In July, the PMI dropped to the contraction range, and the macro policy needs to actively act

Zhang Aoping/Wen July 31st, the National Bureau of Statistics released the manufacturing procurement manager index, non -manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index in July 2022. Among them, the manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI) was 49.0%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, and was below the critical point; the non -manufacturing business activity index was 53.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and it was still in the expansion range; The comprehensive PMI output index was 52.5%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, which is still higher than the critical point. On the whole, the level of manufacturing, non -manufacturing, and enterprise production and operation in July fell.

As the advanced indicator of economic operation, PMI fell to the contraction range in July (49.5%in March, 47.4%in April, May 49.6%, and June 50.2%), which reflects that my country's economic prosperity level has fallen. Stable, and the current economy is in a key window of stability, and the economic operation in the second half of the year still faces greater uncertainty. Especially in the market subject, the recovery of small and medium -sized enterprises is still insufficient, and the key "pain point" problem has not yet been relieved. We believe that the policy of policy still needs to grasp the time window. The fiscal and monetary policy must increase its efforts to effectively make up for the insufficient social needs and make the private sector relay the government departments. increase.

First of all, from the perspective of the five classification index that constituted the PMI of the manufacturing industry, the comprehensive decline was reduced, and only the supplier delivery time index was higher than the critical point. Specifically, the production index was 49.8%, a decrease of 3.0 percentage points from the previous month; the new order index was 48.5%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month; the raw material inventory index was 47.9%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; practitioners; practitioners The index was 48.6%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the supplier delivery time index was 50.1%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. It shows that the overall manufacturing industry is affected by many factors such as traditional production off -season, lack of release of market demand, low prosperity in high energy consumption industry, and weak market entities. big. In addition, the proportion of enterprises that reflect insufficient market demand have increased for 4 consecutive months, and more than 50 % of this month. Insufficient market demand is the main difficulty facing the current manufacturing enterprises, and the long -term insufficient market demand will continue to weaken the company's expectations.

Secondly, from the perspective of large, medium and small enterprises, large and medium -sized enterprises have fallen to contraction range, and small enterprises are still in the contraction range. Large -scale enterprise PMI is 49.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of the medium -sized enterprise is 48.5%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of small enterprises is 47.9%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. This year, it has continued to shrink this year. Division. Among them, the production and operation pressure of large -scale enterprises is larger than the production and operation of medium -sized enterprises, and the development expectations are weak. This is also the key "pain point" problem for the current economic growth to achieve steady growth.

On July 28, the Politburo meeting requested that "to give full play to the initiative of enterprises and entrepreneurs, to create a good policy and institutional environment, so that state -owned enterprises dare to work, private enterprises, and foreign companies dare to invest." It shows that the positive attitude of policies is not or not. Allows the development of small and medium -sized enterprises to continue to weaken.

On July 13, the executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that "employment is the top priority of people's livelihood and the important support for stable economic markets. Employment can create wealth and increase income, thereby driving consumption and stimulating economic growth." Continue to implement the policy of helping enterprises' rescues, open up the implementation point, and implement the packaging of social insurance premiums, stable return, and employment subsidies. " In the second half of the year, compared with other economic goals throughout the year, the most important goal is that the unemployment rate is within 5.5%. In a complex and severe economic development environment, if the target of the unemployment rate can be kept, economic activities can operate normally. Even if the economic growth rate does not reach about 5.5%of the annual goals, it is also very successful. And small and medium -sized enterprises contribute 80%of the employment in the market. Stable employment must first stabilize SMEs. As long as small and medium -sized enterprises have sufficient development confidence, employment positions will achieve endogenous expansion.

At present, the economy is in a key window of rising. In July, the PMI reduced the contraction interval again, which reflected that the foundation of the economic recovery was not firm, the recovery momentum was still weak, and the confidence of SMEs was insufficient. On July 28, the Politburo Conference clearly requested that "macro policies must actively act as a way to expand demand. Fiscal and monetary policy must effectively make up for the lack of social needs." On June 29, the Executive Meeting of the State Council also pointed out that "the implementation of a good monetary policy, using structural monetary policy tools to enhance financial services to serve the real economy capabilities, and effectively help to stabilize the economic market and stabilize the people's livelihood."

We believe that under the premise of reasonable and moderate macro fiscal and monetary policy, it will not rush to turn, but will be more accurate and powerful, and will be more active in expanding effective demand. The efforts of subsequent policy operations should be transformed from wide currencies (increasing basic currency) to wide credit (physical use currency). At present, the focus of wide credit is to use currencies, that is, the development of private enterprises and residents' loan consumption.

(Dean of the author of the Institute of Extraction)

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