Global Energy Observation ｜ The "symbolic increase in production" of the main oil -producing countries is beneficial. Where does the long and short factors intertwine the oil market?

The 21st Century Business Herald reporter Wu Bin reported that after visiting the Middle East in July, President Bynden, the idle production capacity of OPEC+, which had been stretched out, conducted a "symbolic increase".

On August 3, local time, the 31st OPEC and Non -OPEC Oil Oils Minister -in -Chief Meeting was held. OPEC+agreed to increase the daily output of 100,000 barrels in September, setting the smallest increase in history. As this result was lower than the previous market, it is generally expected The market emotions have been boosted at 300,000/day to 400,000 barrels/day, and international oil prices have risen.

It should be noted that the increase in production of 100,000 barrels per day is only equivalent to 86 seconds of oil demand in the world, and it is only one -thousandth of global demand. After the trip to the Middle East in July, the United States approved the selling missile defense system to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The market once speculated that this would bring more oil to the world, but the end result was not ideal.

Zhang Zhuran, the chief researcher at Kid Lianyun, analyzed the 21st Century Business Herald that OPEC knew that the global economic situation and the real demand of crude oil are now justified, so symbolic has increased a little supply. The overall economic situation of the world has led to insufficient expectations, so OPEC is very cautious about increasing production. From the perspective of practical interests, OPEC does not want to significantly increase production and cause high oil prices to end prematurely.

The effect of "symbolic production" is very small

It should be noted that OPEC has almost no effort to increase production. The idle production capacity of OPEC member states is generally very low. Most of the oil -producing countries are producing with maximum production capacity. Due to the lack of investment in new capacity for many years, most member states have been weak in increasing production.

According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the idle capacity of the Middle East has dropped to the "extremely micro" level, about 2 million barrels per day, accounting for only 2%of global demand.

From another perspective, it is difficult to even complete the existing production goals. In June this year, OPEC +'s actual output was about 3 million barrels per day lower than its target level. Moreover, even large oil -producing Saudi Arabia lags behind production goals. According to OPEC's official data, Saudi Arabia increased its daily output by 159,000 to 10.59 million barrels in June, which was about 700,000 barrels lower than its June.

Tobin Gorey, a commodity analyst of the Australian Bank of Federal Bank, said that the recent production capacity of Saudi Arabia and the UAE has been in its limits. For example, the UAE Minister of Energy Suhail Al Mazrouei clearly stated that the UAE is close to the output of the country's 3.168 million barrels per day in the country in the country.

Therefore, it is not difficult to understand the "symbolic" increase of OPEC+. According to OPEC's official data, the increase of 100,000 barrels per day in September was the minimum increase since OPEC introduced the quota system in 1982. This increase in yield is also far lower than the previous months, and the increase in yield increase in OPEC+July and August is 648,000 barrels per day.

Matt Weller, head of the global research director of Jiasheng Group, analyzed the 21st Century Business Herald that when the quota was implemented to the real output, the number may be only one -third of the number. This is because the increase of 100,000 barrels of production will be distributed on average to member states. Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have excess capacity. Therefore, the increase in quotas will only have a limited impact on the supply and demand of the market.

Eurasia Group Raad Alkadiri, Managing Director of Energy, Climate and Sustainable Development, said that the increase of 100,000 barrels per day is too little, which is meaningless. From a practical point of view, this trivial volatility is just a "political gesture".

Similar to this, Bob McNally, president of Rabitan Energy Group Consulting Company, also believes that the increase in production is very insignificant and almost difficult to detect. The market interpreted it as Saudi Arabia almost rejected the United States, and it was purely a symbolic posture.

Even if OPEC cooperates with the requirements of Western countries, the target output of various member states is only the gap between the expansion of the planned output and the actual output. Over the past two years, OPEC+oil -producing countries have provided oil to the global market even more than 500 million barrels less than its promise.

From the perspective of geopolitical politics, OPEC needs to respond to the increase in production in the United States on the one hand, and also hopes to maintain a close relationship with Russia. For example, OPEC's new secretary -general Hatham Geus said that Russia's position in OPEC+mechanism is "important". The primary task after he serves as Secretary -General OPEC is to strengthen OPEC and non -OPEC oil -producing countries and consumer countries. Constructive dialogue.

In addition, the repeated raging of the new crown epidemic and the slowdown of the global economic slowdown may suppress the demand for crude oil, which is also a major reason for OPEC+on the issue of increasing production. The July Report of OPEC showed that the global oil demand growth rate in 2023 is expected to slow from 3.4 million barrels/day in 2022 to 2.7 million barrels/day.

At the official level, OPEC explained that the conference noticed the current fundamentals of the crude oil market, which is currently fluctuating, and it is necessary to continue to evaluate market conditions. It is necessary to use the current very limited idle production capacity to deal with serious crude oil supply interruptions.

Where does the long and short factor intertwine the oil market?

Under the influence of multiple factors, the recent fluctuations in the oil market have intensified, and almost all the gains since the Russian -Ukraine conflict have been abused.

Although OPEC's weak production provides a good supply side, international oil prices have risen on the 3rd. However, the haze at the time of demand made the increase in oil prices. Weller told reporters that after a few hours of OPEC+meeting, the United States announced the weekly crude oil inventory data. Last week, US crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased by 4.467 million barrels. Multi -short factor intertwined makes oil prices "up and down", and it is expected that the oil market will continue to fluctuate at a high level.

According to the latest data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on August 3, the US crude oil inventory increased by 4.467 million barrels from July 29, while the market was originally expected to decrease by 629,000 barrels. In addition, gasoline inventory increased by 163,000 barrels, which was higher than the market expectations of -16.14 million barrels.

Under the recent demand concerns, American crude oil futures have even approached the $ 90 mark. The price of light crude oil futures delivered in September of the New York Commodity Exchange fell 3.98%on the 3rd to close at $ 90.66 per barrel; the price of London's Brent crude oil futures in October fell 3.74%, and closed at $ 96.78 per barrel.

In Zhang Zhuran's view, as the global economic recession is concerned about heating up, it is expected that crude oil prices will fall, and high inflation in Europe and the United States will also be relieved.

From the perspective of anti -inflation, the United States undoubtedly hopes that oil prices will fall further. AMOS Hochstein, a Biden government energy consultant, said that although gasoline prices have fallen recently, the decline is not enough. At present, the demand for American gasoline consumers is still high, and energy companies are still reluctant to expand supply, and the tension in the energy market is still intensifying.

How will the future supply and demand relationship develop? Hohnstein's supply and demand in the energy market will still be tense. From the perspective of external supply, Russia is expected to continue to reduce the energy supply in the market, and OPEC+production capacity is limited, and high oil prices are still difficult to cool down in the short term. From the perspective of internal factors in the United States, summer is the peak season for gasoline demand, and high US gasoline prices have not reduced domestic consumer demand. On the other hand, although US energy companies have received a lot of profits from the rise in oil prices, they have not actively increased their output.

For OPEC+this "symbolic production increase", Hohstan admits that OPEC +'s latest decision will not have a significant impact on the price of American gasoline. However, he refused to disclose whether Biden was disappointed in increasing the production range.

One of the key risks of the oil market in the future is still geopolitics, and the upper limit of oil prices in the United States may still impact the market. Director of the Seventh Kingdom Group (G7) said on August 2 that it is considering the option to restrict Russian oil income, including preventing the transportation of Russia's oil unless the price limit mechanism is observed. A statement issued by the British government shows that the G7 Foreign Minister is considering the full prohibition of services provided by the transportation of Russian sea transportation crude oil and petroleum products worldwide, unless the purchase price of oil is equal to or lower than the price set by international partners.

And this may also make oil prices jump again. Gal Luft, co -director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, warned that the upper limit of the proposed price of Russia's oil setting was a "ridiculous idea" and may have a "absurd idea" to the United States and other G7 countries. The opposite effect. One possible situation is that Russia will restrict production and shortage of crude oil on the market. Europeans and Americans discuss the price of Russian oil at $ 40/barrel, while they will get $ 140/barrel oil price.

For the future, the risk of insufficient investment is also worthy of attention. OPEC reminded the risk of insufficient investment in the policy statement after the meeting. OPEC warned that the lack of long -term investment in the oil industry caused a reduction in idle production capacity, especially the insufficient investment in the upstream department, which may make it difficult for the oil industry to respond to continuous growth after 2023 growth. Global oil demand.

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