Federal interest rate hike affects geometry

Xinhua News Agency, Washington, June 15th (International Observation) The Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike affects geometry

Xinhua News Agency reporter Xiong Maoling

Due to the "high fever" of the United States' inflation, the Federal Reserve announced on the 15th that 75 basis points raised interest rates, and raised the federal fund interest rate target range to 1.5%to 1.75%. This is the Federal Reserve's maximum rate hike since 1994.

Analysts believe that as the Fed's monetary policy has further shifted to the "eagle", the US stock market and housing market have been impacted, the employment market is facing challenges, and the risk of economic "hard landing" has increased. At the same time, the Fed's tightening of the negative spillover effect of monetary policy has also caused the global financial market.

The tightening policy continues to increase

The Federal Reserve's Federal Public Marketing Committee ended a two -day monetary policy meeting on the 15th. The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at a press conference after the meeting that at the last meeting held in early May, members of the committee generally believed that if the economic and financial situation developed in line with expectations, this meeting should consider 50 basis points in interest rate hikes. However, in the face of the recent development of inflation data such as unexpectedly rising, the committee believes that the meeting is necessary to raise a greater interest rate hike, and at the same time continue to significantly reduce the scale of the balance sheet.

From 25 basis points in March, to 50 basis points to raise interest rates in May, and to 75 basis points in this interest rate hike, the Fed's urgency of controlling inflation is evident. Powell admits that the rate hike at 75 basis points is "extraordinary".

According to data released by the US Department of Labor on the 10th of this month, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1%month -on -month, an increase of 8.6%year -on -year, and a year -on -year increase of more than 8%for three consecutive months. Earlier, some economists had believed that American inflation may have been "top" in March.

Powell also said that from the current point of view, the next meeting is likely to continue to raise interest rates 50 basis or 75 basis points, and the committee will make decisions based on future economic data. He said that the Fed tends to raise interest rates at the early stage of the interest rate hike cycle, leaving a choice space for subsequent monetary policies.

The quarterly economic prediction released by the Federal Reserve on the day shows that the Federal Reserve officials have a median forecast of Federal Fund interest rates at the end of this year, which is 3.4%, which is significantly higher than the March forecast 1.9%. The medium value of economic growth in the fourth quarter of this year was 1.7%from the fourth quarter to the fourth quarter of this year, which was significantly lower than the 2.8%in March.

The risk of US economic recession rises to rise

Wells Fargo Securities Economist Sarahhus and Michael Pricer pointed out in an analysis report that the Federal Reserve's prediction of economic growth is still quite optimistic. The rate will return to the Fed's 2%goal, which may cause greater damage to the labor market.

Economist Destmond Rachman, an economist of the American Institute of Enterprise Research, told Xinhua News Agency that the decline in the stock and bond market prices since the beginning of the year has led to about $ 12 trillion in US family wealth evaporated. As the Fed further tightens monetary policy The stock market has fallen sharply in the past few days, which may indicate the "hard landing" later this year.

Adam Poson, director of the Peterson Institute of International Economic Research, believes that accelerating interest rate hikes or earning interest rate hikes have little impact on the risk of recession. The most important thing is how much the Federal Reserve ’s final interest rate hike. He told a reporter from Xinhua News Agency that if the interest rate level at the end of the rate hike cycle of this round of this round of interest rate hikes was adjusted from about 3%to more than 4%, it may cause economic recession.

According to the prediction released by the Bloomberg Economic Department on the 15th, the US economy is likely to 72%of recession by 2024.

Global financial market pressure

Analysts pointed out that the slow initial operation of the Federal Reserve has led to a certain extent that the United States has faced the most serious inflation situation in 40 years. This will not only have an impact on the US economy itself, but also affect the global financial market.

Rahman told reporters that the Fed's continuous interest rate hike is prompted to flow from emerging market economies into the United States, which may lead to debt defaults in some economies and put pressure on global financial markets.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank estimate that 60 % of the low -income countries are already in a debt dilemma. World Bank President Malpas previously stated that countries were facing serious financing pressure and expected that the debt crisis would "continue to deteriorate" this year. The IMF believes that the main central bank should clearly communicate when tightening monetary policy, and beware of bringing overflowing financial risks to the fragile emerging markets and developing economies.

Person pointed out that due to the sharp interest rate hike in the Fed, some low -income economies will have financial difficulties, facing the trouble of high food and energy prices, and still under the haze of the new crown epidemic. However, Person believes that most low -income economies are more capable of responding to the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes than in the past, so it is unlikely to have extensive financial instability.

[Editor in charge: Wang Yan]

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