The stock price of pig farmer Zhengbang is cut off, and 40 billion photovoltaic stories are difficult to save the market

Wen | Ningwen

The pigs of Zhengbang Technology (002157.SZ) seemed to be unveiled.

On July 23, 2022, the "Finance News Agency" stated that the multi -site pig agreed households of Zhengbang Technology faced different degrees of disconnection challenges, and also faced problems such as difficulty settlement and difficulty in deposit refund. At the same time, some aggressive households also stated that because of the increase in the problem of disagreement, the pigs in Zhengbang Technology even appeared a tragic situation of "pigs."

Even the feed supply is very nervous, which may show that the capital chain crisis of Zhengbang Technology has been in a hurry.

However, on July 25, Zhengbang Technology issued an announcement that the disconnection was mainly due to the occasional phenomenon of a small part of the coordination of logistics distribution and feed factories at the beginning of the month. Normal production and operation activities have been solved by resource coordination as of now. "

However, investors did not let go of the Zhengbang Science and Technology Announcement. On July 25, the stock price of Zhengbang Technology fell as high as 8%, and a single -day decline was 6.66%.

It was not accidental to deviate from Zhengbang Technology. Since the beginning of 2022, the negative news of Zhengbang Technology has continued, either a business ticket or the reduction of major shareholders. The above issues may only involve the interests of the company's management, but the pig breaking involved in the foundation of the business may indicate that Zhengbang Technology has reached the time of life and death.

Zhengbang Technology stands on the edge of the cliff

Since its earnings of 5.744 billion yuan in 2020, Zhengbang Technology has fallen into the quagmire of losses.

Picture source: Zhengbang Technology

The financial report shows that in 2021, Zhengbang Technology lost 18.819 billion yuan. In Q1 in 2022, Zhengbang Technology lost 2.433 billion yuan. According to the semi-annual preview of 2022, in the first half of this year, Zhengbang Technology was expected to lose 3.8-4.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year losses of 165.72%-221.66%.

Continuous losses have also ruined the cash flow of Zhengbang Technology. According to the financial report, as of the end of 2021, Zhengbang Technology's total assets were 46.567 billion yuan, liabilities were 43.121 billion yuan, and the debt ratio was 92.6%, an increase of 34.04%year -on -year. In Q1 in 2022, Zhengbang Technology's total assets were 41.93 billion yuan, liabilities were 40.687 billion yuan, and the debt ratio increased to 97.03%.

Zhengbang Technology's cash flow is tense enough to be able to pay for business tickets. On June 9, 2022, Zhengbang Technology issued an announcement saying that due to the tight mobile funds, some business votes in the company and subsidiaries have not been paid overdue. As of the announcement of the announcement, the total amount of overdue payment has a total of 542 million yuan.

In the face of the above predicament, Zhengbang Technology is not doing nothing. Since 2022, Zhengbang Technology has repeatedly sacrificed the strategies of controlling shareholders' reduction, sales monetization, and new association guarantees to alleviate the pressure of cash flow.

Picture source: Zhengbang Technology

For example, on July 16, 2022, Zhengbang Technology issued an announcement of pre -disclosure of the shareholding shares. The announcement shows that the controlling shareholder Zhengbang Group and the unanimous acting in Jiangxi Yonglian, intending to be reducing the holdings of centralized bidding transactions within six months after the announcement of the announcement of the announcement. 2%).

In response to the reasons for reducing holdings, Zhengbang Science and Technology explained that "to meet the needs of Zhengbang's technology production and operation, increase funding reserves ... provides favorable conditions for Zhengbang Technology's expansion of production."

A series of capital operations may not alleviate cash flow pressure, because the anxiety Zhengbang Technology has even begun to open the "minor pig".

Sales briefing shows that in June 2022, Zhengbang Technology's commercial pigs weighed 75.49 kg/head, down 12.81%month -on -month, only 52.57%of the same period last year. Considering the situation where rare commercial pigs weigh less than 80 kg/head, this may also show that Zhengbang Technology hopes to quickly return the urgent desire of funds.

However, because the liabilities in Zhengbang Technology have almost tied the total assets, its eager "discount" blood return method may also be difficult to reverse the dilemma of cash flow pressure in a short time.

"Pig Cycle" underestimation is not the original sin

In fact, the problems encountered by Zhengbang Technology are not an example.

As of July 29, 2022, in addition to Wen's shares, the other nine major A -share pig farming listed companies have issued disclosure of the first half of the year's performance trailer. Among them, eight companies lost money, with a total of about 14 billion yuan in pre -losses.

As the Zhengbang Technology semi -annual report stated, "the average price of domestic pigs in the first half of the year is still at a low level, and the price of feed raw materials has risen, which has caused the company to bear certain performance pressure in the first half of the year." In the first half of 2022, pig farming companies were in a quagmire of losing money, which was under pressure from the industry.

From a cost perspective, the price of feed raw materials continues to rise due to factors such as geopolitics and epidemic.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry, in the first half of 2022, corn, soybean meal, and fattening pigs with feeds increased by 5.0%, 16.1%, and 6.0%, respectively. In this regard, Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said: "Rising feed costs are the main factor of increasing costs for livestock and poultry breeding."

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry, the average monthly wholesale price of pork in June 2022 was 21.57 yuan/kg, up 4.3%month -on -month. Although the price of pork has risen slowly since March, in terms of horizontal comparison, in June 2022, the price of pork is still 8.2%lower than last year. The average price of the Chinese pig market is still at a low reality, and it has also made the "big pig farmer" represented by Zhengbang Technology. According to the financial report, in the first half of 2021, the average sales price of pigs in Zhengbang Technology was 12.74 yuan/kg, a year -on -year decrease of 37.49%.

Although Zhengbang Technology has been in a "pig cycle" trough of a "pig cycle" low in the quagmire, it is worth noting that its debt ratio is high and no one in the industry can get right.

In the first half of 2022, the three companies with relatively high losses were Muyuan, Zhengbang Technology, and new hope among the major A-share pig breeding listed companies. 3.9 billion-42 billion yuan. In Q1 in 2022, the debt ratios of Muyuan shares and new hope were 65.18%and 68.43%, respectively, both lower than that of Zhengbang Technology.

In response to the current status of Zhengbang Technology's losses and debt ratios, Zhu Danpeng, vice chairman of the Guangdong Food Safety Guarantee Promotion Association, said: "Zhengbang Science and Technology loss is not an example, but the liability ratio is higher than the peer. Seeing improvement, it is not related to its blind expansion. "

After making a lot of money in 2020, Zhengbang Technology began to expand at a high speed. According to the financial report, from 2020 to 2021, the number of pigs in Zhengbang Technology was 9.5597 million heads and 14.926 million heads, respectively, an increase of 65.28%and 56.14%year-on-year.

This is likely to be caused by the further proportion of self -consummation in Zhengbang Technology. It is understood that in 2021, the proportion of Zhengbang Technology "Company+Farmers" and self -consummation was about 4: 6. In contrast, in 2020, this ratio was still 6: 4. In this regard, Zhengbang Technology stated in the financial report: "In order to better adapt to the development needs of the business, the company will increase the tilt of self -consuming and self -cultivation in the future."

Picture source: Zhengbang Science and Technology Finance Report

Although self -care and self -supporting can quickly increase the amount of pig pigs, Zhengbang Technology has also paid a very high price. According to the financial report, in 2021, Zhengbang's total investment was 28.224 billion yuan, an increase of 229.99%year -on -year. Most of these investments point to pig farming companies.

Zhengbang Technology, which has a certain scale of pigs, undoubtedly hopes that pig prices will rise, but it may not be the case. Because pork is a necessity of people's livelihood, once the price rises quickly, it is likely to be regulated.

On July 15, 2022, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics stated: "The overall production capacity of pigs has returned to the normal level, and the price does not have the foundation of a significant increase. The departments will strengthen market regulation and stable supply and demand relationships will promote the smooth operation of prices. "

"New Story" is difficult to be a heavy responsibility

The main business can't see hope, Zhengbang Technology tells a new "story".

Picture source: Zhengbang Technology

On June 17, 2022, Zhengbang Technology and State Power Investment signed the "Carbon neutral" Comprehensive Smart Energy Project Agreement. The two parties will establish cooperation in the construction of optical excellence, wind power, comprehensive smart energy and other projects. The total investment in the three years is expected to be about 40 billion yuan.

On June 20, the stock price of Zhengbang Technology rose a daily limit. As of the close, Zhengbang Technology's stock price was 6.95 yuan/share, an increase of 9.97%.

However, Subsequently, Zhengbang Technology received a letter of attention from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, requiring the former to "explain in detail the background, purpose and specific cooperation method of carrying out this cooperation with State Electric Power Investment, and match whether your company's current development status and future development planning are matched. "

Subsequently, Zhengbang Technology explained that the company mainly promoted the project in the form of leasing. The initial period of the project will be invested by State Power, and the company only collects rents by leased roofs.

Zhengbang Technology can collect how much rent is charged by renting roofs, regardless of whether it is the most uneasy thing for investors, the agreement between Zhengbang Technology and State Electricity Investment is not a steel plate.

In response to whether it involves liability for breach of contract, Zhengbang Technology said: "The agreement is a framework agreement, which is a guiding document for friendly cooperation between the two parties, and only constitutes a strategic cooperation intention. The basis for pursuing the responsibility of the other party's breach of contract. "

It is precisely because the "photovoltaic story" is too dreamy that investors have begun to depart from Zhengbang Technology. Ten days after the release of the "Carbon neutralization", the minimum stock price of Zhengbang Technology was only 5.97/share, which fell 14.1%compared to the high point on June 20.

Picture source: Baidu

In fact, stretching the timeline can see that investors have begun to vote Zhengbang Technology with their feet. On January 11, 2022, the stock price of Zhengbang Technology reached a high point of 10.73 yuan/share, but then, its stock price was "falling endlessly". As of July 29, 2022, the stock price of Zhengbang Technology was only 6.07 yuan /Share, the high point of teaching fell 43.43%, almost chopped.

All in all, due to the major earnings of 2020, Zhengbang Technology has begun to develop unrestrainedly.The "pig cycle" trough of overlapping stages in the previous two years, the problem brought about by the cash flow of Zhengbang Technology.In the context, the price of pigs is difficult to rise in a short period of time, which also makes Zhengbang Technology's dilemma of losing money and unable to extricate themselves.

Although the "photovoltaic story" of Zhengbang Technology is in line with the trend of carbon neutrality, on the one hand, the story has not landed, and on the other hand, even if the project is landing, Zhengbang Technology is only a "chartered wife", it is difficult to balance the pig business businessGreat loss.

Therefore, in a short period of time, Zhengbang Technology may still go forward.

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