Clear signal!Where will the "money" flow in the second half of the year?

The goal of the direction of monetary policy in China in the second half of the year is officially established!

"Macro policies should actively act as an expansion of demand." The Central Political Bureau meeting recently proposed that monetary policy must maintain reasonable liquidity, increase credit support for enterprises, and make good use of policy banks to add new credit and infrastructure construction construction. Investment fund.

Subsequently, the People's Bank of China held a work conference in the second half of the year to make deployment of key work in the second half of the year.

The signal has been clear. Driven by the monetary policy, where will the "money" flow in the second half of the year?

Maintain policy continuity

Increase the precise direction

The implementation of the existing policies is the mainstay of the macroeconomic stable operation in the second half of the year.

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, pointed out that from the statement of the Politburo Conference, it is expected that monetary policy will continue to maintain continuity in the second half of the year. While increasing credit support, focusing on new credit and infrastructure investment through policy bank Fund increases wide credit.

The chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly believes that the policy direction has been further clarified.

The central government has three aspects of monetary policy: one is to maintain the inter -bank liquidity reasonable and abundant, and the other is to increase the credit of the enterprise, and the third is to make good use of the financial support for infrastructure construction. From the perspective of the content of the expression, unlike the "make good use of various monetary policy tools" mentioned in the Politburo meeting in April 2022, it clearly focuses on the three aspects of liquidity environment, increased corporate credit investment, and quasi -financial support infrastructure investment. Essence

Obviously also mentioned that the Politburo meeting proposed that "consolidating the trend of recovering the economy to improve, and focusing on stabilizing employment and stable prices." It can be seen that the goal of macro policies is to stabilize employment and prices, and there is no need to overdraw the total policy space in advance.

"It is expected that the Rising trend of CPI in the second half of the year will increase in the weight of monetary policy decision -making. The focus is on increasing corporate credit support and making good use of financial support for infrastructure investment.

Do not exceed currency, do not advance the future

At present, the Chinese economy is in the key window of stabilizing recovery, which is very important in the third quarter.

Lian Ping, chief economist and dean of Zhixin Investment, said that macro policies need to focus on the economic market and give priority to ensuring the realization of employment and stability targets; both accurate, powerful, and reasonable , Do not exceed currency, do not pre -expend the future.

He further stated that the fiscal expenditure of special debt funds in July was further accelerated, and the amount of inverse repurchase repurchase funds was relatively small, 300 billion yuan of financial instruments, 800 billion yuan policy bank credit quota, etc. Market liquidity may still maintain a relatively abundant situation.

"The possibility of greatly contraction of liquidity during the year is less likely." Lian Ping believes that the current global inflation is still high, and the probability of China's policy interest rate is still low in August. The real estate market recovery and corporate bailout require continuous support in the financial field. The use of monetary policy tools will pay more attention to the role of driving demand, especially the financing support for key projects in the third quarter.

Fund flow to key areas

Stabilize the economic market

Macro policies should make articles on expanding demand. Where should the effort?

Guo Lei, the chief economist of Guangfa Securities, said that to pull the total demand, it is nothing more than investment, export, and consumption of troiders. Among them, the relatively more policy elasticity is the main asset investment, and the fixed asset investment is the highest in policies. It is infrastructure. The Politburo Conference mentioned that the investment funds of new credit and infrastructure construction were made to make good use of policy banks.

Earlier, China's official increased policy banks of 800 billion yuan in credit lines, promoted the establishment of 300 billion yuan in policy development financial instruments, and supported medium- and long -term infrastructure loans.

"It is necessary to play the role of counter -cyclical regulation in the field of traditional infrastructure, which may also become one of the important starting points for medium- and long -term loans." Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, said that in the second half of the year, the new loan amount of 800 billion yuan in policy banks or A large boost on the formation of loans in the infrastructure field.

Zhong Zhengsheng's team estimated that the scale of new domestic loans from 2019 to 2021 was 1.35 trillion yuan, 2.13 trillion yuan, and 1.65 trillion yuan, respectively. Considering the new loan quota of 800 billion yuan, the new loans of policy banks in 2022 may reach 2.4 trillion yuan to 2.6 trillion yuan.

Zhong Zhengsheng said that in policy banks, the National Bank of China focused on the field of infrastructure. According to data in 2021, the loan balance of the National Bank of China invested in infrastructure -related industries accounted for as high as 54%. In 2021, the volume of infrastructure investment is about 18.87 trillion yuan, assuming that of the 800 billion yuan loan quota of the newly increased lending of policy banks, about 500 billion yuan is invested in the infrastructure field. Important engines of "steady growth" and "stable credit".

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