Daily excellent fresh retreat, formation of fresh retail development watershed

Text | Shen Tu

The daily freshness of 10 billion losses in three years is the Internet ’s money -burning model in the field of fresh retail. Daily trials and errors of the best fresh people are ending the expansion of fresh retail money, and the essence of the track players and capital returning to the freshness of the freshness: one must make money, and the other must be people's livelihood.

People always have to eat vegetables. Due to the epidemic and other reasons, they are more and more willing to use mobile phones to buy vegetables. From a social perspective, the last mile of the modernization of fresh retail agriculture is an important part of the national agricultural strategy. From this fundamental logic, the verification of the daily prefectures has given more fresh players with a loose environment after the capital burn money and the strong reminder of rational expansion.

Recently, the daily "first shares of fresh e -commerce" daily, after shutting down the rapids of the rapid shutdown business, it has reported that the company has disbanded a series of news such as local dissolution and capital disconnection chain. It is reported that more than 300 employees are currently in labor arbitration daily, and they arrears of suppliers' funds or over 1.6 billion.

Daily "Great Retreat" and the shrinkage of the business of Ding Dong's nationwide nationwide, many people are worried about the blue ocean market in the eyes of this Internet capital. How can fresh fresh e -commerce companies get rid of profitability? Where is the road?

Daily Youxian breaks the "front warehouse myth"

As the original ancestor of the "front warehouse" model, after setting up the first front warehouse in Beijing in November 2015, it quickly replicated across the country. The front warehouse refers to a small and medium -sized warehouse distribution center near the community, and then provides a warehouse distribution model that is distributed to home as soon as 30 minutes from the center. The 30 -minute "rapid" service seems to meet the needs of some consumers with extreme requirements for some fresh delivery time.

The front warehouse mode heavy assets and investment, although greatly shortened the time of fresh delivery, has also greatly increased the cost of the last mile performance. At the same time, the front position is remote and there is no natural passenger flow. In order to obtain traffic, the platform must continue to increase subsidy drainage. Although this method of high -performance, high operation fees, and low gross profit, although it seems to create a "extreme" consumption experience, it actually puts the platform into a huge loss of death. The larger the scale, the greater the loss.

As of 2020, the daily freshness business covered 20 cities, with a layout of 1,500 front warehouses. The daily prospectus shows that the performance cost is the largest head of the company's operating costs, which once accounted for 34.9%of the total revenue. According to the research data of Northeast Securities, the performance cost of the front warehouse model is three times that of the traditional center e -commerce company, two times the platform e -commerce, and 6 times that of community group purchases.

From 2018 to 2020, the daily net losses were 2.232 billion yuan, 2.909 billion yuan, and 1.649 billion yuan, respectively. It is expected that the net loss may exceed 3.7 billion yuan in 2021. It took just 4 years, and the daily freshly burned more than 10 billion yuan.

Ding Dong, who is also a "front warehouse" model, is not optimistic. From 2019 to 2021, Ding Dong's net losses were 1.873 billion yuan, 3.177 billion yuan, and 6.43 billion yuan, respectively, with a loss of nearly 11.5 billion yuan in three years. In order to reduce the damage, Ding Dong has closed down Hang Langfang, Tangshan, Guangdong Zhongshan, Qingyuan, Zhuhai, Tianjin, and Xuancheng, Anhui Xuancheng, and Luzhou, in the past 2 months. At the same time, Ding Dong bought vegetables, and worked hard to climb out of the lunar mud by adjusting the product structure, broadening consumer scenarios, and re -investment prefabricated dishes.

During the first quarter of 2020, the two front warehouses of Ding Dong and Daily Youxian had a loss rate of about 10%(Daily Fresh-11.07%, Ding Dong -9.41%), but the epidemic ended at the end of the epidemic situation. After that, the loss rate was returned to its original shape. In 2020, the loss rate is still above 25%under the stimulation of the epidemic (daily-26.9%, Ding Dong-28%), and the loss in the first quarter of 2021 is as high as 35%or more or more (Daily-39.28%, Ding Dong -36.43%).

The front warehouse has been sought after by Internet capital as one of the "most promising" fresh e -commerce models. Therefore Youxian's "defeat" is quickly expanded by the front warehouse built by capital to disintegrate.

Internet money burning model is not suitable for fresh e -commerce

Entrepreneurs know that good business models have accumulated effects, and investment can be exchanged for customers to retain. The bad business model cannot bring money to the corresponding business value. The feathers left by the front warehouse burning money are also warning that all practitioners: the common law of burning money on the Internet is not suitable for fresh retail.

At the level of fresh business business, the Internet money burning model brings the "three over -over" of the industry, allowing the industry to get rid of the normal development track.

First, it promises to achieve a 30 -minute speed, providing a "excessive consumption experience" that is departure. Fresh e -commerce companies blindly follow the rapid delivery of takeaway. The delivery time has reached the next day and 1 hour to the fastest 30 minutes. But unlike takeaway, most families' fresh consumption is more planned than takeaway, because takeaway can be eaten immediately, and fresh freshness needs to be processed. Fresh speed is only one of the needs of consumers. Tuan and Hema gradually chose a major reason for the next day. The 30 -minute speed of the "over -consumption experience" brings high performance costs to low -grim fresh fresh platforms, becoming the crux of the platform's profit dilemma.

Second, blind subsidies, blindly pursuing users, bring "excessive marketing". A box of eggs subsidized by fresh e -commerce platforms can indeed attract a large number of wool party users, but they cannot replace users. In other words, blind price wars are allowed to choose which one is cheaper, and there is no loyalty. Burning money not only led to low survival of users, but also destroyed the ecology of the entire industry and harmed the interests of peers and farmers. Only a few of the a few fresh and thick fresh e -commerce platform benefited in the short term. On the user side, although users feel benefited in the short term, once the fresh e -commerce grows, it will soon become a "harvester", and the money that is subsidized will be recovered. Third, eager to harvest the market brings "excessive expansion". In the gameplay of traditional Internet, the best way to solve the problem of business loss is to expand. As long as the growth rate is guaranteed, other problems are solved. In the past few years, with the daily capital assistance, the daily expansion has expanded rapidly. It has radiated from Beijing to North China, East China, South China, and Central China. During the peak period, the business covered about 20 cities and had about 5,000 front warehouses. Ding Dong, which is also expanding, has covered 27 cities including Beijing, Nanjing, and Guangzhou in just a few years in just a few years.

However, it turns out that large -scale expansion does not have a huge loss for diluted costs for daily freshness and Ding Dong to buy vegetables. In the past few years, the loss of daily fresh and Ding Dong's buying vegetables has increased at least 20 billion.

Finally, based on the changes in the social environment, the Internet industry is also undergoing profound changes. Investors in the industry said that because of the "burning money" model of the Internet, the market valuation anchor is quietly changing, and from the growth of simple user growth to the definition of paying more attention to profitability.

Fresh e -commerce demand is still strong, and the market size is expected to reach more than 400 billion yuan

Although losing money is a common problem of burning money model, the market's demand for fresh e -commerce is still strong. Relevant survey results show that compared with 2021, 65.4%of consumer consumption frequency in 2022 increased, and 51.6%of consumer consumption increased.

In the past 2022, the epidemic situation has been repeated. In order to cooperate with the national epidemic prevention and control, many regions have entered static management, and the residents 'dietary days need to be resolved. Fresh e -commerce with the advantages of warehousing and distribution has become one of the important channels for residents' daily life security. For the indispensable part of the system.

In terms of national policies, from the "14th Five -Year Plan" e -commerce development plan in 2021, to the "Central No. 1 Document" in 2022, the government has introduced a number of policies in agricultural products, cold chain construction, production and sales cooperation, and encourages agriculture to encourage agriculture to encourage agriculture Strengthen close cooperation between upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, strengthen the construction of infrastructure and facilities, etc., provide users with higher quality products and services, and encourage the healthy development of the fresh and retail industry.

The predicament encountered in the front warehouse also promoted the industry to become rational, jumping out of the "pit" that blindly pursued the scale, and gradually entered the second half of efficiency and profit. At present, the industry is currently in the industry's regional profit. For example, Hema and East China Fresh Fresh Retail Enterprises Fresh Fresh Fresh Fresh Fresh Fresh Fresh Fresh Fresh Fresh.

In the first quarter of fiscal year (the second quarter of 2022) announced by Ali, Hema GMV (total product sales) increased by more than 30%year -on -year. It has achieved profitability for four consecutive months. Public information also shows that the Food Fresh has continued to make a profit on the main market in Suzhou since 2019. In the first half of 2022, the group's profit was achieved.

Fresh e -commerce future: both people's livelihood and profitability

The essence of fresh e -commerce is selling vegetables, and the supply chain is agricultural. This determines that the fresh e -commerce must have the background of people's livelihood in the development process.

Vegetables hurt farmers, and vegetables are expensive to hurt the people. Fresh e -commerce needs to be balanced between user needs, enterprise development, and farmers' needs. At the same time, the development of the agricultural industry chain of the fresh supply chain needs to work hard from multiple angles such as the cold chain, the agricultural industry chain, and the traceability. Cooperate of practitioners.

Chen Hudong, a special researcher at the E -Commerce Research Center of the Internet Scripture, believes that the dilemma of fresh e -commerce is a large extent a pain point of the pain point of the cold chain market in my country -infrastructure, cold chain equipment, cold chain supply chain, etc. There are great pain points to be resolved.

The development of the digital economy in recent years is accelerating the cracking of these problems. With the increasingly perfect agricultural infrastructure in my country, digitalization is empowering the upper, middle and lower parts of the fresh e -commerce industry chain, and promotes the unilateral collaboration of agricultural product warehouses, collaborative warehouses, and sales warehouses, increase agricultural product production, reduce losses, accelerate, accelerate Circulation and distribution, to open up the entire process supply chain from agricultural products to consumers, and also provide insurance preservation for the product of the fresh e -commerce platform.

In addition to fresh companies, local governments are working silently.Taking Shandong, a large agricultural province, in the past two years, in order to promote Shandong Province from a traditional agricultural province to a strong province of modern agricultural provinces, Shandong has successively introduced the "Notice of Co -promoting the Construction Plan for Modern Agricultural Strong Provinces (2021-2025)" and so on.In terms of agricultural product comprehensive production and supply capacity, improvement of agricultural science and technology equipment conditions, and the circulation of agricultural product market, investment and construction.According to the global perspective of the industrial chain, Shandong also has actively explored in digital vegetable fields, pre -production, mid -production, and post -production application, agricultural product circulation, and promoting the development of the agricultural industry chain.It is foreseeable that in the field of fresh retail, the future business model will be a more efficient and pragmatic player who will properly handle the two goals of people's livelihood and profitability.Regardless of the freshness of the Internet capital, the fresh boom is rising or retreat. Vegetable farmers always sell vegetables. People always have to eat vegetables. The vegetable market and fireworks on the mobile phone will continue.

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