Economic recovery capacity continues to increase economic growth in the second half of the year.

Reporter Wu Xiaolu

Financial data and economic data in May have been announced one after another, financial data exceeded expectations, and major economic indicators have improved marginal improvement. As a result, the market also has more expectations for the economic situation in June and the second half of the year.

In this regard, experts who were interviewed by the reporter of the Securities Daily believed that with the continued advancement of the resumption of work and the continuous promotion of the logistics, the series of measures that continued to be smooth, and the series of measures for steady growth gradually implemented. It is expected to rise quarterly.

Repeated work and re -production continues to advance

Macroeconomic indicators will continue to improve

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the marginal improvement in major economic indicators in May. Among them, investment has maintained a steady growth, manufacturing investment has shown rapidly, and infrastructure investment has rebounded sharply; import and export growth has increased rapidly, export data has rebounded sharply; consumption declines narrowed compared with April, and residents' willingness to consumption is still not strong.

"It is expected that the macroeconomic indicators will continue to improve in June." Wu Chaoming, deputy dean of the Caixin Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that on the one hand, the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation since May will continue, and enterprises will continue Accelerate the recovery of production, and the industrial chain supply chain continues to recover; on the other hand, the implementation of various policies in the early stage will accelerate.

Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, also told the Securities Daily that from the current economic situation, the main macroeconomic indicators in June will continue to improve. With the gradual improvement of the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, offline consumption will continue to recover, and consumption in June will be further improved. In addition, the rise of foreign trade data in May reflects the toughness and vitality of my country's foreign trade. It is expected that import and export in June will remain steadily.

"With the continuous advancement of resumption of work and re -production, the economy will usher in recoverable growth in June." Wang Jun, director of the China Chief Economist Forum, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that a policies for the stable economy are accelerating the landing on the ground. In effect, domestic demand will have a significant rise in marginalization, consumption will have a certain compensation recovery, infrastructure investment is also expected to continue to accelerate, and manufacturing investment will also maintain a stable development trend under the drive of strong export toughness.

"Economic recovery in June will keep the economic growth in the second quarter." Wang Jun believes that if there is no accident, the economic growth in the third quarter is expected to return to more than 5%.

Speaking of the economy in the second half of the year, Wu Chaoming believes that with the good and effective efforts of the epidemic prevention and control situation and the acceleration of policies, the economy is expected to show a "front low and stable" trend in the second half of the year. From the perspective of specific indicators, first of all, it has benefited from the influence of positive factors such as special bonds to accelerate the issuance and use of the issuance and use, abundant credit funds such as credit, the speed up of the project approval, and the continued weakening of the epidemic impact. In the next few months The demand for transformation and upgrading and retention tax refund will support the upward support of manufacturing investment; in the end, as the domestic epidemic improves, the major arteries and microcirculation of transportation and logistics are gradually connected, and the flow of personnel and factors will accelerate. It is conducive to promoting consumption steadily.

Liu Feng, chief economist of bank securities, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that the economic data in May had significantly improved in May, indicating that fiscal policy and monetary policy had played a role. In the next step, infrastructure investment needs to further develop new infrastructure and "soft infrastructure"; in terms of boosting consumer demand, it is necessary to increase residents 'income, create employment opportunities, and enhance residents' consumption confidence.

Wen Bin said that with the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation, the advancement of resumption of work, the continuous and smooth logistics, and the effect of the implementation of various stable growth policies, the economic recovery momentum will be further enhanced. It is expected that the economy will rise in the second half of the year.

Maintain policy continuity

Boost residents' consumption confidence

In May, financial data exceeded expectations, and both new social Rong and RMB loans increased significantly. However, from the perspective of loan incremental structure, short -term loans and bill financing capacity of enterprises have increased, and residents' medium and long -term loans are less than the same period last year.

Wu Chaoming said that the financial data overwhelmed in May to reflect three signals: one is that the monetary policy is forward, appropriate forces, and the results are initially emerged; It is still poor, and the company and residents have continued to shrink year -on -year, reflecting that the repair of corporate investment and residents' purchase of houses is still slow.

Wang Jun said that some financial data in May was slightly supermarket expectations, and the financial sector was released to actively actively stabilize the strong signal of the economic market, showing the characteristics of total amount, short -term improvement, and insufficient structure, medium and long -term optimization. The abilities and willingness are still weak.

In the next step, how will the monetary policy be exerted? Wang Jun believes that the total amount and structure, quantity and price, interest rate and exchange rate should be paid to the application. In the short term, the application of price tools in monetary policy should be more important. It is necessary to reduce interest rates as soon as possible and guide market interest rates to further decline significantly. Reduce financing costs as much as possible and reduce corporate burden.

"The current main problem is that there is insufficient credit demand, and it is difficult to solve the problem of insufficient credit demand by monetary policy alone. The financial policy needs to be responsible for the leader, and the monetary policy cooperates with the fiscal policy." Wu Chaoming suggested that subsequent appropriate increased structural monetary policy tool Support of kinetic energy.

Wen Bin said that the 5 -year LPR decreased 15 basis points. According to the new regulations of the central bank, the first mortgage interest rate can float up to 20 basis points on the basis of this. The future effect will be gradually reflected, and the growth of mortgages is expected to rise.For the enterprise's medium and long -term loan, it will be issued before the end of the new special debt quota at the end of June and basically completed before the end of August. In the next two or three months, the infrastructure project will be accelerated.Give full play to the long -term financial advantages of policy banks, and increase credit investment in new infrastructure and other fields.Liu Feng said that my country's fiscal policy and monetary policy support is large. In the next step, it is necessary to maintain the continuity of monetary and fiscal policies, stabilize the expectations of residents and enterprises, and improve corporate investment and resident consumption confidence.

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