The U.S. economy may slip into the recession, the gold price will bottom out and rebound

On July 28, the Fed announced that it had raised interest rate hikes 75 basis points. The international gold price rose continuously in the week, rose 3.2 % a week, and pulled up a Changyang week.

International gold price bottoming back

After a significant interest rate hike again, the market generally believes that the Fed in the dilemma of controlling inflation and avoiding falling into economic recession. Powell also said in his speech after the interest -interest meeting. Without a decrease, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for a total of 150 basis points in two months, the largest interest rate hike since 1980. Given that the current employment market and wage level in the United States are still strong, the economy has shown strong flexibility. After the interest -bearing meeting, Powell's remarks have revealed some pigeons. The interest rate hike at each interest rate meeting will be a hot spot for market attention.

On August 5th, the latest heavy data -non -agricultural employment data and unemployment rate in the United States in July will be announced. The unemployment rate in the United States this year is gradually declining, and the wages are strong. However, on the other hand, the vacancy of jobs in the United States has always been high, which is also one of the reasons for the rising salary. Many companies hope to increase salary to fill the vacancies, but compared with the inflation rate of high -speed growth, the actual wage growth level in the United States will grow level. It is still lower than the growth rate of inflation, which also stimulates more and more people to change jobs due to salary reasons.

The situation where the US labor market is still scarce has not yet been qualitatively changed. On the whole, the temporary unemployment population has returned to the level before the epidemic. The profit margin of the enterprise has gradually recovered from March this year. Although the consumer market has structural adjustment, the consumption expenditure of residents is still strong.

In view of the current employment level of the United States and the still strong economy, the unemployment rate is close to 3.5 % before the epidemic, and the price of gold is still full of variables. Affected by Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose together, and at the same time, US debt yields fell, which will attract more funds to enter the stock and bond market, and to a certain extent, it will also inhibit the continued rise in gold prices.

The price of gold this week may be adjusted and price digestion after the employment data is not announced, and the further price trend depends on the announcement of the data. The price of gold may be called this week. From the perspective of the current employment performance of the overall market in the United States, it does not support the price of gold prices to rise.

The market predicts that non -agricultural employment data in July was 25,000, which was greatly lower than the previous value, and the level of unemployment rate remained unchanged, which fully illustrates the market's confidence in employment status. From the attitude conveyed by Powell's speech after the interest rate at the interest rate, the level of the next interest rate hike is likely not so aggressive, or after September and October, it will be reduced.

The pressure levels above the gold price this week are $ 1785/ounce and $ 1804/ounce. Unless there is greater benefits, it is difficult to reach a higher pressure level of $ 1835/ounce. The support level below is $ 1762, $ 1753/ounce, $ 1740/ounce. In July 25, the price of gold rose very much in the week, and the price recovery was normal.

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