Professor's point of view | Zhang Jianhua: The consumer finance industry is facing reshuffle and reconstruction

The consumer finance industry is facing reconstruction

Wen | Zhang Jianhua

I will talk about the development prospects of the consumer finance industry from the three levels of consumption and consumer credit.

Consumption finance is highly positively related to consumption

As the basis of consumer credit, consumption occupies an important position in the national economy. In developed countries, consumption accounts for 80%of GDP, accounting for 70 ~ 80%in my country, including consumption of three departments of government, enterprises, and residents. Among them, the consumption of the residential sector is the most important, accounting for more than 50%of my country's total consumption. The role of consumption on the economy is beyond doubt, but the role of consumer finance on consumption itself has some controversy in the academic world. Disputes mainly exist in consumer finance in the current positive pull -up effect, but after the smooth cross -period is smooth? Consumer credit may lead to advanced consumption and excessive consumption. Early over -consumption is a squeeze for later consumption. From this point of view, the stimulus of consumer credit on total consumption is actually limited. To some extent, we still need to rely on total income growth to drive the overall consumption.

I have recently read a lot of information. Although consumer finance and consumption are not causal, there is a high positive correlation. Consumer credit growth has a positive role in consumption, and it may also be the support of consumer credit itself.

How far the industry can go from macro judgment

From a macro perspective, consumer credit has a stimulating effect on consumption, but it has a certain upper limit, and it is impossible to perform consumer overdrafts unlimitedly. I recently asked students to check foreign information. Compared with the consumption of Chinese and developed countries in the consumption of 50,000 to 20,000 US dollars per capita GDP per capita GDP, it was pulled by consumer credit. This data is very interesting, basically from 48 ~ 60%. For example, when the Per capita GDP of the United States reaches 20,000 US dollars, it basically reaches 60%, and 60%of consumption is used or has a relatively stable relationship with consumer credit. But to this day, our per capita GDP is $ 12,000, and the per capita GDP of the United States is more than 40,000 US dollars, 4 times that of us. It cannot be simply said that the per capita loan between us and the United States is 5 times that we are also 1/4 of our people's GDP. In other words, if our per capita credit reaches 1/4 of the United States, our family liability ratio has reached the US level.

We have always said that the United States is a society with advanced consumption, and there are actually many social security clauses behind advanced consumption. The coverage of social security in my country is still low in rural areas, and a large number of rural population has no real protection. Therefore, I think that our consumer credit should have a proportion, family leverage is related to income. From a macro judgment, we can know how far the consumer credit can go in the future.

The gold consumption industry is facing shuffling or integration

From the perspective of the middle view, what I want to say is the reconstruction of the industry. In the past, consumer credit was a single main body. The bank was done by itself. The business model was mainly decentralized consumption of banks (credit cards or consumer loans); in the digital era, diversified consumption centered on platform -centric and online consumption -based consumption Credit subject mode. In the multi -subject competition pattern, the consumer finance industry will face shuffling or integration, which will appear new business models. I am not optimistic about the consumer finance company of the bank. There are so many resources inside the bank that are not done well. It is based on this consideration that we have dissolved the preparatory group of Huaxia Bank Consumer Finance Corporation. I believe that the future development of consumer finance companies must be those professional institutions with existing data, traffic, and technical capabilities, and they must develop misaligned with commercial banks. For example, some technology companies we participated in today have the advantages in this regard.

In the early days of traditional consumer finance, it started from housing and then car. After World War II, the United States began to sell for sale, which was the earliest prototype of consumer finance. Really large -scale consumer credit is actually the period after World War II to the end of the 1960s. During the high -speed growth stage of the US economy, a large number of advanced consumption began to appear. Especially after the issuance of the 401K clause, social security has been further strengthened, dispeling consumption concerns, and consumer credit began to grow rapidly. Therefore, the development of consumer credit actually has some conditions.

How to identify the core customer base

From a micro level, consumer finance presents two characteristics: one is that customers choose more accurate. In the digital era, there are digitalization methods to locate and choose customers. The key areas of consumption have developed from traditional housing, automobiles, home appliances to the current medical care. These consumption is generally a cross -period arrangement. In terms of economics, the arrangement of cross -period can make up for the short -term budget and resolve budget constraints. The other is the convenience of consumption. For example, credit cards, credit cards are sometimes not used to use money, but because it is convenient to swipe cards.

I have recently done some research and found that the main consumption force is mainly people aged 18 to 64. The real marginal consumption tendency is relatively high. The elderly who entered the retirement age did not have savings and began to enter the pure consumption stage. The young people who are just adults do not have so much income, but they are expected to have a lot of income, so they will consume advance. There are people who have not attended school at the age of 18 and 19, which are actually the main body of consumption. Some people do arranging smooth and outdated consumption, and some people are used to online consumption. Online consumption will show the characteristics of overdraft, short -term, small, and high -frequency. These are the focus of customer group selection.

The institution should undertake the market risk market now that there is still demand, and it should be encouraged from the policy level. Since consumer credit can be released, let it go. Although it may increase the leverage of some families in the short term, in the long run, China still has space. Why? Because of our high savings rate, our savings rate was as high as 50%higher, and now there are 45%. The family savings rate in 2020 is 45.7%, which is still the highest in the world, which gives us certain support. Of course, the proportion of household savings is relatively high, but the borrowers are not them, but the low -income family residents. Therefore, you cannot completely look at the high savings rate, because the savings rate is high and there is a large safety pad. This issue should be judged by the market entity, and the risk should be identified and undertaken by the financial institutions themselves. In terms of macro, the family savings and family leverage are still observed. As for the specific situation of each family, whether the family leverage ratio is too high, financial institutions should be investigated by themselves. What should be handed over to the market allows the market to do it. Excessive supervision of risks does not necessarily consider these factors. We also need to encourage innovation and cooperation. Platform agencies have its advantages, such as data and trading customers with clear portraits, but they have no financial strength. Financial institutions have the advantages of financial institutions, including the principles of risk control, concepts, and compliance. Therefore, it is still necessary to strengthen cooperation. The various market players can play a comparative advantage in order to improve transaction efficiency. To play a comparative advantage, the rules of data property rights and property rights need to be clarified.

Supervision cannot be ignored, because the market may fail. What is the regulatory management? Control consumer protection. For personal consumer protection, the first is to protect personal privacy protection and information, and the second is to provide fair credit in the true sense, and the third is to prevent fraud. In addition, antitrust must be done. Is there a monopoly on the platform agency? To some extent, it will indeed be developed after it is big, but it is not that it cannot be developed, but that there are some mechanism restrictions. In the era of digitalization, the platform becomes more and more concentrated is a trend, and it is also an important form of improving efficiency. However, excessive concentration will produce monopoly. In fact, the government has also done a lot in antitrust. Finally, in terms of risk prevention, the state should pay attention to the macro leverage, the regulatory authorities must be cautious, and financial institutions must be micro -prudential and more responsible responsibilities.

(This article comes from Zhang Jianhua's speech at the "Consumer Finance Industry's current Breakthrough and Long -Effective Mechanism" organized by the New Finance Alliance in the internal seminar of the New Finance Alliance.

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