Analysts watch the price of gold | Heavy data weekly strikes. Can the price of gold be established?

Lu Jun

Chengdu Fengye Service Co., Ltd.

On July 25th, the international gold price showed an oscillation trend, with a minimum of $ 1711/ounce, and the maximum rose to nearly $ 1768/ounce area. A weekly line was collected. From the perspective of the weekly level, the trend of Lianyang is the first time since mid -May. This also shows that the international gold price has stabilized after the low at the beginning of March 2021 and has received strong support.

In this way, the author said that the US dollar index showed a top signal, especially after the European Central Bank opened the road of interest rate hikes, the exchange rate of the euro/USD ushered in the transfer. When the exchange rate of the euro is gradually separated from the trough, this also indicates that the strength of the US dollar index will come to an end.

In the analysis of several logic of the US dollar weakened, although the euro is an external factor, it also plays a very important role. Because the weight of the euro in the US dollar index accounted for more than 57%, the trend of the euro and the US dollar showed a negative operation. The internal factors are mainly because the US economy does not support the long -term strong operation of the US dollar. Especially after the Federal Reserve was announced in June ultra -high consumer price index (CPI) data, the Fed did not exceed expectations of interest rate hikes. The upper limit. This has lost its main driving force for the US dollar that has always been strong. Therefore, in terms of external factors or internal factors, the US dollar is facing the risk of decline. With the decline of the dollar, this has a strong stimulus effect on international gold prices.

The GDP data (GDP) data released in the second quarter of the United States last week was -0.9%, and the final value of the GDP in the first quarter was -1.6%, which showed negative growth for two consecutive quarters. Technical recession. Although the United States does not recognize the decline in the US economy, such economic trends will contain the Fed's future monetary policy.

Federal Reserve President Powell's interest rate hikes mentioned the impact of interest rate hikes on the economy after the interest rate resolution last week, and said that the possibility of slowing rate hikes does not rule out. This further illustrates that the Fed's interest rate hike will gradually weaken, which has formed obvious pressure on the 10 -year bond yield market. From the past week, not only the US dollar is weakening, but the US bond yield market has also shown a weak pattern. Therefore, regardless of market exchange rate or interest rate market, it has shown signs of weakness, and undoubtedly provides the opposite of the international gold market.

From the trend of international gold prices, the weekly level has shown the trend of Lianyang, breaking the recent disadvantaged pattern. What's more important is that the international gold price rose stabilized after the lower 2021 low, indicating that a strong support platform was found below. At present, the international gold price daily level has shown the trend of Sanlian Yang, and the upward structure continues. The pressure on the international gold price is located around $ 1815/ounce, and the retracement supports is $ 1735/ounce. The international gold price is expected to maintain an upward pattern this week.

Wu Di

Independent analyst

In terms of fundamental terms, last week, the annual rate of core personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) in the United States in June recorded 4.8%, surpassing 4.7%of the expected expectations. The monthly rate of the PCE price index in the United States recorded 0.6%, the largest increase since May 2021. Inflation has become the biggest problem in the US economy. Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostek said that the Federal Reserve "will have to take more measures", but the specific details depends on the data of the next few months.

The final value of the consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in the United States recorded 51.5 and expected to be 51.1, which is still low in history. The data of June was repaired from 50 to 51.5 from the historical low, and the expected index of this month fell from 47.5 in June to 47.3, the lowest since 1980. Long -term inflation is expected to be repaired from 2.8%to 2.9%, hovering around 11 years of high point, which constitutes pressure on consumer confidence.

From a technical point of view, last week's gold price rebounded sharply from a low of 1711 US dollars/ounce, a high of 1768 US dollars/ounce, closed at $ 1766/ounce. Explain that the current bulls have advantages. The first resistance on the top is paying attention to $ 1783/ounce. The random indicators of the daily line have entered the super -buying area, suggesting that there are signs of callback at the beginning of the gold price. Turn more air, and the first support below pays attention to $ 1726. The above suggestions are personal views, for reference only.

Zhou Zhicheng

Guantong Futures precious metal researcher

Last week, the Federal Reserve meeting continued to raise interest rates at 75 base points. Since March, 4 times the total interest rate increase is 225 base points. However This gives market participants a huge confidence, that is, it is definitely not the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike and the price of the gold price. Even if the Fed is in the middle of interest rate hikes, the overall inflation level in the United States is still high. It can already promote the rise in gold prices.

According to data from the US Department of Commerce last Friday, the PCE price index in the United States increased by 6.8%year -on -year, in line with expectations. The core PCE price index increased by 4.8%year -on -year, and market expectations were 4.7%. The labor cost index of the Fed's important reference index increased by 1.3%in June, and the consumption expenditure price index rose 1%in June, the fastest growth rate since 2005. It is worth mentioning that the salary and salary of American cultural staff increased by 5.3%year -on -year, a record high. The number of vacant positions reaches 11.3 million in the record level. Employers have to attract and retain employees with higher salary and other benefits, leading to continuous increase in labor costs. The July US consumer confidence survey released by the University of Michigan last Friday shows that long -term inflation is expected to be repaired from 2.8%to 2.9%, hovering around the 11 -year high. The final value of the consumer confidence index was from 50 liters from the historical low in June to 51.5, which was low in history. Considering that the US GDP has been negative for two consecutive quarters, the United States has essentially entered a technological decline, and the current symptoms of the United States are undoubtedly stagnation. Technically, the golden line of the gold price of the gold price has continued the overall rebound with the golden price of the gold price, and the US dollar index fell from above 109 to below 106. Gold price resistance is $ 1800/ounce, $ 1833/ounce, $ 1850/ounce. Gold price support is at $ 1750/ounce, $ 1725/ounce, $ 1700/ounce, $ 1680/ounce. Gold prices have reached a continuous rebound after the key support of $ 1680/ounce. This week, it is expected that the price of gold is ranging between 1748 and 1828 US dollars per ounce. Due to the announcement of non -agricultural employment data in the United States in July this week, the price of gold may have unexpected high fluctuations.

Last week, the silver price also closed the Dayang line, and the gold and silver ratio fell to 86.9 times. The bottom of the silver price has been corrected. This week, the price of silver is expected to be more than 19.7 ~ 21.5 US dollars/ounce. Inner high throwing low suction, fast in and fast out.

Hongjie

Register for senior gold investment analysts

From the perspective of the news, after announced the economic data of the United States and worrying in the United States last week, investors' concerns about the decline in the US economy exceeded their concerns about inflation, risk aversion demand rose, and supported a certain support for gold in the short term.

From a technical point of view, the Zhongyang Line was finally closed last week. From a technical perspective, there is still a demand for rebound in the short term. The following focus on support of 1690 ~ 1720 US dollars/ounce area support. The above focuses on the resistance of 1820 to 1850 US dollars/ounce area. The overall idea this week: low and many.

Wang Runjiang

National Registered Gold Investment Analysts

In the past week, the price of spot gold continued to rebound, with a maximum of $ 1767.82/ounce, and closed at $ 1765.93/ounce, rising 39.01 US dollars or 2.26%throughout the week. From a fundamental point of view, the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made a word of words after the interest rate hike. In addition, the US GDP data was accidentally atrophied, which caused the US dollar to decline significantly, which stimulated the price of gold.

The Fed announced as scheduled 75 basis points, which meets market expectations. However, in the September interest rate hikes, the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said whether to implement a very large increase in interest rate hikes depends on economic data. The pace of interest may slow down. The United States announced that the GDP in the second quarter was calculated by 0.9%at an annual rate, which was declining in the second quarter in a row. Previously, the market was expected to increase by 0.5%.

Due to the slowdown in the U.S. interest rate hikes and weak economic data, the US dollar index continued to fall last week. In the middle of the week, it fell below the $ 106 mark and closed at 105.9, a decline of 0.71%. The US dollar index had fallen for two consecutive weeks. At present, the US dollar index is soft and investors' concerns about the decline of the US economy are the main factor affecting the current gold price. The market will usher in non -agricultural employment data in July this week. It is expected that the data will prove that economic growth has slowed down, or once again triggers gold prices.

Technically, the spot golden line last week was suppressed first, and the short -term strong and weak indicator RSI rose further to the top 60, reflecting the current long -occupied advantage; the weekly line rose in the second consecutive week, and the technical form trend was better. Combined with fundamental analysis, it is expected that the gold price will continue to rebound this week, and the amplitude will increase. The downlink direction first looked at the $ 1748/ounce (Fibonacci, which rose 19.1%from March 2021 to March 2022). The first resistance level is located at US $ 1786/ounce (from $ 1046.27/ounce to $ 2074.84/ounce 38.2%of Fibonacci retreat), such as breakthroughs to continue to look at the $ 1,800/ounce mark.

Shen Guofu

Wing Kun Holding Investment Research Center precious metal analyst

The Fed announced that 75 basis points were in line with market expectations. The price of spot gold began to rebound after the boots landed. The US dollar index continued to fall below the 106 integer mark, and then the US GDP accidentally decreased by 0.9%in the second quarter of the United States. The signs of the United States' recession became more and more obvious, which caused the market to continue to increase the Fed's continued interest rate hikes. Bounce.

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