Who is stir -frying the bus?

Author:China Economic Weekly Time:2022.06.16

"China Economic Weekly" reporter Lu Jiangtao | Beijing report

On the evening of June 6th, CITC (000957.SZ), the largest increase in A -share market in the past month, disclosed its production and sales data in May. The announcement shows that the output of Zhongtong Bus in May was 439 units, with a cumulative output of 2580 units in the first five months, a decrease of 14.51%year -on -year; sales in May were 482 units, and the cumulative sales in the first five months were 2739 units, a decrease of 7.72%year -on -year.

In May last year, Zhongtong Bus sales were 766. Based on this calculation, the sales volume of Zhongtong Bus in May this year decreased by 37.08%year -on -year. It can be seen that whether in May or the first five months of this year, the production and sales of Zhongtong Bus have declined year -on -year.

From the perspective of the stock price performance, starting from May 13, the company's stock price daily limit for 13 consecutive trading days, during which 5 times of announcement of stock transactions abnormal fluctuation announcements. Due to the sharp rise in the stock price, the company's fundamentals were deviated from large, and Zhongtong Bus opened a suspension to check the market on June 2. As of press time, Zhongtong Bus has not disclosed the announcement of the verification results.

38 nucleic acid detection vehicles leveraged 6.9 billion market value

In the secondary market, the stock price of Zhongtong Bus has been tepid in recent years. By April 27 this year, the lowest exploration to 3.85 yuan/share. Starting from May 13, the stock has directly opened up the violent lifting mode. From May 13th to May 31st, 13 trading days continued to daily limit, and on June 1 (the last trading day before the trading) continued The closing price rose 6.52%, and the closing price reached 16 yuan/share. According to this calculation, in just 14 trading days, the cumulative increase in Zhongtong Bus has reached 268.66%, and the corresponding market value increased by 6.914 billion yuan.

Recently, multiple car consumption policies have frequently stimulated the recovery of the automobile sector, but behind the strong performance of Zhongtong Bus far exceeding the industry's average gains, more are the popularity of the "nucleic acid detection car concept".

In May, the epidemic in some areas across the country repeatedly repeatedly occurred in the Omikon mutant strains. Most concepts involving "nucleic acid testing" have attracted investors' attention. Among them, Zhongtong Bus has been sought after by funds for launching nucleic acid detection vehicles, becoming one of the most powerful stocks in the near future.

On May 5th, investors on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Interactive Easy Platform asked questions about Zhongtong Bus. Under the normalization expectations of nucleic acid detection, whether the company has a product can also be suitable for this scene and contribute to my country's epidemic prevention work. force. Soon after, Zhongtong Bus responded, and the series of targeted products have been sold in batches to help the epidemic prevention and control. Specific to the product is a nucleic acid detection vehicle.

On May 9, Zhongtong Bus further responded: "The current products sold are 12 meters and 13 meters of nucleic acid detection vehicles, all of which meet the P2+biological safety laboratory standard. , Medical supply drainage system, fully automatic PCR analysis system, 5G signal transmission, etc., have the functions of using mining, inspection, and reporting. In addition, there are negative pressure ambulance products to meet the country's gas exchange 20 times per hour, negative pressure value The requirements of -10Pa to -38Pa and the filtration separation rate reaches 99.9%; the mobile CT car has achieved batch sales since 2021, and played an important role in the use of multiple local hospitals. "

Since then, Zhongtong Bus has opened a continuous daily limit mode, and investors are also concerned. How many nucleic acid testing cars did Zhongtong Bus sell for a total of? How much profit can it bring to the company?

The continuous daily limit of the stock price of Zhongtong Bus has also attracted the attention of the exchange. On May 27, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a letter of attention to the Zhongtong Bus to ask the company to reply to six major issues. Among them, combining the output, income amount, proportion, and order situation of Zhongtong passenger car nucleic acid detection vehicles, it shows that the company's nucleic acid detection vehicle -related business scale and the impact of the company's business development and profitability.

In this regard, Zhongtong Bus issued an announcement on the evening of May 31 to reply to the relevant issues. Zhongtong Bus replied that the company sold 20 nucleic acid testing vehicles from January to April, with income of 61.7097 million yuan, and the product revenue accounted for 5.39%of the company's operating income; As of May 30, the nucleic acid detection vehicle had 18 units in hand, and the estimated income was 45.78 million yuan.

According to this calculation, within 5 months, a total of 38 nucleic acid testing vehicles sold by Zhongtong Bus, with an income of 107 million yuan, exchanged a market value of 6.914 billion yuan within 14 trading days, with an average price of 2.8287 million yuan. The market value of nucleic acid detection vehicles increased by 182 million yuan.

The stock price is soaring, it is difficult to hide the performance of performance

In fact, nucleic acid detection vehicles are not rare. Futian Automobile (600166.SH), Jinlong Motors (600686.SH), Yutong Bus (600066.SH), Dima (600565.SH), which are listed in A shares all involve the production and sales of nucleic acid detection vehicles. When SAIC Group (600104.SH), SAIC Chase also developed and manufactured a series of epidemic -based needs such as V90 nucleic acid detection vehicle, V90 sample transfer vehicle, V90 disinfection vehicle, and G20 epidemic prevention in the shortest time. Epidemic prevention car.

However, the above -mentioned company's rise in May is difficult to look at Zhongtong passenger cars.

In the announcement issued by Zhongtong Bus on the evening of May 31, it has also clearly stated that the nucleic acid detection vehicle business is not enough to have a significant impact on the company's business development and profitability.

In terms of performance, from 2017 to 2021, the net profit of Zhongtong Bus was 191 million yuan, 36.5713 million yuan, 33.0719 million yuan, 23.5237 million yuan, and -2.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 67.36%, 80.87%, and 9.57 9.57, respectively. %, 28.87%, 1033.23%; of which 2021's performance is the first loss since the listing of Zhongtong Bus.

Regarding the loss of performance, Zhongtong Bus explained that the weakness of the bus market and the sharp shrinkage of major overseas customers' demand caused a decline in sales. At the same time, raw materials price increases and domestic industry competition intensified, leading to a significant decline in profits.

The performance has declined for many years, and the nucleic acid detection vehicle business is not enough to have a significant impact on the company's business development and profitability. Why can the stock price of Zhongtong Bus still fly to the sky?

Judging from the Dragon and Tiger List data disclosed by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the stock price of Zhongtong Bus has obvious signs of travel. During its stock price for 13 consecutive daily limit boards, Zhongtong Bus frequently appeared on the Shanghai -Shenzhen Dragon and Tiger List. The seats are frequently on the list. Taking 3 trading days from May 30 to June 1 as an example, the well -known tour "Lhasa Corps" (Oriental Fortune Securities Lhasa Unity Road First Business Department, Oriental Fortune Securities Lhasa East Ring Road First, Second Business Department, etc. ) Become the main force of the trading of Zhongtong Bus.

It is worth noting that since May 25, Zhongtong Bus has a high single -day turnover rate, with 23.67%, 24.12%, 11.39%, 21.58%, 24.44%, and 25.54%of the 6 trading days. Assuming that the opponent of each transaction is different investors, almost a "big blood change" has been completed.

However, with the rise of the turnover rate, institutional funds began to cash out Zhongtong Bus Stocks. On June 1, the two institutions sold a total of 66.55 million yuan. While selling 70.329 million yuan on the same day, one institution bought 6.6887 million yuan; the other institution sold 26.045 million yuan while buying 23.1384 million yuan.

In addition to institutional investors, Zhongtong Bus's second largest shareholder Shandong State -owned Asset Investment Holding Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Shandong SAF") has also recently emerged with the idea of settlement.

On the evening of May 31, while replying to the exchange letter, Zhongtong Bus also announced a "Announcement on the Pre -disclosure of Shareholders' Shares of Shareholders". According to the announcement, Zhongtong Bus received the "Notice on the Reduction of Holding Plan" issued by Shandong Guo, a shareholder in Shandong Kingdom, on May 31, 2022. Within 6 months of centralized bidding transactions, no more than 11.8 million shares of Zhongtong Bus shares, accounting for 1.9902%of the total share capital of the listed company.

(This article published in "China Economic Weekly", No. 11, 2022)