The "window of opportunity" in US stocks appeared early, what should I do now?

Editor's note: Dr. Dai Yifeng is a macro hedge fund manager who worked in the United States. He has rich theoretical and market experience. He once served as a fund manager at domestic mainstream funds. Now, Dr. Dai Yifeng wrote a market weekly report every week. After his permission, "Understanding the Economy" will publish his views on the global market every week, asking him to bring the closest front -line market thinking from Wall Street.

Author | Dai Guifeng

Overseas macro hedge fund manager, understanding APP expert (TA has settled in the app mini program)

Sum up

This week's discussion is very short, because this is the theme I have discussed for several weeks. Now just judge ... it is or not.

I have talked about the "peak pricing" of the Fed's tightening policy for several weeks and the "window of opportunities" related to risk assets. I think the opening of the time window will be the front and back of the Federal Reserve's implementation of 75 basis points around July 27. I think it may be one week earlier than July 27, or it may happen after July 27.

My reason is that the future interest rate hike path (75 BPS, 50 BPS, 25 BPS, and 25 BPS) is clear at a glance, and there will be no Federal Reserve Conference in August. Therefore, this provides a chance to rebound for risk assets. Prior to this, the market has re -priced densely on the Fed's tightening policy since April, causing huge fluctuations.

Looking back, I think that the market is as high as ever, around July 10 (if not earlier), it has reflected this theme.

People are looking at the market rebound according to the various details of the information passed by the Federal Reserve at the July meeting, thinking that the Fed's pigeon information has pushed up the risk market.

It may be true. But I think these are just details. I think the rebound of last week is only part of the "tightening peak pricing" and the theme of related "opportunities" themes.

There are still many uncertainty in inflation and economy. Europe still conducts a continuous war. This is why I call it an opportunity. The window is coming, and it will eventually leave. Therefore, we need to continuously evaluate every step in the future, and then re -evaluate.

But for now, you may still need to keep more positions.

At least you don't want to shorten the market.

The peak pricing of the Fed's tightening policy

When I talked about the peak pricing of the Fed's tightening policy, I refer to the recent peaks of the next few months. I refer to the peak of the entire interest rate hike cycle. Until now, there are too many uncertainty to judge that our family has reached the peak of the entire interest rate hike cycle -if inflation may look out of control for any reason, the Fed may increase interest rates more aggressively.

The market is roughly consistent with the Fed's own forecast. The market basically states that starting in July, the Fed will raise interest rates 75 basis points, 50 basis points, 25 basis points and 25 basis points by the end of 2022.

The Federal Reserve just raised 75 basis points in July, which also confirmed market evaluation.

Some market participants believe that Powell mentioned growth and hinted that interest rate hikes will slow down, which is the reason behind the market rebound. But I think the rebound of last week is only part of the theme of the "tightening pricing peak" theme.

Market rebound

The market responded to the highest pricing of the Fed's tightening policy and rebounded. Interest rates fell and the stock market rebounded.

As the yield decreases, Standard & Poore rises.

Although GSG has indeed risen with Standard & Poorne, commodities are lagging behind in the current rebound.

This is actually reasonable, because the market is currently a re -pricing of the Fed's policy path, not a potential decline. And the stock had been beaten too miserable before.

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