If you want to rush to 50 billion sales, Junlebao needs not only the high -end story

Produced ｜ Company Research Office Large Consumer Group

Text ｜ Wu Yu

Junlebao, which was founded 27 years, finally had a listing intention.

Recently, Zhongyan, vice president of Junlebao Dairy Group, revealed that the company has officially launched the IPO listing project, strives to complete the listing in 2025, and strives to sell for 50 billion in 2025.

In the first half of the year, the demand for the milk powder industry decreased. The revenue and profits of the head company Feihe and Australia have declined sharply. Far than the market expectations, it is valuable that Junlebao milk powder can increase by 40%in the second quarter.

However, the industry has changed from incremental to existing competition. Junlebao's inverse growth may not last long. If you want to develop further, Junlebao needs not only hard work.

01 Four years to build a Junlebao

In 1995, the 31 -year -old Wei Lihua took the only 90,000 yuan, one yogurt machine, and two tricycles, and founded Junlebao in the three small houses in Shijiazhuang.

At that time, Junlebao was also a small company that was not famous. The retail store was unwilling to sell Junlebao's products because of its reputation.

The first box of yogurt sold by Junlebao is still Wei Lihua's mentality of holding a dead horse as a live horse doctor, and helps a cold drink shop to move the sow cream and milk before he can enter the shop of others.

27 years later, Junlebao's product line has been extended from a single low -temperature yogurt to infant milk powder, low temperature yogurt, and room temperature liquid milk, and the products have long been sold from Hebei to the country.

In 2017, Junlebao's income was 10.2 billion, and for the first time, he entered the "Ten billion Club" in China Dairy. In 2021, Junlebao's revenue was 20.3 billion yuan, and the four -year income doubled across the "double tens of billions" threshold.

Except for the two giants of Yili and Mengniu, Junlebao's revenue in 2021 is second only to 29.2 billion and 22.8 billion in Feihe.

During these twenty years, many dairy companies that have been established later than Grand Lebao, such as Junlebao, such as Sichuan's new hope, Xinjiang's Tianrun, and Guangxi's imperial family have been successfully listed. As the leader of Hebei Dairy, Junlebao fell behind in the aspect of listing.

In April 2019, the "2019 Hebei Dairy Revitalization Work Plan 2019" issued by the leadership group of Hebei Province's Dairy Industry Revitalization Working Group mentioned that "supports the listing of the Main Board of Junlebao Dairy Group and expand financing channels." In July 2019, Junlebao and the major shareholder Meng Niu "broke up", which is regarded by the outside world as a prelude to Junlebao's preparation of IPO.

However, it was not until July 4 this year that when Junlebao Vice President Zhong Yan was interviewed by the Shijiazhuang Daily, it was clear that Junlebao had launched the IPO project and won 50 billion sales in 2025.

In order to achieve a large goal of 50 billion yuan, Junlebao took it into three small goals, namely milk powder ranked among the leading brands of infant milk powder in the world, yogurt became the first brand of low -temperature yogurt, fresh milk to become the number one in the country's fresh milk category first Essence

In addition, 2025 will be the 30th anniversary of the establishment of Junlebao. The 50 billion sales target is to create 1.5 Junlebao on the basis of 2021. This difficulty is not low compared to the past four years.

02 Hell difficulty making milk powder

When it comes to Junlebao and milk powder, it is difficult to mention Sanlu. The negative impact of Sanlu on Junlebao and the Chinese still exists so far.

In 1999, Wei Lihua wanted to expand the scale, but suffered from the high popularity of Junlebao. At that time, Sanlu Group, the largest domestic milk powder company in China, wanted to increase the market share of the yogurt business. The two companies took a shot. Sanlu invested in Junlebao in the form of "brand+cash". In addition, 700,000 yuan in cash account for 5%of the shares.

As a result, Junlebao became a related company of Sanlu. Although Wei Lihua insisted on the independent operation of Junlebao, he produced and sold yogurt with the brand "Sanlu Junlebao".

With the blessing of Sanlu, the sales area of ​​Junlebao in 2001 expanded from Hebei to 11 provinces and cities including Henan and Shandong. In 2003, sales exceeded 300 million yuan.

However, in September 2008, the "melamine" incident was like a disaster for Junlebao. Although Junlebao's products at that time were only yogurt and there was no problem in the test, due to the impact of Sanlu's investigation, Junlebao stopped production for 13 days and lost more than 10 million yuan in the month.

The "melamine" incident made domestic milk powder encountered a serious crisis of trust. In 2011, CCTV's "Weekly Quality Report" survey found that 70 % of the Chinese people dare not buy domestic milk.

In this environment, if other new domestic brands make milk powder starting from zero, the difficulty of making milk powder in Junlebao is the hell model.

In 2014, when Junlebao Milk Milk Powder was just listed, the sales website of Junlebao was hacked, and all orders were emptied within a day.

At the Chinese Dairy Conference in 2020, Wei Lihua recalled the dilemma of making milk powder, "At that time, we gave the milk powder for free to consumers. Customer service returned to the company with tears, and some consumers said they did not drink, and some said that the puppies at home loved it. "

However, Sanlu's pouring left huge market gaps for domestic milk powder and Hebei Dairy.

Due to the state's attention to the milk industry and a series of policies, the standards of domestic milk powder have been improved, which has laid the foundation for the domestic milk powder market share in recent years. Euromonitor data shows that in 2020, the top 5 domestic baby milk powder markets are Feihe, Wyeth, Danone, Grand Lebao, and Australia, and foreign brands only occupy two seats. In addition, Hebei Province has launched a support policy for Junlebao, so that Junlebao Milk Fan can achieve rapid development. In 2020, Junlebao's milk powder market share of 6.9%, second only to Feihe in domestic brands.

03 "Price Butcher" in the milk powder industry

Since 2015, Feihe has made breakthroughs from the siege of foreign brands by the positioning of "high -end" and "more suitable for Chinese babies."

At that time, Junlebao, who had just started milk powder, chose a different route from Feihe, focusing on "cost -effective". Liu Senmiao, general manager of Junle Bao Milk Fan Division, believes that in 2014, Junlebao swept the low -end milk powder market with a price butcher's attitude.

Junlebao's first milk powder product was priced at 130 yuan of milk powder with a specification of 900g. At that time, domestic infant formula milk powder was price of 200 and 300, and the mainstream area never had 130 yuan of products.

Junlebao broke the minimum price of domestic brand milk powder. It can be called the "stirrs" of the milk powder industry. Some consumers are called "Xiaomi in the milk powder industry".

Junlebao pushed the price of milk powder to so low. At first, rarely the offline physical channels were willing to sell Junlebao to customers. After all, the profit from the dealers and stores was thin.

It was unreasonable to go offline. Wei Lihua decided to adopt the Internet and telephone sales model. After entering the "Tmall" in 2014, the "Double Eleven" event of that year, Junlebao became the first milk powder brand. The performance of e -commerce channels has led to offline channels. In this way, Junlebao established a foothold in the baby with milk powder relying on low -cost strategies.

From 2015 to 2018, the sales of Junlebao milk powder were 7 times in 4 years, with 720 million, 1.2 billion, 2.5 billion, and 5 billion. The milk powder business became the "second curve" of Junlebao.

Wei Lihua once revealed that in 2021, Junlebao milk powder exceeded 100,000 tons. Some analysts pointed out that this means that the income of Junlebao milk powder in 2021 may have exceeded the 10 billion mark, and basically sitting with the yogurt business.

The cost -effective route has made Junlebao a high growth income, but it seriously affects the profits of Junlebao.

In 2017 and 2018, the net profit of Junlebao was 225 million and 379 million, respectively, with a net interest rate of only 2.5%and 3.2%. In 2020, Junlebao revenue was 14.5 billion yuan, net profit was 538 million, and the profit margin was 3.7%.

Compared with peer companies, in 2020, the net interest rates of Yili and Mengniu were 7.4%and 4.6%, respectively; the pastoral industry was 11.4%; the "high -profile" of Feihe made its profit margin and reached 40%. Among the top dairy companies in the domestic market, the Guangming Dairy only was lower than Junlebao with a net interest rate of 2.4%.

In 2019, Mengniu transferred the equity of Junlebao acquired in 2010, and Junlebao and Mengniu's marriage "Break up" nine years later. Guo Weichang, the financial director of Mengniu, said: "The profit margin of the future acquisition of the target must be higher than that of Junlebao. This is our principle."

04 Against the city's high growth or unsustainable

After Junlebao and Mengniu officially broke up, the pace of layout of high -profit products was significantly accelerated. In 2019, the two profit -type products of A2 milk powder and "Yue Xianhuo" fresh milk were launched in 2019.

At present, a can of 800g of Junlebao to Zhen Zhenzheng 1 milk powder is priced at 282 yuan in Jingdong's self -operated stores, and a bottle of 780ml of "Yue Xianhuo" fresh milk is priced at 19.9 yuan, which belongs to the market. Middle and high -end products are significantly different from Junlebao's previous "parental" line.

In March 2020, Junlebao launched Youcai Organic Milk Powder; in May 2022, he launched three series of products: Zhen Ai Ai, Zhenwei Love Goat Milk Powder, and Xinlezhen. One can of 800g of Zhenai Ai 1 -stage milk powder is priced at 459 yuan, and sword refers to the high -end milk powder market controlled by foreign investment and headpieces.

High -end has significantly drove Junlebao's sales. On July 4, Liu Simiao revealed in an interview with "Shijiazhuang Daily" that the sales of Junle Bao milk powder increased by 40%in the second quarter, and the growth rate of Youcai organic milk powder exceeded 75 in the first half of the year. %.

However, during the layout of Junlebao's layout, since the second half of 2020, the domestic milk powder market has fallen into a price war, and high -end milk powder is the hardest hit area for the price war.

Song Liang, an independent dairy analyst, has said that due to the epidemic, since the second quarter of 2020, the omni -channel of milk powder has already launched a price war. The chaotic channels and prices have made the brand's side, dealer, channel dealers, etc. have been affected to varying degrees.

The price war in the past two years has also made some Bao Da Bao moms see a fact. In the past, high -priced milk powder represents high -end and high quality. It seems to be pseudo -logic.

Behind the price war is that the demand for the milk powder market is declining.

According to AC Nielsen data, in the first four months of 2022, the overall sales of the infantile powder industry decreased by 4.4%year -on -year, and sales volume decreased by 6.2%year -on -year. The overall demand of the industry market was declining.

Recently, China Feihe and Australia have released mid -term performance trailers.In the first half of 2022, China Feihe's revenue decreased by 14.9%year -on -year to 17.4%, and profit decreased by 33.4%to 42.2%year -on -year; Australian excellent revenue decreased by 18%to 21.6%year -on -year, and net profit decreased by 73%to 84%year -on -year.The interpretation of the decline in performance was mentioned that the decline in domestic birth rates led to a decrease in demand for baby milk powder and reducing channel inventory.

The milk powder industry has changed from incremental to existing competition. At the moment when various brands and channels are fighting for price wars, Junlebao's difficulty to rush high -end.More importantly, in the face of the shrinking demand in the industry, the high growth of Junlebao's current stage cannot continue for a long time.

Next, the competition in the milk powder industry will be more intense. Junlebao needs not only hard work and strength, but also funds and luck.

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