How big will you give?OPEC+ushered in the new era, the results of the Bayeng Middle East will be announced

03.08.2022

Number of this text: 2275, the reading time is about 4 minutes older

Introduction: Under the pressure of global economic slowdown, will the oil -producing Congress grit their teeth and increase their production?

Author | First Financial Fan Zhijing

Since June, international oil price fluctuations have intensified. Investors are worried that the global central bank represented by the Federal Reserve to curb inflation to curb inflation may lead to a decline in the economy. With the OPEC+of the oil -producing country OPEC+ending the two -year production reduction agreement, facing the lobbying and pressure of US President Biden, the production increase plan seems to be out.

Tamas Varga, a high -level market analyst of crude oil broker PVM Oil Associates, said in an interview with First Financial Reporter that the trend of crude oil reflects the global recession and the lack of oil production capacity. He predicts that considering the pressure facing the global economy, OPEC+will reiterate the importance of unity and maintaining the market, and oil -producing countries may eventually agree to slightly increase their output as a response to Biden.

Supply side: OPEC+materials emphasize unity

This OPEC+ministerial meeting has special significance, which will be the first OPEC+United Technical Committee (JTC) chairman of the OPEC+United Technical Committee (JTC), and on behalf of Al-Ghais, the OPEC+meeting. On Monday (1st), he officially took office at OPEC headquarters in Vienna, and replaced Balkin as the new OPEC Secretary -General with a term of three years.

The media had previously cited sources as saying that the parties of the meeting would likely make a choice between maintaining the unchanged production capacity and moderate increasing production. As the meeting approached, the balance was gradually increasing to increase production. It is reported that Saudi Arabia will promote the possibility of OPEC+discussing oil production, because the King of Saudi Arabia has given relevant commitments when the US President Biden was met last month.

As OPEC's actual leaders, Saudi Arabia has undoubtedly had a significant impact on the results of the negotiations. After meeting with Biden last month, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Ben Salman told the outside world that Saudi Arabia will continue to increase investment in fossil energy and clean energy in the next two decades to meet the global growth of energy. need. He said at the time that Saudi Arabia "had the ability" to increase domestic crude oil production capacity to 13 million barrels per day, but did not promise when to reach this level. Saudi Arabia also exchanged with Russian President Putin to discuss the current situation of the global oil market and emphasize the importance of strengthening coordination under the "OPEC+" mechanism. Ensure the necessary balance and stability of the global energy market.

Walga told reporters that the meeting may set a tone for the market trend in the second half of the year, the key is how to deal with idle capacity. The latest survey shows that OPEC+ July production energy distance quota requirements still differences in nearly 1.3 million barrels per day. As one of the few emergency capacity of the group, the spare space of Saudi Arabia and the UAE is 200-22 million barrels per day. Combining with the current global economic prospects and energy demand expectations, Saudi Arabia will promise part of the requirements of Biden, but it will not make too many concessions, because this may cause market panic and destroy the order that is difficult to establish, especially considering Libya and Venezuela In the context of Iran and non -OPEC oil production growth.

OPEC's new secretary -general Algez has also recently emphasized the importance of unity, saying that Russia's joining OPEC+is critical to the success of the agreement. He said that OPEC has no competitive relationship with Russia.

Algez said that OPEC does not control oil prices, and the current situation of the oil market is "very unstable and turbulent." "It should be emphasized that before the upgrading of Russia and Ukraine, oil prices have gradually begun to accumulate. This is because the market generally believes that the remaining production capacity is short, and the remaining production capacity is limited to a few limited countries." He added that "the most important thing is the most important thing The factors will continue to lack investment in the fields of drilling, exploration and production. This will promote the rise in prices, but we cannot determine what level of the price will reach. "

Walga predicts that this meeting will continue to reiterate the importance of unity within this meeting, which is also the best way to maintain stable prices and protect the interests of various oil -producing countries. Saudi Arabia adheres to the market in a balanced state and ensures that Russia is still part of OPEC+framework. He believes that oil -producing countries may eventually agree to symbolic production, which will be significantly lower than the level of previous production reduction agreements.

Demand side: Turn on the decline and disturbance

Compared with the supply surface, the main thing that causes the recent oil price turmoil is the destruction of the weakness of the demand side to the expected expected of supply and demand balance. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered the world economic growth expectations of 2022 and 2023 last week to 3.2%and 2.9%, respectively. This is the agency re -reduced the world economic growth expectations in April. The IMF believes that under the influence of a series of adverse factors that threaten the global economic performance, the prospect of global economic growth is dim, and it will be impacted by many downward risks in the future.

The three major organizations of EIA/OPEC/IEA also lowered the global oil demand expectations in the second half of the year in the latest outlook report. On average, the demand for OPEC oil is 28.7 million barrels per day, a decrease of 440,000 barrels per day. Combined with the recently announced production capacity survey data, the trend of global fuel inventory has been reversed since this year.

Valga believes that from the perspective of oil prices, the market's concerns about recession are obvious. The impact of the central bank's interest rate hike on the economy is gradually emerging, which also reflects the trend of many other commodities. However, in his opinion, the consumer demand is still strong, because the price difference between the near -term futures contract is still large. Generally speaking, the reversal of the lift structure is a precursor to the sharp decline in consumption. Short -term demand strong: Brent crude oil contract 6 months of water rising more than $ 6 (data source: intercontinental exchange ICE)

Goldman Sachs, the flag bearer of the commodity bull market, continues to be actively optimistic about the trend of oil prices in the future. Jeffrey Currie, director of the commodity director of the bank, believes that there is a "unprecedented" price difference between the price of oil and oil futures in the global oil price and the price of oil futures, and oil prices are facing strong upward risks. He pointed out that the empty people believe that the energy and food crisis has been resolved, and the price will not believe that the price will rise again, and decline is not the time to make multiple products. But the fact is that the world is still in the environment where demand is higher than supply.

Cori said that the risk return of oil is "significant" now, and the market still has 1 million barrels of deficits a day. At the same time, due to lack of investment in many years, the supply is still severely restricted. Goldman Sachs expects that the target price of Brent crude at the end of this year is $ 130, and the target price of WTI crude oil is $ 125. "Unlike the financial market, the commodity market plays a role in regulating demand and creating supply in the real world, which means that it is more unstable. Therefore, investors may be difficult to obtain a good stable upward trend and ultra -periodic environment." He Written.

Valga told reporters that the premium of futures contracts show strong demand. It can be seen that Brent crude oil difference (CFD) is active. Saudi Arabia's official price (OSP) selling Arab light crude oil in Arabia in August (OSP) is 9.3 US dollars/barrels higher than the Alman-Dubai Kizer Crude Oil, which is from history. The new high step. Bonny Light, the lift of Bonny Light, has continued to expand. In addition, it is necessary to be alert to the impact of the potential European energy crisis. He believes that due to Western sanctions, Russia's oil and gas exports will be further squeezed, and all parties in the competition for energy reserves or exacerbate supply tensions and price pressure.

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