Zhang Cuixia: Disadvantage of the index is difficult to stop becoming a long track rising trend

Zhongxin Jingwei August 3rd Question: Disadvantage of Index Disadvantages Difficult to Block the Rising Trend of Long Circuit

Author Zhang Cuixia Jufeng Investment Chief Investment Consultant

On August 3, the stock index of Shenzhen -Shanghai City's stock index was released continuously. It was a geopolitical event, the semi -annual report disclosure to enter the deep water area, the adjustment of the waves to accelerate the bottom, the local Mao stocks were too crowded, and the local premium premium premium The acceleration risks of excessive varieties, the scale of institutional funds declined from a large proportion, and the impact and resonance of the majority of the major industry segment index appeared. The new low, fulfilling the previous "motivation and potential energy of the shadow line in August".

From the perspective of market performance in recent periods, the too extreme "general falls+rapid falls+plunge" does not meet the actual operation of China's economic fundamentals, nor does it meet the normal market law. Looking at the Shanghai Index, the ups and downs adjustment of the yin line is adjusted, and during the test of the 3150 points, the acceleration of the acceleration of the waves for complex A-B-C adjust the trend. Large and empty places account for excellence. There are also inertia bottoming and grinding momentum and potential energy of the background market; the GEM index has three waves adjustment structure at the end, and the backbone movement fails to get rid of the trend line suppression. It is also due to the switching of institutional funds. Continuously set up a new low to enter the 2500-2580 area, which should be an opportunity for a positive game to rebound; The star line is still in line with the operation of a strong structure. It is expected that the repeated activity of scientific and technological innovation growth track stocks will facilitate the formation of good popularity and risk appetite for the secondary market, and continue to interpret the structural market opportunities that are deeply advanced.

Combined with a long and short energy ratio, it rose more than 9%of 73 stocks, rose more than 5%of 198 stocks, increased by more than 3%of the stocks of 403, and fell more than 9%of individual stocks and 37 stocks. The data of 547 stocks of 3%of the stocks is expected to be fiercely long and short in August. It may take time to grind and bottom out, but it will not reverse the repeated activity and risk appetite of the core main line.

On the news, the People's Bank of China held a work conference in the second half of 2022, from two dimensions for key work deployment: First, in accordance with the requirements of "the epidemic should be defended, the economy must stabilize, and the development must be safe" The total tone, active response, strive forward, resolutely support the stability of the economic market, effectively prevent and control financial risks, continue to deepen financial reform, effectively improve financial services, and conscientiously carry out central inspections and rectification; For the credit support of the enterprise, maintain the overall stability of the financial market, consolidate the economic recovery trend, grasp the implementation of policies and measures, strive to stabilize employment, stabilize prices, play a key role in effective investment, and maintain economic operation in a reasonable range. The National Development and Reform Commission has promoted the effects of stable growth of various policies to accelerate the release, give full play to the key role of investment, better play the role of promoting an important project coordination mechanism for effective investment, effectively increase its efforts to do a good job of project preliminary work, accelerate policy development financial instrument funds The combination of combinations such as putting in and forming physical workload as soon as possible. It is expected that the panic "generally falls+rapid falls+plunge" caused by a variety of disturbance factors. The high probability event will turn on the weekend or early next week.

The author believes that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology studies and formulate the "Administrative Measures for the Recycling of New Energy Vehicle Power Storage Battery" and the industry's urgent need of standards, improve the power battery recycling system, support a number of key technologies such as flexible disassembly and efficient regeneration utilization ; The Sichuan Provincial Development and Reform Commission and other 6 departments issued the "National Integrated Computing Power Network Chengdu -Chongqing National Hub (Sichuan) Implementation Plan" proposed that by 2025, the starting area of ​​the Tianfu Data Center cluster will be fully completed, and the layout will basically form a reasonable layout, green green, The integrated development pattern of data centers that are compatible with the growth of the scale of the intensive, safe and reliable, computing power scale and digital economy growth. In view of this, new energy vehicles, MCU chips, semiconductors, optical carvings, new materials, meta -codes, consumer electronics, east county, 5G new infrastructure, photovoltaic, data centers and other sectors that have benefited the core There will be a judgment view of better up and rotating market opportunities.

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