Global Financial connection ｜ China Securities 1000 Index ETF listing and transaction, OPEC+increased production slightly, emerging markets have been flowed out of funds for five consecutive months

21st Century Business Herald reporter Shi Shi Shi Shi Shanghai report

CSI 1000 Index ETF Start Listing Trading

On August 4th, the ETF product of China C Sec for 1000 began to be listed and traded. Investors could directly buy and sell related products in the secondary market. How will this affect the domestic A -share market? Let's connect to Qianhai Open Source Chief Economist Yang Delong.

Enrich the A -share market ETF system

"Global Finance and Economics": The CSI 1000 Index ETF began to be listed and traded. What is the significance and impact on the domestic A -share market?

Yang Delong: The CSI 1000 Index ETF has been officially launched and traded, and the transaction is more active as a whole. The CSI 1,000 index is mainly covered by small and medium -sized stocks. For some investors focusing on small and medium -sized disks, it is a good investment target. (Investor) The opportunities for decentralized investment through ETF can achieve decentralized investment. The listing transaction of the CSI 1000ETF index enriches the ETF system in the A -share market. Now, the main A -share ETFs have been listed and traded, and the stock price of small and medium -sized individual stocks is relatively elastic, especially in the industry leading enterprises. It has better growth and is welcomed by many investors.

Investors should control the overall position

"Global Finance and Economics": How will the next A -share small -cap stocks perform? What layout suggestions do you have to investors?

Yang Delong: Small and medium -sized stocks have also performed well during this time. On the one hand, (they) have been promoted by the CSI 1000 Index ETF listing transaction, and on the other hand, under the situation where the overall performance of large -cap stocks is sluggish, small and medium -sized individual stocks have attracted the attention of investors, which meets the style characteristics of the current market. However, it is worth noting that the overall valuation of the small and medium -sized stocks is high, which is far greater than the valuation level of the ETF of the large market. Therefore, the stock price fluctuates relatively large. Investors should pay attention to the risks when participating. Some small and medium -sized enterprises that are in line with economic transformation, such as new energy, new materials, artificial intelligence, chips and other industries, some companies may grow up, and investors can focus on attention. In particular, some small and medium -sized stocks that can represent the direction of economic transformation, (investors) can be further excavated.

However, considering that the valuations of these companies are high and the stock price volatility is large, it is recommended that investors control the overall position. It is recommended that investment in small and medium -sized stocks or small and medium disk index funds shall not exceed 50% of the investment funds of 50% , Avoid risk. For conservative investors, this proportion must be controlled within 30%. Most funds still have to lay off white horse stocks with excellent performance, long -term investment value and low valuation.

OPEC+slightly increasing production of international oil prices has plummeted by nearly 4%

OPEC+ 3rd decided to increase only 100,000 barrels per day in September, setting the smallest increase in the history of the agency. International oil prices fell significantly. As of the close of August 3, WTI crude oil futures fell 3.98%in September, and Brent crude oil futures fell 3.74%in October. What is the cause of oil prices? Let's connect to Longzhong Information Crude Oil analyst Wu Yan.

The surplus capacity is seriously limited

"Global Financial connection": 100,000 barrels/day will be the minimum increase since the introduction of OPEC's introduction quota in 1982. What do you think of such an increase in production? How does it affect the trend of international oil prices?

Wu Yan: The meeting noticed the dynamics and rapid changes in the fundamentals of the oil market, and pointed out that the availability of the remaining production capacity was seriously limited, so it must be used very carefully to deal with serious supply interruptions.

The oil industry, especially the long -term investment in the Middle East, has reduced the remaining capacity of the value chain. In recent months, because only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have the ability to increase output, OPEC+only fulfills a small part of the increase in production. According to data, OPEC+has a daily output of nearly 3 million barrels less than the target of about 42 million barrels in May.

Nigeria, Angola, and other countries have faced long -term insufficient investment, oil well decline, and limited output. In addition, Saudi Arabia with the largest spare production capacity is also close to its capacity limit. Therefore, the daily increase of 100,000 barrels per day is due to OPEC+considering the current status of production capacity mining, and on the other hand, it also has a symbolic production significance.

It is expected that the demand side will still be under pressure

"Global Finance and Economics": Why did the international oil price fall nearly 4%on the 3rd? What factors will be affected by the market market?

Wu Yan: As the United States hopes that the organization will increase production to reduce oil prices, the decision -making decisions of slightly increasing production once boosted the oil price in the market. However, the 3rd felling of oil prices (the reasons) mainly stemmed from the peak of summer travel. The US commercial crude oil and gasoline inventory increased significantly, and the US dollar index was continuously strengthened. The next point of attention is the progress of the Meiyi negotiations on August 4. The negotiations resumed again, but the difficulty of lifting the ban is still very large.

After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates again in July, the market's concerns about economy and demand continued, and data performance in the United States and other economies was not ideal. At the same time, under the background of the summer consumption season, once crude oil and gasoline inventory increase, it will put pressure on market emotions. It is expected that the demand side will still be under pressure. From the perspective of monetary policy, the Fed has no new interest rate hike operation in August, but it will continue to raise interest rates in September. In the context of interest rate hikes, the US dollar is still strong and continues to suppress oil prices. In terms of geopolitics, although the Ukrainian foreign minister said that Russia had a ceasefire plan, the two sides performed without substantial turns. In addition, the United States and Iraq agreed to maintain the consultation, and the Iranian nuclear issue negotiations released positive signals again. At present, the price of oil in the market is obvious, and the short -term supply side does not have a significant increase in the favorable advantage and the negative confrontation that is worried about needs. The recent tug -of -the -time performance may still occur.

International Financial Association: Emerging markets have been flowed out of funds for five consecutive months

According to the data released by the International Financial Association, the fifth consecutive month of emerging markets encountered an outflow of investment portfolio funds, setting the longest round of funds from 2005. How to look at the trend of emerging market funds? What kind of risk of the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike will bring to emerging market economies in the future? Let's connect Chen Fengying, a researcher at the China Institute of Modern International Relations.

Emerging markets have flowed out last year

Chen Fengying: I think the future funds will flow out, and Europe also starts to raise interest rates, and there will be a process of raising interest rates in the Federal Reserve, which may add 50 basis points in September. Because inflation is currently impossible to completely curb, and the problems of the current Russian -Ukraine conflict and geopolitics are superimposed, which is not exactly the unbalanced supply and demand of the new crown epidemic (caused) in the original sense. Therefore, the Fed may continue to raise interest rates and control high inflation at the expense.

Under such circumstances, we see that the spread is existing, so the space flowing out of emerging market funds still exists, which has become the risk of the tail in this adjustment. The biggest threat of this tail risk is not capital outflow, but the currency adjustment of (emerging market) and the weak economic growth that has begun last year. We summarize these issues into tail risks.

The risk of overflow will continue

The most affected are Russia, Turkey, and Latin American countries. Asia has relatively small influence. So we see that the middle income trap will appear again, and the Latin American countries have fallen into it, and there is a development crisis in underdeveloped areas. I think this is a food crisis, energy crisis and development crisis, which may not be resolved for the time being.

Therefore, not only the capital outflows, the capital outflow has begun last year. When is this process ending, the macro policies of (developed) countries may start to stabilize and inflation have been controlled. Under the condition of economic recession or stagflation, its risk transfer ability will weaken. Now (developed countries) are now observing this process.

(The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious. The opinions of the guests on this show only represent their own opinions.)

Planning: Yu Xiaona

Produced: Shi Shi

Editor -in -chief: Du Hongyu and Jia Zhao Yue Li Yinong

Production: Yuan Sijie

Trainer: Hao Jiaqi Zhang Yuxiao

Shooting: Chen Chen

New media overall planning: Ding Qingyun Zeng Tingfang Lai Xixun

Overseas operation producer: Huang Yanshu

Overseas Operation Editor: Zhang Ran Tang Shuangyan Wu Wanjie

Overseas Business Cooperation: Huang Zihao

Produced: Southern Finance All Media Group

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