Real estate storms and rain transformation: Seeking mode restructuring under virtuous circulation

21st Century Business Herald Reporter Kong Haili Beijing report

The real estate industry in the deep adjustment has undergone structural changes in operating logic. The old pattern and old model of "high leverage, high turnover, and high growth" are unsustainable. However, the residential industry has not ended. Under the guidance of the virtuous cycle and healthy development, seeking a new development model, becoming a must -have road for enterprises to "survive" and eventually cross the cycle.

On July 29, the Boao · 21st Century Real Estate Forum, which was sponsored by the 21st Century Economic Herald of Southern Finance and Economics Group, successfully closed. At this ideological feast with the theme of "wind and rain transformation: a model under the model of benign cycle", a number of senior experts and real estate industry chain practitioners jointly present the industry in -depth analysis, front -line actual combat experience, and new logic pairs. Thinking of the way of survival.

"2022 is an important year to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern and comprehensively deepen reform and opening up. The long -term fundamentals of my country's economy have not changed. In the new stage of development, the real estate industry is given a new historical mission." Southern Finance All Media Deng Honghui, deputy editor -in -chief of the Group and editor -in -chief of the 21st Century Newspaper Department, said in his speech that the real estate people's livelihood and guarantee attributes are more prominent, and the market environment has subverted the original development inertia. For practitioners, only active progress and active change. In order to complete a new round of evolution.

Deng Honghui pointed out that although the old dividends have gradually become thinner, there is still a solid foundation for living demand. China's real estate and its related industrial chains still have huge development space; the era of product and service will really come. It also marks the professionalism and refinement of the industry; the new development model will be established and consolidated, and all types of market entities can cross the cycle in the transformation and stabilize.

This is also the consensus of the guests. The development business towards the return of value in the wind and rain, and the operating business has become a certainty of uncertainty. After finding the balance of scale, liabilities and profits, the value of operation, service and digitalization has become more prominent.

Market judgment: farewell to high growth

Signs, including high leverage ends, show that the real estate industry has bid farewell to the era of high growth, and the main indicators of the entire industry have entered a smooth passage.

Feng Jun, president of the China Real Estate Association, pointed out that the demand and price of real estate have continued to rise in the "mythology", making the industry continue to implement the soil of high leverage. Feng Jun has three judgments on the current market. One is basically the market to bottom out; the other is that the possibility of liquidity risk expansion is basically not basically, but the conduction and extension effects are gradually arising.

Li Wenjie, senior vice president of Shell Finding Housing and Dean of the Shell Research Institute, also believes that although there are still some uncertain factors, as the policy has boosted the market confidence, the lowest real estate market has passed this year. Hot cities took the lead in recovery.

In the process of recovery, the market is not presented as a stable line, and fluctuations still exist.

According to the data provided by Wu Dingjin, Dean of the Poly Development Holding Strategic Research Institute, entering July this year, the market continues to continue its downward characteristics. ; The transactions of major cities and typical housing companies have fallen into a downturn again, a year-on-year decline to about 30%-40%.

Looking at the middle and long -term, the guests believe that the real estate industry still has sufficient support, which is manifested as: my country's macro fundamentals continue to be better and long -term. The reasonable housing demand brought about by promotion and population migration will continue to be released.

In Li Wenjie's view, the government's positioning to the real estate development industry is "cockpit stone" and "stabilizer". "The real estate market has not ended, but the growth rate is shifted." He said.

"The trend of the industry in the future will be to de -financial melting, manufacturing, ultimate professionalization, functional folkness and competitive patterns." Wu Dingjin further pointed out that as land dividends are no longer and profit decline, real estate companies must implement The concept of manufacturing thinking and lean management. In addition, credit, brand, professional ability and management capabilities will become a key factor in differentiation of housing enterprises.

Feng Jun also emphasized that the logical structure of the real estate itself has changed significantly. "Enterprises must seek new development models on the basis of ensuring safety."

Selection of the pattern: explore new development

Since the end of last year, the regulatory authorities have proposed that the real estate industry must explore new development models. For enterprise subjects, how to change thinking in time and establish a new development model under the new market environment and development logic are imminent.

The real estate industry has grown from the high speed in the past two decades to the normal growth of the future steady growth, which has led many private enterprises to slow down and return to reason. Lin Zhong, chairman of the board of directors of Xuhui Holdings, said that he has always followed three principles when he operates the company: one is to respect common sense; the other is the law of fear; the third is that the house must return to the nature of living.

In the future thinking, Lin Zhong mentioned a strategic path of a combination of severity, namely low liabilities, low -risk, light assets, and can cross the cycle and long -term development model. Based on the future real estate more professional segmentation, Lin Zhong believes that the development model of priority and feasibility has a lot of room for property, leasing market, community services and urban services.

Huang Juncan, President of Goldland Group, said that long -term adherence to the strategy of balanced development, pursuing the balance of scale and profit, is not only the theory of standardization, and pursuing the balance of long -term business goals and short -term business goals is the key to enterprises that can calmly cope with market fluctuations. He mentioned that in the future, real estate companies should also consider how to provide better products and better services for buyers. Return to product value is an important direction. Song Yanqing, president of Rand Consulting Institution, also mentioned that in the future, real estate companies will turn from scale -oriented and speed -oriented development models to product force and service -oriented. "In the final analysis, the company is a market entity that provides products and services. To the extreme of products and services, customers will definitely pay." He said.

"Doing in March and April has its own answers in August and September." Li Jun, executive director, vice president, and chief operating officer of Greentown, said that companies with strong product power and service power can be recognized. , Active response, or take the lead.

Sun Quncun, general manager of Rongxin Brand Marketing Center, pointed out that the original intention of the exploration of the new model was to return the real estate industry to a healthy development and virtuous circle. The underlying logic was to prevent financial risks. He believes that enterprises' exploration of quality is also a new development model. Enterprises can adhere to their original intentions on the management and quality end, so that they can obtain market recognition and sustainable development.

Bottom thinking: keep safety

Different from the periodic adjustment of history, the current round of shuffle will "deleveraging" to the end. Those companies that pursue high leverage, high turnover, and blindly pursue scale have encountered difficulties, and stable housing companies and stable housing companies and Deep -cultivating real estate companies benefit from good capital turnover efficiency.

Feng Jun emphasized that after experiencing this round of market fluctuations, it is necessary to fundamentally adjust the development model of the original leverage. One is to improve the capital structure and increase the proportion of direct financing; the other is to improve the financing method and reduce the proportion of external liabilities The third is to adjust the scale of financing; the fourth is to pay attention to risk monitoring and prevent problems before they occur.

As an example, Lin Zhong pointed out that Xuhui can live today because of strict financial discipline and strict bottom line thinking. In order to continuously improve credit rating and reduce financing costs, the company's internal regulations cannot over -financing. "This just creates our restriction on the liability ratio and the bottom line of cash flow."

Huang Juncan, who has the experience of front -line actual combat experience, also said that the pursuit of scale and profit balance of Goldland did not adhere to the annual scale to grow. He said that the company also maintained a high degree of self -discipline in finance, rationally controlled the level of debt, and did not blindly push the liability rate. Even when the US dollar debt was the most loose, it did not blindly increase the proportion of US dollar bonds.

"First of all, real estate enterprises must return to steady ideology, one must attach importance to the balance of scale, profits and liabilities, and the other must adhere to long -termism, and the third must return to the residence attributes." Zhang Yong, vice president of Jinke, said Adjust the psychological expectations of profits and learn from the manufacturing industry. In addition to the products, we must excel in the product, and the development model must be sinking. "To be a century -old enterprise, what is important is to continue to operate. What is more important than high profits in the short term is' Yuanyuan Long". "Zhang Yong said.

Breakout: Crossing cycle

At the moment full of uncertainty, even if the dividend of the development business has been peaked, there are a large number of unimpeded demands related to supporting and service areas related to residence.

The business logic of returning to the industry itself, based on the actual opportunity of real living needs, and establishing a business model based on real customer needs, creating a very competitive professional ability and management capabilities, in order to achieve certain development and high -quality development.

Zhang Xu, the chairman of Vanke Wanwei Logistics, shared during his speech. For a city and the people, there are many other needs in addition to real estate. For real estate companies, you can also see the transformation space around these needs. Logistics is to link the business and beautiful life scenarios of residential, property, commercial, hotel, food, food and other business.

Yi Jun, general manager of Longhu Guanyu, said in the exploration of Longhu in the leasing market that the operation of rental housing involves complex area management and service management. Especially when the enterprise achieves a certain volume, the management system must have to be With this, we must pay attention to the comprehensive construction of the digital management system.

Yi Jun said that adhering to the attitude of long -termism, there must be both the far -reaching concerns of "the roof of the sunny day", but also the planning of "rainy night to catch the long road". "Only by doing operations and services can we harvest fruits in the future."

Wu Jun, president of Xuhui Construction Management, takes the development of the agency industry as an example. Based on the long -term development, the agency construction industry should do a good job, do well The commissioner's service is good, and the real value creation is provided for each client, so that the construction can go longer and farther.

Zhao Tongyang, vice president of Anjuke, saw digital opportunities. Zhao Tongyang said that the digital transformation of the real estate industry will bring new kinetic energy. She takes digital marketing as an example. Through the intelligent analysis of big data, it can effectively improve the precise marketing of customers and optimize the home buyer's experience.

The second curve: seize the opportunity

What is parallel with the development of the development business is that the service -oriented business has begun to show tension and toughness, especially the track of property services. It has more imagination because of its high certainty and persistence.

Yang Man, executive director and chief financial officer and vice president of Sunac Services Group, said that property services are light asset business and low dependence on financial leverage. Compared to the real estate development business model, property services are more sustainable. Therefore, from the perspective of development, real estate development is already in the middle and late stages, and property services are still in a very early stage. It has great development. space. "The current fluctuations of the real estate development business will only have a certain impact on the growth rate of the property service industry. In the long run, the property service industry will not change greatly in the direction and trend. Serving enterprises better tap the industry's own development potential, "Yang Man said.

Ye Shiyuan, CEO CEO of Liangxing, believes that with the end of the era of development, property companies can break through two aspects. One is to broaden service boundary services more customers, and the other is to deeply excavate customer needs.

Wang Zhongqi, vice president of Hejingyouhuo, mentioned that he should do his own business chassis. In the future, there are many opportunities to wait for digging in the property service industry. "With the extension of the service sector, there are many markets with different formats and special services waiting for us to develop and improve. Therefore, property enterprises should have the ability to develop throughout the format, and they can also pay more attention to differentiated brands and products. It is enough, and there is no need to fight in the internal roll between enterprises in a small area, which can open more blue sea tracks, "he said.

Looking forward to the future, You Jianfeng, chief strategic officer of Xincheng Yue Service, believes that the valuation of the property has a long -term nature and should return to the pursuit of quality growth. "The trend of standardized development of the property service market is unchanged. I believe that more and more property service companies will adhere to the service concept and return to the true."

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