The trough period is stable, when will Ali enter the upward channel?

Wen | Wang Xinxi

Source | Hot micro -reviews

Ali recently released the financial report in the first quarter of fiscal year in FY2023. Data show that this quarter's revenue was 205.55 billion yuan, which did not increase year -on -year, but surpassed the market expectations of 203.4 billion, and its profit adjustment after 34.4 billion yuan was far higher than 28.7 billion market expectations. The adjustment of net profit after adjustment was 30.3 billion. It also greatly exceeded the market's expectations of 28.4 billion.

The revenue of Alibaba China Business Branch decreased by 1%year -on -year to 141.935 billion yuan (US $ 21.190 billion). As the direct operation and other income increased by 50.06 billion yuan last year, it was equivalent to filling the former's income and surplus.

Taobao Tmall GMV fell 5%year -on -year, and Taobao Tmall's client management revenue fell 10%year -on -year, basically in line with market expectations. Cloud computing business revenue was 17.7 billion, the year -on -year growth rate dropped to 10%, which was significantly lower than the market expectations of 18.4 billion, close to 200 million profits, and lower than the market expectations of 400 million.

The GMV generated by Taobao and Taote's M2C products increased by more than 40%year -on -year, and Taoto GMV increased rapidly, exceeding 200%year -on -year.

On the whole, in addition to core e -commerce, Ali International Business, Local Life, Cainiao, and Cloud Business Revenue have slowed down, but in general, Ali still handed over a financial report beyond the market expectations. Stablize.

Of course, due to the slowdown of the macroeconomic slowdown and the downward trend at the consumption level, the capital market's expectations for Ali are very low, which is too pessimistic. Ali has surrendered more to the overall layoffs and cost reduction to increase efficiency. Relatively satisfactory financial reports.

From this, you can see Ali's pressure resistance. In the face of continuous consumption downstream trends and competitors Lin Li, and China -stock stock delisting concerns, the market emotions have permeated, and it is not easy under multiple pressures.

Although Ali's ability to e -commerce's basic market has stabilized, but the big shareholders SoftBank tossed Ali again that caused market concerns again, but despite this, from the upward trend of the overall trend of the current economy and the gradual recovery of consumption, it is in the trough period of the trough period. When Ali, when the stock price ushered in rebound is still the focus of everyone's attention.

The competition crisis in many parties in Ali, the market may overestimate the impact of short videos on the basic market of e -commerce.

Judging from the current situation of the downturn in the entire Internet industry in the past year, the industry's response to policies in the industry is excessive, from policy supervision to the downturn in macro consumption, and various factors have promoted Ali's downward trend.

After the adjustment, the Ali ecology is five vertical and two horizontal, and the five verticals are Chinese business, international business, local life, entertainment, and innovation business. The second point refers to logistics and cloud computing. Among them, China's business is the core of the domestic e -commerce business, and it has also maintained stability during the trough. International retail commercial income remained relatively high at 10.524 billion yuan, and Ali's basic disk was still stable.

From the level of market competition, the pessimism of the market lies in the source of Ali's traffic. The market has a basic prediction of Ali, that is, Ali lacks traffic, but the traffic has a great impact on Ali in the pool of social pools and short videos, but it is used as a decisive factors to predict platform e -commerce growth. Step into a one -sided misunderstanding.

The traffic can bring an effective increase to e -commerce, but the broader market of e -commerce is actually supported by consumer shopping as the core. The so -called just need this is the first reaction brand facing consumer demand. Search for Baidu, e -commerce to Ali, and socializing Tencent. This is a long -term user inertial cognition and habit. Generally, it is difficult to change.

For small items shopping, interest e -commerce can eat a part, but the impulsive shopping driven by interest e -commerce does not have rigidity. It can eat long tail and low -customer unit price products. Destiny, home, clothing and other just -needed products.

The shopping decisions of these products are relatively heavy, and the brand quality and service system and platform trust system requires support.

From the current point of view, Douyin Kuaishou has continuously created incremental increases at the level of interest and trust e -commerce. It is also eating some low -customer unit price demand, but Ali's overall e -commerce market is still stabilized.

Just as around 2018, the market predicts the Douyin short video to grab the social plate of the greetings, but now the social market is still in Tencent. Today's Taobao Tmall still contributes most of Ali's revenue and net profit. The industry has seen the traffic erosion capacity of short videos in the industry, but ignores the ecological ability and platform services of the giants, and the deeper the ecological chain will be improved.

If the first response to the future users of large e -commerce shopping and just need to shop is to go to Douyin Shopping, then Ali is really dangerous, but in fact, this is almost impossible.

The current status quo is that Douyin Kuaishou supports the occasional needs of some e -commerce markets, but the support point that e -commerce just needs is composed of systematic platform capabilities comprehensive goods supply and after -sales, service, brand trust and other systematic platform capabilities. This is undoubtedly Ali's basic capacity. From the current point of view, although Douyin fast hands and Pinduoduo have their own food, Ali's overall market has not yet been shaken.

Keep the basic market in China, find an incremental increase in foreign countries

However, Ali is now facing the reality of challenging crisis and narrowing of growth, diluted operating profits, and higher costs, including Taote's cost, and expenditure. This is beyond doubt. To stabilize the basic market in China, Ali sacrifices profit margins to make big cakes, and at the same time, letting businessmen must be a way. According to Chen Tao, an analyst of e -commerce analysts, a trend in Ali in recent years combines the business of third -party business with self -operated business. The cost is getting higher and higher.

In the past, the core of Ali was to develop third -party businesses, and the profit margin was relatively high, but now the self -operated business as a key development target will inevitably erode the company's profit margin, convert the self -operated business to the second growth curve, and make the basic disk. The cake is considered by Ali, but in the short term, the reality of cost expenditure is difficult to reverse. Ali may be difficult to maintain a high profit margin in the past.

In the past year, a part of the pressure on Ali's financial report comes from. In the period of repeated sensitivity of the outbreak of consumption, the price sensitive consumers have become more. On the one hand The service charging standard of merchants requires appropriate subsidies to ensure the profit and profitability of the merchant.

This also suppresses Ali's profit space in some respect. This is the concession that Ali must make, because the current major platforms of major platforms are inspiring to merchants.

How to prevent long -tail shopping and white card merchants and local lives are divided by Douyin fast hands, Pinduoduo and Meituan, which requires more products and service innovation to deal with.

At present, through the unique supply chain advantages, Taote connects the 1688 industrial belt, B -side merchant, and M -end factories to form a certain defense moat. From the perspective of e -commerce analysts, Ali's global users have exceeded more than more In 1.3 billion, Taote's annual active consumers exceeded 300 million, and many incremental users from the sinking market.

Taote currently has a blockage effect on Pinduoduo, can you also restrain Meituan when you are hungry, how to restrain Douyin fast hands. Although Ali has also implemented a content strategy on Taobao Tmall Cognition provides better tools and services on the merchant side, but the overall results need to be one of the core challenges that Ali will face the basic market in the future.

Of course, to make a big increase, the overseas market is also the focus of Ali's business. Going out is an inevitable path to open the situation.

From the perspective of financial reports, Ali's international e -commerce revenue increased by 7% year -on -year, but the loss increased by 3% year -on -year. According to the financial report, Ali's international retail commercial income declined mainly due to the revision of the EU VAT regulations and the depreciation of the euro to the US dollar. And the continuous impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine that caused the interruption of supply chain and logistics, which reduced the volume of speed sales orders. Some of the GMV growth and active increase in Lazada's GMV were offset to increase the income contribution.

Ali International Commercial includes international retail and wholesale business businesses such as Lazada, AliExpress, Trendyol, and Alibaba International Station. The speed -selling link is created by the world factory and China supply chain model. Relying on Ali's e -commerce experience, AliExpress has increased its influence in Spain, France, Brazil, South Korea, the United States and other places. Facing localized competition.

According to data from Alibaba International Station, more than 150 million registered members and more than 26 million active business buyers have gradually established it. However, as a TO B business, the ceiling is relatively obvious and the profit contribution is very limited.

Look at Lazada, which used to be the largest e -commerce platform in Southeast Asia. After being taken over by Ali, in 2021, its annual active consumers reached 130 million. From April to June 2022, Lazada's orders in Southeast Asia recorded 10 % of the year-on-year health growth. In fiscal 2022, Lazada's paid orders increased by 60 % year -on -year.

However, its competitors Shopee performed better. Shopee's first quarter performance report of the 20122222222 increased by 71.3 % year -on -year. Lazada was once surpassed by Shopee for a period of facing localization of localization.

At present, Ali's international commercial income accounts for 7%, which is relatively low. In the good direction, it is difficult to increase the incremental space. At present, Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea are basically Amazon's territory. Ali wants to break through in these markets. It also faces the problem of market saturation, culture and ideology. In fact, Ali can invest in heavy soldiers to fight the Southeast Asian market.

If the situation in the Southeast Asian market is opened in the future, it is expected to help Ali's overall competitiveness and network effects in the Asian market.

When the trough is stabilized, when will you step into the upward channel?

The capital market is always easy to be affected by market emotions, and market sentiment is often easy to ignore the steady growth of a company's basic disk and long -term commercial sedimentation and the ability to resist compression during the trough.

If the epidemic is three years in the trough of the Internet company in the trough, and the epidemic in the first half of this year has repeatedly become the darkest moment of the Internet giant trough. Judging from the current macro environment, the slowdown in the growth of the market has been regarded as a inevitable.

From this perspective, the valuation logic system of an Internet giant, such as Ali Tencent, has actually changed dramatically: the market's tolerance for revenue indicators has increased, and revenue in this environment is not expected to be a normal state. And if the revenue and various indicators can stabilize, it can show a stable ability, exceeding market expectations, and its valuation is expected to go to a bombardment channel. The current stock price of Ali is the market valuation given in the environment where the capital downside and the major environment are at the lowest valley. The current dynamic price -earnings ratio of Alibaba's stock is 10 times, and JD.com's dynamic price -earnings ratio is almost twice that of Alibaba. Alibaba's historical valuation shows that its dynamic price -earnings ratio has reached 30 times.

It is difficult for Ali to avoid the pressure caused by this round of economy and consumption, which naturally also affects the expected expectations of the capital market for its short -term investment prospects.

Ali's business layout is wide, but the capital market still looks at its core retail business. For longer, Ali's stock price uplook depends on the recovery of the macroeconomic economy and industry prosperity.

Judging from the current macro market environment and economic consumption recovery, the overall Internet industry is expected to slowly climb upside down and go out of the trough. Whether it is repeatedly sideways or starts to reverse the momentum. In the future, the improvement of the domestic economic situation is an inevitable trend. The bottom of the rebound only requires a signal and opportunity for economic improvement.

Ali is also using selling this year to implement its largest stock repurchase plan in history, thereby stabilizing the stock price. According to the financial report, as of the quarter of June 30, 2022, Alibaba repurchased about 38.6 million US deposit stocks for about 3.5 billion US dollars.

Judging from the current Ali's financial report and stock price performance, low valuations have become consensus. However, there are several opportunities for its overall stock price to rise. One is when the growth and revenue of overseas markets open; the other is to put it in a longer cycle to observe. Intersection Can Ali be visible in content layout? The third is when the macroeconomic and consumption recovery signal is feedback to the online economy.

If there are two signals, the nodes of Ali rebound can be seen. This may require investors to have more patient patients waiting for rebound nodes.

Author: Wang Xinxi TMT senior commentator.

- END -