Fengkou Think Tank · Chief Connection ｜ Zhong Liang Langlian: Infrastructure investment will become the most important and controllable starting point of steady growth

Liu Xiao, chief reporter of Fengkou Finance Liu Xiao

The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 28 to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy economic work in the second half of the year. The meeting emphasized that macro policies should actively actively act in expanding demand. The fiscal monetary policy must effectively make up for the lack of social demand.

At the critical point of economic recovery, we must fully implement the spirit of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, based on my country's super large -scale market advantages, actively actively actively actively consolidate the trend of economic recovery, and lay a solid foundation for the high -quality economic development. What are the main factors that restrict the lack of domestic demand? In terms of expanding demand, how should macro policies actively act? On August 4th, Fengkou Finance interviewed Pang Ye, chief economist and director of research department of Zhongguang Filver Greater China.

》》 Prefer to ensure that the stock policy is on the front layout

Fengkou Finance: According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 31, the PMI of China's manufacturing industry was 49%in July, a decrease of 1.2PCT from the previous month, falling to the contraction range, and its sub -item indicators fell to varying degrees. What do you think is the main reason for data changes?

Pang Ye: Affected by many factors such as the epidemic, unusual high temperature weather, weakened high -energy consumption industry, risk events in some industries, and slowing external needs. Features include dual weak supply and demand, decreased economic production momentum, companies' expected business expectations are slightly cautious, and employment and preparation have slowed down. However, high -tech industries (special equipment, railway ships), export chains (textile clothing, chemical fiber), etc. are still relatively good.

Affected by factors such as traditional production off -season, lack of release of market demand, low energy consumption industry prosperity, and decline in export chain prosperity, the production index and the new order index drove about 0.8 and 0.6 percentage points of PMI downward. It is the main dragging item of the PMI downward settlement of the National Bureau of Statistics this month. Both readings are less than the same period of history and have been downward for many months. In addition, the proportion of enterprises that reflect insufficient demand in the survey indicate that the demand side is weak and restricts the constraints of the demand side. The pace of recovery.

The purchase price and the purchase price of the raw materials have declined significantly and are all downward for the fourth consecutive month. Affected by factors such as the sharp decline in the price of commodities, the worsening and seeing emotions of manufacturing companies, and the weakened procurement willingness, the data presents the more obvious destocking characteristics. reading.

PMIs of large and small enterprises are in the contraction range, especially small and medium -sized enterprises have fell the most, and the stacking use of the workmanship has decreased at the same time, indicating that it must expand effective demand under the premise of stabilizing employment and market entities.

The small increase in real estate investment has driven the high prosperity of infrastructure investment. However, the rising prosperity of the construction industry failed to completely offset the effect of slowing down the pace of expansion of the service industry. Data show that the demand of the non -manufacturing employment market continues to be under pressure. Considering that the sporadic recovery of the epidemic to the service industry is disturbing and the hindrance to the construction industry, it may continue to become the main shortcoming of employment in the short term.

Fengkou Finance: The Politburo Conference emphasizes that macro policies should actively act in expanding demand. What role do you think expanded demand in the current stable economic market?

Pang Ye: We believe that the pressure of domestic demand contraction, supply impact, and expected weakness still exist, and the focus is on the insufficient effective demand. The policy will focus on expanding domestic demand in the second half of the year, and more effectively enhance the market entity of the market entity. The endogenous motivation is not to increase the short -term policy, but to give priority to ensuring that the existing policy is advanced and the incremental policy is effective. In the case of lack of effective demand, weak domestic demand growth, and variables in foreign demand, we must focus on expanding infrastructure investment, stable investment, stable demand, and stable growth through fiscal policy.

It is worth noting that the policy effect of infrastructure investment after the first half of the year is still yet to be released. According to the three -year compound growth rate, the growth rate of infrastructure investment in June was 4.4%, which was 0.2 percentage points higher than May and 6.6%below March. At the stage, we should strive to improve and optimize the space for the implementation of infrastructure investment policies to take effect. However, the future infrastructure investment space may be subject to structural changes in social security and employment expenditure, sanitary health and other fields in the fields of general public fiscal budgets, local fiscal revenue levels and expenditure capabilities. The influence and constraints. On the other hand, after strengthening the infrastructure investment, there is a certain time stagnation on the employment and income of residents, and it should attract attention in terms of policy effects.

Wind Financial: At present, what are the main reasons for restricting market demand for lack of release?

Pang Ye: At present, China's macroeconomic development is facing triple pressures such as demand contraction, supply impact, and expected weakness. The influence of the domestic epidemic is still continuous, and there are still several structural factors, which leads to some unstable and unevenness in the domestic economic recovery, and the supply and demand still face more constraints. At present, the stable recovery of the industrial economy is still not firm, and the growth momentum in terms of investment and consumption is stabilizing and recovering. The epidemic still has structural impact and scar effect on the consumption and service industry. The employment market and residents' disposable income still takes time to recover.

"" New Town Construction and New Infrastructure should be closely integrated with traditional infrastructure

Wind Financial: Actively actively actively actively act as a way to accelerate the construction of investment projects in macro policies?

Pang Ye: From the "Moderate Promotion Infrastructure Investment" proposed by the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of last year and this year's government work report, to the Central Finance and Economic Commissioner Meeting and the Central Political Bureau meeting in April proposed to build a modern infrastructure system and comprehensively strengthen the foundation for the foundation for comprehensively strengthening the foundation The construction of facilities has continued to be released and upgraded to stabilize the main body, stabilize expectations, stabilize growth, stabilize growth, regulate structure, make up for shortcomings, promote demand, and excavate potential. At present, there are still many factors at home and abroad facing my country's economic development. In the context of the turning of macro -control policies to cross -cyclical reverse cycle regulation, investment -especially infrastructure investment -will become the most important thing for my country's stable expectations and stable growth this year. , The most controllable starting point. The key role of domestic demand should be increased to increase its efforts. The policy should be appropriately moved forward and forward, and it should be arranged early, early, early implementation, and early results.

The construction of investment projects should focus on major projects such as "two new and one weight" new infrastructure, new urbanization and other major projects and effective investment in shortcomings. On the other hand, my country's infrastructure investment still has sufficient project reserves, sources of funds and per capita infrastructure capital stocks. In terms of necessity and possibilities, moderate advancement can stabilize the basic market of my country's economy, consolidate the foundation of the digital economy and China's intellectual manufacturing development, better promote the high -quality development of the economy, promote my country's economic and social transformation and development, expand and effective Investment and consumption.

Moderate advancement of infrastructure investment construction and investment, continuously promote the construction of the "two new and one weight" project and the "14th Five -Year Plan" plan for the orderly implementation of 102 major projects, focusing on further strengthening funds, land, energy and other types of resource elements. Actively expand effective investment, deepen related reforms, emphasize key areas such as supplementing shortcomings, strong weaknesses, and benefiting people's livelihood. Objectives, improve quality and efficiency, not only consolidate economic growth cockpit stones, but also ensure that the high -quality development of the economy and society is empowerment, so as to achieve the unity of stable investment, stable expectations, stable growth and speed lifting, capacity expansion, and structure.

In particular, considering that the traditional infrastructure investment plate has gradually weakened, the marginal contribution to economic growth has gradually weakened, the new infrastructure has a large role in pulling upstream and downstream and related industrial chains, but the contribution of infrastructure has been basically stable. Driving the effect and being able to be the basis for the construction of smart cities and the development of the digital economy. When deploying and developing infrastructure investment, it is necessary to be closely integrated, integrated, and commonly promoted by new urban construction, new infrastructure and traditional infrastructure.

As the main engine of the development of the digital economy, the main engine of traditional industries to digital intelligence transformation and upgrading, key elements of high -quality economic development, important support for economic new kinetic energy and new urbanization construction, major engineering projects and special planning key projects. The pace of new infrastructure construction will be further accelerated.

》》 The key to promoting consumption is to stabilize expectations, stabilize the subject, and employment

Wind Finance: Promoting consumption is an important point for hedging the downward pressure of the economy. In the next step, how should we promote consumption to expand and improve quality and help form a strong domestic market?

Pang Ye: Under the influence of the epidemic, residents' income growth, limited consumption scenarios, cautious consumption psychology, and weak consumption expectations directly led to the total retail sales of consumer goods in the second quarter decreased by 4.6%year -on -year. It reflects that the recovery of domestic demand is still slower and consumption is still greatly impacted. In my opinion, with the good situation of the epidemic prevention and control, the offline consumption scenario has gradually recovered, and the consumption policy is expected to continue to recover, especially the consumption scale expands, the consumption structure is upgraded, and the long -term trend of the consumer model innovation will not be. Change. The macro policy needs to focus on, support and solve the problem of promoting consumption repair in the second half of the year. Start, find a policy point for policy, firmly implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, enhance the driving force of domestic demand on economic growth, focus on adapting to the needs of the masses, enhance consumption willingness, promote the continuous recovery of consumption, conform to the trend of consumption upgrade in residents, vigorously develop services consumption, and consumption, and consumption, and consumption. Accelerate the cultivation of new consumption and continue to improve traditional consumption.

In particular, the key to promoting consumption is to stabilize expectations, stabilize the subject, and employment, and establish a effective system of long -term stable and sustainable growth in consumer demand, forming a more stable and balanced demand pattern of domestic demand and consumption as the main body. Quality development creates strong demand support.

Wind Finance: How to further reduce the threshold for private investment, eliminate hidden barriers, and mobilize the enthusiasm of private investment?

Pang Ye: In order to solve the cost pressure and risk of operating difficulties faced by some market entities, in addition to continuing large -scale tax cuts and fees, deepening the reform of "decentralization of management", and targeted promotion to the landing policy of the "decentralization service" reform. In addition, it should also help market entities to enhance the confidence and expectations of investment and operation development by reducing the cost of factors and institutional transaction costs, stimulate the vitality of the market entity, and enhance the development of development. In the fields of municipal infrastructure construction and smart community reconstruction, the commercial operation model of "government guidance and market -led" should be promoted, further optimizing the business environment, reducing institutional costs and entry thresholds, and encouraging various market entities to carry out various types Forms of construction, operation and commercialization. How to leverage more incremental funds to participate in construction and operation is the key to whether private funds participating in investment and construction can be carried out smoothly. Under the premise of scientific planning, reasonable layout, and efficiency, we should consider the level of economic development and government financial tolerance. While increasing the support of financial funds, emphasizing the effectiveness, moderateness, feasibility, and sustainability of investment. Reasonable design profit model, finely arrange financing methods, give full play to the power of the market, explore the model of equal participation in social funds and private capital, broaden all kinds of financing channels, form a diversified investment and financing system, encourage industry leading enterprises to drive SMEs SMEs In particular, scientific and technological innovation enterprises participate in investment construction in various ways, incorporate more market entities, and gather more financial elements, human capital and technical resources.

The most important thing is to make the market play a decisive role in the process of resource allocation, explore the policy mechanism and business model of coordinated development, further promote the diversification of investment entities and operating entities, innovate operating models and operating methods, focus on project investment construction camps, focus on project investment construction camps Integration, reduce project risks, and form experience that can be replicated and promoted as soon as possible.

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