"Prisoners' Dilemma" of prefabricated dishes | New consumer freezer war

Text | Mountain Walnut

Prefabricated dishes -this new type of processed food that may be semi -finished products is just like a hurricane.

In the elevator, the overwhelming "tongue hero" tells people that "everyone can easily be chefs"; in the supermarket freezer, the quick -frozen giant Anjing Food and Aquarius Guolian Aquatic Products is burning the war of prefabricated dishes to the offline; "Level national team" has also entered, and the country's first provincial prefabricated vegetable industry investment fund announced in Guangzhou ...

When this hurricane was blown to Xiamen, Luo Min had new stories and new troubles. In recent days, with the escape of stars such as Fu Shiger and Jia Nailiang, the prefabricated dishes in the store have fallen into an unprecedented "original crime controversy". No one could think of it, just half a month ago, the boss Luo, who had the courage to face the media again, gave a new definition to his company under the screen of "Top 200,000 Stores":

"Fun Store prefabricated dishes are not an Internet company, we are a consumer company, or we are a food company."

Regardless of whether Boss Luo's words are true or false, or whether he really understands the model of prefabricated dishes, this sentence just summarizes the current complicated competition pattern of prefabricated vegetables:

There are Internet cross -border players, new retail and catering giants, as well as agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing companies that have been silently in the upstream raw materials for more than ten years.

According to the forecast of securities firms, the size of my country's prefabricated vegetable market in 2022 will reach 415.15 billion yuan, and this figure will be turned over by 2025, approaching the trillion threshold.

But behind this seemingly beautiful business, there are a few that can run to the end. Whether it is the market education on the consumer or the large -scale problem of the supply side, there are many questions that need to be answered. Those processed food manufacturers who run in front or newly entered the game want to tell us that the prefabricated dishes have realized the "fast and good" life we ​​want, and we no longer surround the stove, people are chefs.

But don't forget that in their hands, these semi -finished products are industrialized products, not nutritional products, but they are deploying weapons to defeat competitors.

Understanding this war about prefabricated dishes still has to return to offline.

From the supermarket to the vegetable field, the prefabricated dishes start the "freezer battle"

In the summer of 2022, the story of the freezer no longer belongs to ice cream and water. Many people feel that they are not fresh and not a large sales area in this side. New players are coming.

Obviously, this change was Li Hong, a salesperson who has been soaked in the supermarket for more than 20 years. Those who like to visit this area, there are many young people who don't seem to be cooking. This is due to the layout of the pre -made players on the head.

"Which is more convenient and delicious?" This is a problem that Li Hong has often been asked recently.

When asked about such questions, some are young people like Chen Jie. After being bombarded by the elevator advertisement, Chen Jie decided to try prefabricated dishes in person. In the aquatic area, she witnessed the "freezer war" of prefabricated dishes.

Photo by the author of Nanjing Yonghui Supermarket offline store

On the electronic screen of not far away, the slogan "Eat roast fish, eat dragon bully!" At present, Guolian Aquatic Products -The freezer of this aquatic pre -production giant is full of various dishes: chopped pepper fish heads, flavor grilled fish, garlic fan scallops ... The slogan of "Guolian prefabricated dishes, 30 minutes a table".

Photo by the author of Nanjing Yonghui Supermarket offline store

On the other side, the quick -frozen food company Anjing Food firmly dominated the breakfast scene, and binded the spokesperson Su Bingtian with the "breakfast is fast". In 2021, the revenue of Anjing prefabricated vegetable business reached 1.429 billion yuan, accounting for 14.21%, an increase of 112.41%year -on -year.

Photo by the author of Nanjing Yonghui Supermarket offline store

In March of this year, Aoi smashed 1 billion yuan to put the first prefabricated vegetable production base in Honghu, Hubei. On the day of the signing ceremony, Liu Mingming, chairman of Aoi Food Group, excitedly pointed out: "(Honghu Pre -production dishes base) will greatly enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of Anjing's prefabricated dishes channels."

The Chinese pay attention to "the people take food as the sky", but Anjing said "food is the people". To some extent, in order to meet the fast -paced life, just offline freezer, food manufacturers tried to explain idealism about prefabricated dishes:

A table can be done with prefabricated dishes, and everyone can become a cooking master in the circle of friends.

Compared with the battle in the supermarket, some brands choose to be partial.

The "first stock of prefabricated dishes" was faintly faint in the city. At the entrance of a farmer's market in Nanjing, financial and economic visits have visited the Mi Zhixiang offline store. In the small facade shop, the freezer is mainly sold in the freezing, which is mainly sold, that is, cooking, etc.

Writing on the wall with the stock code is the prefabricated menu that is well -known. From the perspective of product categories, the stored stores are mainly selling conditioning meat products. The owner of the shop said to the financial and economics that fish balls, chicken legs, etc. are all sold well. In the freezer on the other side, finished vegetables such as fish fragrant meat are deserted.

It is firmly bound with the vegetable market. With decades of channel operations, as of 2021, Mi Zhixiang has formed "1319 franchise stores and 572 dealers" channel networks.

Photo by the author of Nanjing Weixiang offline store

Lu Zhengyao, who "secondary entrepreneurship", also opened the "tongue hero" to the gate of the community. You can see a lot of "Ruixing" shadow on this pre -production brand. For example, the coupon subsidy and delivery model can be selected "self -lifting" or "delivery". If you choose to mention yourself, you will see the following scene in the "Tongue Hero" store:

When the order is generated, the owner takes out the sealing ingredients and seasonings from the freezer of the order, and then put them in a brown paper bag. It doesn't matter if you don't deal with these semi -finished products. The paper bag is attached to the two -dimensional code, which can "scan the code to see the practice".

Photo by the author of Nanjing tongue hero offline store

In a "tongue hero" offline store in Nanjing, the owner showed the explosive items in the store to the Finance and Economics.

"Our lamb chops are delicious." She pointed at the picture above the freezer, describing the meat quality of the lamb chops from the financial and economic. "There is also Gongbao Chicken, but now it has been sold."

From coffee and small noodles to prefabricated dishes, Lu Zhengyao's entrepreneurial business is amazingly similar to Boss Luo's boss. On the outlet of prefabricated dishes, the two meet again, and they are also controversial.

When the time returned to Xiamen in mid -July, Luo Min opened the "price war" of prefabricated vegetables with a penny of sauerkraut fish. At that time, he might not have expected the direction of the incident later. At the strategic conference that day, Boss Luo talked about many idealism about prefabricated dishes, such as "let users use our products an hour more every day", such as "doing one thing is more good for him."

Either offline war or founding story, these are full of idealism. But behind the prefabricated dishes is a larger proposition. It is not a matter of a certain category, not a matter of a certain type of consumer, but the difficulty of the industrialization of Chinese catering.

To some extent, prefabricated dishes are just a banner on the ship of the Chinese -style catering industrialization. Let this flag float first. First of all, let the ship move.

To b or to c, it may be two businesses

In fact, prefabricated dishes are not a new thing.

In the 1990s, as Western fast food such as McDonald's and KFC entered China, the delivery factory of the net vegetable processing plant began to appear. If the list of suppliers of McDonald's and KFC, from chicken, tarts to fritters, a number of suppliers such as Sannong and Qianwei Chong Kitchen have emerged.

Unlike such companies that focus on working to work for end brands, in the early millennium, professional semi -finished vegetable production enterprises have emerged in China. It is better to favor and Mi Zhixiang. The two semi -finished product companies born in Suzhou have been established. Offline is the home advantage of such enterprises.

At that time, the Chinese prefabricated vegetable market was far from being so prosperous today. The concepts of ordinary Chinese people on prefabricated dishes are mostly concentrated in the elementary processing ingredients: shopping for a supermarket, and by the way pick some fish balls in the freezer; or enter the vegetable field, buy some pickled chicken legs or shredded meat.

Change is often related to the times. Each generation of catering people need an external revolution. The rapid development of takeaway platforms and ignite the fuse of the development of the prefabricated vegetable industry. With the trend of catering chain, catering companies' requirements for standardization are getting higher and higher, which directly drives the improvement of B -end prefabricated dishes.

The demand of the C -end is directly derived from the repeated epidemic. Prefabricated prefabricated dishes that can make kitchen can also burn a table of good dishes.

The demand at both ends of the BC has risen, making pre -making dishes a hot business. According to the company's investigation data, ten years ago, the registration volume of prefabricated enterprises was less than 2,000. Ten years later, in 2021, it broke out to nearly 60,000.

The heat is still rising. In the first half of 2022, more than 1,020 registered enterprises were added, with a growth rate of 42.7%.

A firm investor is full of confidence in prefabricated dishes. An investor believes that behind the prefabricated vegetables carrying the heavy responsibility of Chinese food industrialization:

"KFC McDonald's burgers and chicken legs can swept the world, can our braised pork be done? This is the market for prefabricated dishes."

According to incomplete statistics, from 2021 to 2022, there were more than 20 financing incidents in my country's prefabricated vegetable industry, and the financing amount reached tens of billions of yuan.

A clearer prefabricated vegetable industry chain is formed.

The upstream is those raw materials suppliers with mature experience, which stuck to other people's necks on the source of raw materials. Mid -reaches are professional prefabricated vegetable companies and quick -frozen food companies. They are good at deep processing, and the channel layout is also what they have been doing.

A large number of C -terminal players emerged from the downstream of consumers: one is Cross -border retail corporate Hema, one is Internet players such as fun shops, tongue heroes, etc. The same catering company. They are closer to the fickle consumers, and they can better control the changes in the taste buds of the Chinese.

As mentioned above, prefabricated dishes are nothing new in China, and there are only three ways to place in front of industry players:

First, just do the B -end and do the "workers" behind the brand, rely on scale to go, although there are fewer gross profit than the C -end, but fortunately stable.

Second, either do the C -terminal and drive the store to consumers. With the brand premium, there is enough room to increase the price, but how to use the taste of consumers also becomes a metaphysical student.

Third, either walking on the two legs and the two -tube end of the BC. Most companies seem to follow this path, showing a trend of two -way penetration in the upper and middle reaches.

For example, the quick -frozen food giant Anai has adjusted its corporate strategy into "BC and two -wheel drive" in recent years. When the epidemic affected by the epidemic is weak, the B -end catering company has a weak performance, and chose to find a new curve from the C -side. Guolian aquatic products have withdrawn from the seafood prefabricated vegetable brand "Little Batong". In response to investors' questions, the management clearly stated that in 2022, the company will actively expand the C -end channels and accelerate the penetration of the C -end market for the prefabricated vegetables. But the B -end and C -end of the prefabricated dishes may be two completely different businesses.

At the B -end, hotels, chain catering, small and medium -sized catering companies, and takeaway industries constitute a large and certain market for B -end.

Why is it certain? Because prefabricated dishes can indeed reduce the cost of catering companies. Among my country's head chain catering companies, the proportion of real kung fu, Xibei and other companies has reached more than 80%.

As a representative of ALL in pre -made dishes, Xibei founder Jia Guolong directly took the pre -made dishes "Jia Guolong Kung Fu Cai" named after his name, and shouted for this Chinese -style catering revolution in various occasions.

However, although the demand is certain, there is a difference in demand in large B and small B, which also tests the ability of prefabricated vegetable companies.

In the large B -end of hotels and chain catering, it pays more attention to the quality, customization and differentiation of the product. This requires prefabricated vegetable companies to have certain R & D and pre -sale and after -sales capabilities. Such customers have strong viscosity and are typical. They are typical, which is typical. Closed channels.

The small B -side is different. Different from hotels, chain catering, etc., focusing on differentiated capabilities. Small and medium -sized catering companies and takeaway companies are mainly pursuing the standardization and cost -effectiveness of products. The more SKU, the better the price, the better the price is.

Therefore, it is not difficult to see that the B -end business of the prefabricated dishes is more popular with the comprehensive strength of the player, not only must there be enough channels to maintain the connection with the B -end, after all, the Chinese catering market is very scattered; With the supply chain capacity, ensure that the product can be customized or large -scale.

Half of the flames, half seawater, but another scene on the C end.

In the C -end business of prefabricated dishes, most players will tell the story of penetration. For example, Luo Min once said: "Ordinary people are actually exposed to prefabricated dishes." Therefore, the penetration rate is also an important anchor point for market betting prefabricated C -end.

But at present, different from the certainty of the B -end, C -end prefabricated dishes are still low -frequency consumption. Data from IResearch show that users buy prefabricated vegetable products every week in 2021 mostly 1-3 times.

In other words, in the C -end, the demand for prefabricated dishes is not rigid, and market education is still in the initial stage.

The reason for the low frequency is determined by the C -end demand pyramid.

From the perspective of consumer portraits, the consumer group of prefabricated dishes is not a 10%full -time wife or nanny on the head, nor is the bottom layer very sensitive to the price, but the middle level has a certain consumption capacity, pursuing comprehensive cost -effectiveness, and it is true People who have no time to cook. According to the calculation of brokerage analysts, the proportion of such C -end consumers in 2025 accounted for about 30 % of the overall prefabricated market.

Another major reason is the lack of terminal prefabricated brands. An owner of a local "tongue hero" in Nanjing told the financial and educated. At present, the order of stores is still mainly based on take -out, and most of them are also young people who come to buy. "Most people don't know (this brand)." The owner said this.

However, if a prefabricated vegetable company can not only meet the complex needs of the B -end, but also make a brand on the C end, so that the B -end and C -end heart are willing to eat the "semi -finished product", can this company worry about it?

The answer is of course negative. On the profound catering rivers and lakes in China, the story of prefabricated dishes has actually been staged countless times.

Prefabricated dishes prisoner's dilemma: pain in the industrialization of Chinese catering

In China, making catering is a difficult thing.

Regarding the future of Chinese prefabricated dishes, in the eyes of researchers, there are actually two modes: one is the American model and the other is the Japanese model.

The development of American prefabricated dishes has greatly improved from the rapid improvement of quick -frozen technology, population density and industrialization. In the book "The Growth of the United States", the author described the prosperity of the processing food companies in detail:

"From street hawkers to street grocery stores, they are selling foods that are not suitable for human consumption."

American families have long been familiar with the days of coexisting with prefabricated dishes. Each family consumes 2 pounds of fish and 1 pound of salmon per week. The weekly dairy consumption includes 1 pound of butter, 1 pound of cheese and 16 eggs. Grain foods include 7 pieces of bread, 49 bread rolls, 2 boxes of biscuits and 1 box of breakfast grain food.

Picture source: pexels

Behind these prefabricated dishes lying in supermarket shelves are the boost of large -scale comprehensive food groups such as Nestlé, SYSCO, and Connigra. Most of these leading American companies have been expanded through multi -brand operations and horizontal mergers and acquisitions.

Japan, which belongs to the East Asian circle as China, follows another path.

After World War II, Japan's resources and food were extremely short, and the Japanese government began to vigorously develop frozen food business. With the recovery of the economy, the consumer demand for residents has increased. By the 1960s, women's out -of -working population increased significantly. The Japanese economy entered a period of rapid growth. The end is quickly penetrated.

Among them, under the guidance of the scale economy, leading enterprises, including Sun Leng Group, increased the market share through the acquisition of other small and medium -sized enterprises. CR3 increased from 51.4%to 59.0%, and CR5 increased from 70.1%to 79.2%.

But returning to China's prefabricated vegetable rivers and lakes, the situation is much more complicated.

On the one hand, the Chinese food culture is vast and profound, and the eight major cuisines formed the SKU of the Chinese catering market. Compared with Americans's frozen pizza and prefabricated salads, Japanese fried rice, ramen and tempura, the complex dishes and taste systems of Chinese food make any prefabricated vegetable company.

On the other hand, the decentralization of the Chinese catering market. Taking Zhixiangxiang as an example, although the number of offline stores has surpassed competitors, the market share is less than 1%.

Boss Luo, who started a business again, was right. When asked about the goal of 200,000 offline stores, Boss Luo believed: "Not only does not have a brand at the front end, but no one does such a thing at the back end. "In his opinion, it is a potential opportunity for a couple's shop.

For Chinese prefabricated dishes, there is a typical prisoner's predicament: none of the companies can do huge SKUs, and no company can master extremely decentralized offline channel networks.

Perhaps it can be understood that most of the catering practitioners have failed to find the routine of consumers and the market, and industrialization seems to be the only story that can tell.

After all, no one who makes catering is not eye -catching KFC and McDonald's. Because under the epidemic, your noodle restaurant may be closed down, but KFC at the door of your house will definitely not.

Finding certainty in an uncertain era, and industrialized products represented by prefabricated dishes have naturally become the best sustenance of catering people.

To achieve industrialization, you must first pass the threshold for large -scale.

Although the securities company researchers are full of expectations for prefabricated dishes in the research report, most of them still focus on those fast -frozen food companies.

Taking Anjing Food as an example, its rolling price -earnings ratio is 60.71 times, the market value of more than 400 billion yuan, and Zhizhi Xiangxiang rolling Performing -earnings ratio is 42.39 times, and the market value is close to 6 billion. Guilian aquatic products turned their profits until the first quarter of this year, and finally got out of the quagmire for three consecutive years.

On the complex prefabricated vegetable rivers and lakes, there are many fast -frozen companies in the market, which can be seen compared to Anjing Food and Guolian Aquatic Products. Anjing Food revenue is twice that of the National Lianlian aquatic products, but the market value is 10 times that of the National Lianlian aquatic products.

The advantage of quick -frozen food is only the comprehensive capabilities accumulated in channels, product research and development and supply chain for many years. In the decentralized Chinese catering market, people fancy them just because these quick -frozen companies are the most likely to achieve large -scale one -scale one. Apply for players.

What's more important is that the complex catering culture has long raised the stomach of the Chinese. When you choose to eat prefabricated dishes, you have fallen into a kind of health and busy manufacturing. To some extent, this is a filter -type fireworks.

In the offline store of a hero of a tongue in Nanjing, the owner told a similar story to the Finance. The shop owner took her daughter as an example to describe the boom:

"In the past, my daughter only took takeaway, but now she has prefabricated dishes. She will spend two or three hundred to buy prefabricated dishes to invite friends to come home for dinner.

(The interviewees involved in the article are pseudonym)

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