to restore the confidence of customers' equity products. The inflow of northbound funds has slowed again since July. The net outflow of foreign investment in July was 13.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 66.2%from June, and a total net outflow of 7.3 billion yuan in the 5 trading days in August; trading foreign capital turned to a net outflow of 32.4 billion yuan in July, which basically hedged 6 6 The part of the monthly net inflow (about 32.5 billion yuan). In mid-July, the purchase of overseas funds has declined significantly. In the past three weeks, it has been converted to a certain amount of net redemption. The corresponding net application rates are -0.21%,+0.04%, and -0.20%, respectively. The strength weakens again. 2) The section of the interior of the track sector continues. With the lack of funds for incremental agencies, the marginal pricing for active private equity has become stronger and stronger since this year, and changes in the micro -structure of market capital style have continued to sink at the behavior level. Based on the static PE in the past 10 years, the current valuation levels of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, CSI 1000, and the National Stock Exchange 2000 are 10, 12, 31, and 41 times, respectively. , 13%and 44%. From the perspective of the industry structure, CSI 1000 and other small -scale broad -foundation indexes are more biased towards the growth and manufacturing field compared to the large -scale broad -foundation index of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. And computer. As the price of white horse stocks in the track stocks becomes more and more comprehensive, investors are cautious about the sector with higher economic correlation with the left layout, and small and medium -sized market value companies in the track sector have become the whereabouts of the position.

3) Semiconductor and military workers quickly become the new main line. The internal valuation differentiation of the track sector has increased, causing the rapid rotation inside the sector, and the consensus of the new main line has gradually begun to form a new main line under the catalysis of some events. Under the background of the U.S. Congress passed by the chip bill, the domestic semiconductor industry's domestic replacement acceleration. The Electronics Group of CITIC Securities Research Department believes that we are currently in the stage of great change in the global semiconductor supply chain. On the one hand, in the context of increasing policy subsidies in various countries, the expansion of production capacity continues to increase, and the expansion of the production of equipment companies has benefited significantly; on the other hand, on the other hand, it is on the other hand; In the context of exerting external restrictions, the security of the supply chain has attracted the focus. The suppliers of local equipment materials and component parts will undertake more local demand and continue to increase the share. Affected by geographical factors, the relatively low valuation military workers have received market attention. According to the view of the CITIC Securities Military Group, the military industry sector has a stable growth in the next 2 to 3 years, especially the military passive components of downstream demand volume, aviation equipment iteration and installation of military aviation forging.

4) Pharmaceutical and consumption gradually have high -cut funds to slowly lay out the left side. For the pharmaceutical sector, the policy level, after the previous 6 batches of drug collection of drugs, the purchase of volume has entered a new stage of normalization and institutionalization. "Sexuality" concerns or ease; at the valuation level, after nearly a year of adjustment, the preliminary industry valuation bubble has also been effectively digested; at the market level, the US stock market Birth department ETF-SPDR (XBI) has rebounded sharply from the bottom 44.26%, far away, far away, far away, far away, far away, far away Ultra -width index. For the consumer sector, in terms of phased, local epidemic is still the most critical factor affecting the trend of consumer prosperity, but the epidemic prevention policy is also constantly responding to accurate response, further implementing the "new coronary virus pneumonia prevention and control scheme (ninth edition ninth edition ninth edition ) "Become the focus of work in the future. With the further emergence of the steady growth effect and the weakening of normalized epidemic prevention, the slow improvement of the consumer sector is unchanged.

Adhere to the balance of growth manufacturing, medicine and consumption

Short -term growth manufacturing is more biased towards semiconductor and military industry

In August, the A -share was still looking for a new balance and condensing a new consensus. During the period, the funds game intensified, and the market fluctuations were still large. In the process of tuning the game, the track sector is expected to present the characteristics of the market value, and the main line will shift from the tram and new energy chain to the early stagnation of the semiconductor and military sector that has recently catalyzed frequently. In addition, the pharmaceutical and consumer sector On the orbit that has been slowly repaired by policy expectations and economic expectations, some high -cut funds are expected to choose the left side to gradually deploy valuation repair. Pay attention to the selection of specific varieties: ① The field of growth and manufacturing focuses on semiconductor (semiconductor, materials) that has been continuously improved in domesticization, and military industry (military electronics, materials) with improvement of operations and continuous performance of performance. Still high chemical materials. ② The pharmaceutical industry has eased with the impact of the policy, or the staged valuation repair market, focusing on innovative drugs, medical devices and medical services. ③ The consumption sector still pays attention to the two main lines. One is the slow repair (aviation, hotel) of the early epidemic damage industry, and the other is the subdivision industry that still maintains high prosperity in the context of the local epidemic (liquor, outdoor products, small appliances, beauty, beauty, beauty, beauty, beauty The makeup industry chain and human resources services).

Risk

The domestic epidemic situation has repeatedly exceeded expectations; frictions in the fields of science and technology trade and finance in China and the United States have intensified; domestic policies and economic recovery are less than expected; macro -liquidity at home and abroad exceed expectations;Editor -in -chief: Wang Lulu

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