Mizuizhu reported to see: the media is short, and there are many brokerage sangs. Who is the eyes of fire?

This article is based on public information, which is used only for information exchange and does not constitute any investment advice.

Production/company research room wine industry group

Text/Huai Liangyue

Shuijingfang (600779.SH) is not a front -line white wine, but the semi -annual report every year is usually the first one in the circle. However, the semi -annual report disclosed on the evening of July 26 failed to surprise the market. On the contrary, the epidemic disturbing the revenue of the liquor industry in the first half of the year.

According to the financial report, in the first half of 2022, Shuijingfang achieved revenue of 2.074 billion yuan, an increase of 12.89%year -on -year, and a net profit of 370 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 2%. People in the industry said that the company's revenue and performance in the first half of the year were slightly lower than expected, but the profit of 7.11 million yuan in the second quarter was much better than the loss of more than 40 million yuan in the same period last year.

However, investors do not buy these local improvements. On the contrary, from the first semi -annual report of the liquor industry, they saw the severe challenges facing the industry. After the financial report was announced, Shuijingfang's stock price declined for three consecutive days, down 9.87%. The entire liquor sector also fell simultaneously. In 2021, the Waterjing Semi -annual report introduced a scene with collapse the entire section, and unfortunately staged again.

01 Specification summary: consumer scenarios are shrinking, channels are difficult to sell, cash flow is tight

An industry insider once admitted to the company's research office that due to various reasons, the data of the domestic liquor listed company, the data of Shuijingfang is relatively "real", and there are fewer adjustment. The meaning of the industry is significant, so every time it is released, it will attract great attention from all parties.

The company's research room viewed a number of media reports, and also read the research reports of a number of securities firms, as well as the comments from some industry experts, and found a very interesting phenomenon: the same financial report, the interpretation of all parties is very different, even the opposite, short bears, shorts, shorts, shorts, shorts, shorts, shorts, shorts, shorts, shorts, shorts, shorts, shorts, shorts, shorts, shorts, shorts. Seeing the adverse effects of the impact of the epidemic, the bulls saw the hope of rebounding in the peak season in the second half of the year.

This phenomenon is a bit similar to the world's interpretation of Shakespeare's drama. There are a thousand different Hamlet in the eyes of a thousand people. However, unlike people's appreciation of art, the different interpretation of the financial reports of the listed company's financial reports is involved in a complex interest pattern, and even brings very different investment operations.

Although the views have different views, the company's research room found that everyone could hardly focus on the water in the water Jingfang intermediate newspaper: "During the reporting period, my country's economic continued to face demand shrinkage, supply shock, expected weakness, and weakened triple pressure. At the same time, it was affected by the domestic epidemic situation. The super -expected factors such as rebound and other factors have shocked, liquor consumption scenes are shrinking. After years of high -speed development of the liquor industry, the contradictions accumulated in the development of the industry are also further emerging. In the second half of the year, the industry is expected to continue to face the challenges caused by epidemic and economic slowdown. , Difficult to sell channels, increase social inventory, and tight cash flow. However, the company is still cautious and optimistic about the long -term development of the industry. Consumption upgrades will continue to affect the industry's medium and long -term development. Consumers attach more importance to brands, quality and services, grasping the above trends above the trends above Traditional liquor companies will occupy the opportunity in the future industry competition. "

In this paragraph, the summary of the current status of the liquor industry is in place. Among them, the "liquor consumption scenario shrinks" in the first half of the year; the industry faced "difficult sales, increased social inventory, and tight cash flow." These descriptions are directly hitting the pain points of the industry and touched the sensitive nerves inside and outside the circle. In fact, most of the reports and interpretations of all parties are around the above points.

02 Media reports are empty: "stall" in revenue, a decline in net profit, and double -digit inventory increased

Browse the reports of various media, and the view of the financial report of Shuijingfang is generally empty. Interestingly, many media mainly focused on the black body content in the above summary. Most of them were quoted to confirm the financial data of related negative phenomena. As for the company's caution and optimism of the industry's medium and long -term development, they were almost automatically ignored by them.

This can be seen from the title of various reports.

"The first semi -annual report of liquor listed company: Double -digit inventory of the net profit decline in Shuijingfang has increased greatly." This title comes from a urban newspaper in the south. It is reported that through Shuijingfang's semi -annual report, the company's inventory has risen further to 2.321 billion yuan compared to the end of 2021, of which inventory products, that is, the finished wine, is 253 million yuan in the same period last year. However, the financial report of Shuijingfang noticed that starting from the first half of last year, the value of the inventory goods in Shuijingfang has exceeded 200 million yuan, and at the end of last year, it reached about 286 million yuan, which also means that the product promotion of Shuijingfang may have difficulty in product promotion since last year.

The title of a financial media in the north is even more straightforward: "The first semi -annual report of liquor has highlights the difficulty of selling channels! High sales expenses drag the profit of the profit of the profit of the industry in the second half of the year."

Another well -known media, which is well -known by the Financial Report, is simple and powerful: Shuijingfang "stabilizes".

The article wrote: "The semi -annual report of Shuijingfang (600779.SH) is usually the first in the liquor listed company. The high -end price (600702.SH) and alcoholic wine (000799.SZ) have slowed down. In fact, Shuijingfang has refreshing its own record: the semi -annual report announced on July 26 shows the display show The company achieved revenue of 2 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of nearly 13%year -on -year. This is the first half of the half year since the listing of Shuijingfang. Compared with three times the ultra -high -speed growth, the high -end wine with a proportion of revenue of up to 97%in the semi -annual revenue in 2022 decreased to 11%. "Of course, there are also some reports in the media, but search data from Baidu search data Look, there is obviously less than the empty report.

03 Securities firm research reports: continuously working on high -end circles, until the dark moment has passed, and the goal of the whole year can be expected.

Unlike financial media reports, it is basically sang for the current reports of Shuijingfang's interim report. Even if some unfavorable financial data of Shuijingfang stated in the first half of the year, the ending point is optimistic about the growth of the company's peak season revenue in the second half of the year, and it is full of expectations for the company's mid -to -long -term prospects.

Debon Securities said that the epidemic disturbance temporarily put pressure on the income, and the ton price increased significantly. 22Q2 revenue increased by 10.4%year -on -year, of which high -end wine revenue was 620 million yuan, an increase of 9.8%year -on -year, and the revenue of mid -range wine was 200 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 27.5%. Revenue growth mainly contributed from the increase in prices. The total sales of 22Q2 alcohol fell by 4.9%year -on -year, and the ton price increased by 13.6%year -on -year. It is expected that the decrease in sales is mainly due to the epidemic cause.

According to open source securities, in terms of section, the five markets have maintained double -digit growth, Sichuan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong have performed well, and the Henan market is facing greater challenges.

Everbright Securities said that the growth of 22Q2 report revenue was slightly lower than the previous channel feedback. It is estimated that it has not yet been shipped to some repayment to confirm the revenue. As of the end of the second quarter, the contract liabilities were 857 million yuan, an increase of 220 million compared with the same period last year.

According to BOC Securities, the main product of Shuijingfang is located at the secondary high -end price belt, and the banquet in the demand for sub -high -end wine accounted for a relatively high banquet, and the epidemic impact in the first half of the year was large. The company's current overall social inventory is higher than the same period last year, but it is still at a healthy level, and the company has not pressed the channel too much.

Shengang Securities said that it has passed by the dark moment and the goal of the whole year can be expected. The second quarter is the off -season of the company's sales. Since the second quarter of 2018, it is the lowest quarter of the company's revenue. Therefore, the epidemic has a controllable impact on the company's whole year. On the whole, the social inventory cycle is within 5 weeks, and the provinces with better growth are less than 4 weeks.

Guojin Securities said that the company's previous planned 22 years of revenue/profit growth was 15%, and the progress in the first half of the year was slightly delayed. In the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to the company's Mid -Autumn Festival sales.

Cinda Securities said that Shuijingfang has increased its momentum in recent years, but the market believes that Shuijingfang is small, and the brand power is slightly insufficient compared to other old -fashioned wines. At the same time, it has been impacted by sauce. It has continued to grow uncertainty in the future. With the establishment of high -end sales companies in 2021, Shuijingfang is expected to enhance the operating capabilities of the collection and above products, and the results of high -endized results are worth looking forward to.

04 Experts and institutions attitude: brand high -end breakthrough difficulties, northward funds to reduce holdings, Hongde Fund dumping in

Compared with media reports and seller reports, the comments of those relatively independent market people may be more objective. After the Shuijingfang Intermediate Report was disclosed, some experts in the industry expressed their views in an interview with the media.

"Since the second half of last year, the entire Chinese alcohol has slowed down. In addition, in the first half of this year, under the influence of many uncertain factors such as the epidemic and economy, the consumption scenario of the alcohol was blocked and the channel inventory was too high. The decline in product sales rate has caused a lot of pressure on the development of the entire Chinese wine company. In such an environment, it is indeed even greater for national chemical companies like Shuijingfang that are implementing product structure upgrades. "Liquor marketing Expert Cai Xuefei analyzed that Shuijingfang's performance has maintained a double -digit growth, but the profit has not increased. The main reason is because of the high -end product structure. The newly launched collection brands, including large -scale activities, require a large number of advanced investment. This To a certain extent, the profit of the enterprise was lowered.

In the first half of the year, the sales cost of Shuijingfang was about 696 million yuan, an increase of 19.27%year -on -year. Among the sales expenses, advertising and promotional fees occupy most of them, about 527 million yuan.

In 2021, Shuijingfang proposed three strategies: "product upgrade innovation, brand high -end, marketing breakthrough". In this regard, Xiao Zhuqing, an expert in the liquor industry, believes that "Shuijingfang has missed the opportunity to become a liquor head camp." He explained in detail: "Now the mid -to -high -end liquor Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe, and Luzhou Laojiao have formed a head camp. Relying on local support, adherence to the local base market will lead to the viciousness of the liquor market in the liquor market. " In the past, he believed that the latecomers chased the cost huge. Relative to the sitting of experts, the fund -based institutions use real gold and silver to express their views on Shuijingfang. The central report shows that compared with the end of the first quarter, the number of shareholders of the company changed from 82,688,900, an increase of 2.73%.

Among the top ten shareholders, as of June 30, the capital of the north has been reducing its holdings since this year, which is completely opposite to the sharp increase in the operation in the 4th quarter of last year. Among the domestic capital, the most representative China Merchants China Securities Liquor Index Hierarchical Securities Investment Fund Increasing holdings in the first quarter, reducing holdings in the second quarter, all the number of shares increased in the first quarter has been sold; the Penghua Fund, which had held heavy positions before, left only Penghua's Certificate ETF; Only the fund is diluing, and 6 of the top ten funds holding Shuijingfang shares are only its products of the company.

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