Keeping stability is the key task of rubles

The picture shows the head of the Moscow Victory Park. Photo by Economic Daily reporter Li Chunhui

Recently, the international currency market has been unpredictable, the euro has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and it has fallen below the affordable market psychological barrier, a 20 -year low. At the same time as the US dollar is strong, the continuous appreciation of Russian rubles has attracted attention from all parties. There are divergent opinions on the best exchange rate range of rubles, but stability is still the current focus.

In the early days of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, the series of strict sanctions in the West caused the ruble exchange rate. Surprisingly, after a sharp depreciation of about 20 days, the ruble exchange rate rose against the trend and entered the road of appreciation for 3 months. According to data from the Russian Bank of Russia (Russia), on March 11, the US dollar reached a low of 120.38 in the US dollar and continued to appreciate. new highs. Since then, with the decline in international oil prices and the intention of the Russian government, the ruble has depreciated slightly, and it is currently stable at 55-60.

In the context of unstable world economic situation, sanctions on Western countries, and Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, the trading rate of the ruble can achieve such achievements. The French "Figaro" said that the appreciation of rubles has reached 45%to 50%since the beginning of the year, which shows that rubles have become "the island of prosperity in the boring ocean of financial turbulence."

However, the continuous appreciation of rubles in the short term has also attracted the attention of Russian high -level. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said that over -appreciation of rubles has become a special concern for the federal government and the central bank. However, there are different opinions in Russia on the issue of ruble exchange rates.

People tend to be strong rubles. The Russian commercial institution "Webbankir" survey showed that most people believe that the US dollar against the ruble exchange rate is more suitable at 50 levels. Nearly 40%of the respondents said that this number is not more than 50, and nearly one -fifth of the sufferings of nearly one -fifth. Visitors believe that 50-60 is the best exchange rate, less than 10%of the respondents support 60-70 exchange rates, and about 4%of the 70-80 exchange rate range. Some experts explain to this that for the people, a strong ruble is a symbol of economic strength. From the perspective of ordinary people, this helps reduce prices, especially imported goods.

From the perspective of government departments, excessive ruble exchange rates are also problems. Russian Finance Minister Silu Annov said that the exchange rate of $ 1 against 50 rubles does not meet the current reality of Russia. Taken together, a strong ruble will adversely affect the Russian economy. On the one hand, it affects exports. Silu Annov said that the appreciation of rubles caused concerns about exporters such as agriculture and energy. The strengthening of the country's currency will reduce export revenue, and the state treasury income may lose hundreds of billions of rubles. The second is not conducive to budget. Excessive appreciation of rubles has a negative impact on budget revenue, and the reduction of budget revenue will limit its ability to provide financial support for economic and social development. Some financial experts said that for Russia officials, the 50th level may be the invisible "red line" of the US dollar against the ruble exchange rate.

Excessive or too low in the exchange rate of rubles is not an ideal result. The violent changes in the exchange rate are even more unpleasant to the government and the market. In summary, Russian currency needs to find a reasonable exchange rate range and stabilize in a reasonable range to avoid violent appreciation or depreciation. Some experts point out that the best ruble is a stable ruble, avoiding changes in investment and consumption experience in the "roller coaster".

Regarding the exchange rate mechanism, the Russian government is concerned that excessive appreciation of rubles will cause enterprises to suspend production and lose their jobs, and excessive depreciation will cause increased prices and increased poverty. Therefore, Silu Anov said that Russia will continue to adhere to the floating exchange rate policy to better adapting the economy to the changing external environment. But the government has not reached a consensus on this issue. Russian Treasury Secretary also said that under the current situation, it is necessary to rebuild a predictable system that operates under budget rules.

Regarding a reasonable range, Andre Buelusov, the first vice prime minister of the Russian Federal Government, said that the 55-60 US dollars against the ruble exchange rate shows that the ruble is too strong. In the current circumstances, for the Russian industry, 70-80's 70-80 The exchange rate is a balanced and reasonable interval. The market predicts that the ruble may gradually call back to this scope by the end of the year, and the ruble will still appreciate in the short -term before achieving this goal.

The most important thing to maintain exchange rate stability is the stable development of the Russian economic foundation. Such as getting rid of excessive dependence on energy. Sergei Zubov, a senior researcher at the Camina Research Laboratory of the Gadal Institute, said that due to international factors and Western sanctions, the Russian economy will have to significantly reduce dependence on oil and natural gas income. Another example is the efficiency of import substitution. Experts said that the more progress on the road of imported by Russia, the less concerned about the exchange rate of the ruble.

Maintaining the exchange rate stable Russia faces many challenges. Frequent accounts are facing imbalances in imports and exports, and imports are seriously limited; "friendly countries" currency in foreign exchange reserves cannot completely replace the US dollar. However, it can be seen that the Russian government is actively discussing and exploring on this issue. (Economic Daily reporter Li Chunhui in Moscow)

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