Don't despise the power of rebound!CICC said that the economic recovery depends on the next 6-12 months

Zhongxin Jingwei, June 16 (Ma Jing) The Federal Reserve has landed on the largest interest rate hike since 1994. As of the closing on the 16th, the three major indexes of China's A -share were divided, the Shanghai Index fell 0.61%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index rose 0.11%, and the GEM index rose 0.40%. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen cities has exceeded trillion yuan for the fifth consecutive trading day.

At the mid -2022 mid -2022 macroeconomic and market output media sharing conference, Liu Gang, a strategic analyst of CICC, said that the turmoil of overseas markets is not the leading force of A -share affairs. The characteristics of "enter".

Talking about the recent performance of A -share, Liu Gang believes that although external pressures such as the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes still exist, if China's policy support and economic cycle performance are strong, it can completely offset some external pressure.

Liu Gang mentioned that in 2022, after the global epidemic, the "Yu Bo Period". At the beginning of the year, the overseas "commodity rising, stock bonds fall, growth of growth" is a typical "stagnation period" inflation. Essence "After the swelling, there is a big stagnation." After the epidemic, two variables will affect the performance of large global asset prices in the second half of the year to next year: either the Chinese and foreign economic cycles continue to dislocate. For example Going down. The key to this lies in the effects of China's steady growth and overseas tightening on stable growth.

After the epidemic disturbances repeatedly, when will the economic recovery come? In this regard, Zhang Wenlang, chief macro analyst at the Research Department of CICC, believes that the impact of the epidemic on the economy in 2022 is far from 2020, but due to the rise in the uncertainty of the epidemic, it has enlarged the short -term impact on the economy. Once the uncertainty decreases, the economic rebound power will be relatively strong, "don't underestimate the recovery slope." In his opinion, due to the uncertainty of the epidemic, the cost of adjustment, and the company tended to wait and see, and the decline pressure in the short term increased. The family's wait -and -see mood is also relatively strong, and the savings rate is higher.

Zhang Wenlang believes that do not despise the power of rebound. If the epidemic improves, there will be considerable consumption potential in the future. After the vaccination and our behavior adapt to the new environment model, we will bring a positive effect on the economic recovery. However, he emphasized that the outlook of economic recovery depends on the next 6-12 months, not just the second half of this year.

Based on the above judgments, Liu Gang believes that it is expected to gradually see the effect after improving the stable growth policy in the second half of the year. From the perspective of valuation, the overall A -share market is currently at a low historical range, which means that if conditions permit first, the valuation and emotional repair will last for a period of time. From the perspective of liquidity, domestic macro -liquidity may still tend to be loose, and overseas capital allocation may be disturbed by the peripheral market in the short term, but the mid -term is still a general trend.

Talking about how to do the asset allocation in this context, Liu Gang said that based on the tone of A shares or "steady" and then "entering", the steady growth sector still has the configuration value in the short term, and the mid -term is increasing. He also emphasized that in addition to the short -term industry configuration, we must see a big trend. "In the past years, the logic behind the booming of the new economy is industrial upgrading and consumption upgrade, which will not change or be replaced." (For more report clues, please contact the author Ma Jing: [email protected]) (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

(The views in the article are for reference only, do not constitute investment suggestions, have risks in investment, and need to be cautious to enter the market.)

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Editor in charge: Li Zhongyuan

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