Domestic gold demand in the second quarter actually decreased so much, because ...

On July 28, the latest report released by the World Gold Association showed that the total demand for Chinese gold jewelry in the second quarter was 103 tons, a year -on -year decrease of 29%. The recurrence of the domestic new crown pneumonia and the corresponding implementation of epidemic prevention measures in major cities are the main reasons for the weakness of gold ornaments. Affected by this, the consumption of gold jewelry in China in the first half of the year was only 281 tons, a 17%decrease compared to 2021. However, this number is still much higher than the level in the first half of 2020.

In the second quarter, China's Gold ETF's total management assets (AUM) further declined, as of the end of June, the total position was 57 tons (US $ 3.4 billion, 22.6 billion yuan). In the first half of this year, due to the rise in the price of the RMB, some buyers made a profit from the market, which led to the outflow of China's Gold ETF (Exchange Trading Fund) of 1.83 tons (US $ 1 billion, 5.2 billion yuan).

The impact of the epidemic has also affected China's gold bars and gold coins. Due to the slowdown of residents' disposable income growth, the demand for Chinese gold bars and gold coins in the second quarter was 37 tons, a year -on -year decrease of 35%, becoming the worst second quarter since 2010. In the first half of the year, the total demand for gold bars and gold coins in China was only 87 tons, a decrease of 40%compared with last year, the second lowest in the past ten years.

01

The willingness of consumers to prevent sexual savings increases

Ancient French money products are very popular

Regarding the decline in the demand for China's gold jewelry in the second quarter, Wang Li, CEO of the World Gold Association China, said that in the second quarter, it was the traditional off -season of gold jewelry consumption. Due to the epidemic reasons, coupled with the decrease in the growth rate of residents' disposable income, uncertainty is uncertainty, uncertainty It greatly reduces people's willingness to consume, and many factors are superimposed, resulting in worsening the gold jewelry consumption in the second quarter.

Changes in consumer behavior are also the main factor that leads to weak demand. The slowdown in income growth and the uncertainty brought by the new crown pneumonia's epidemic, the downturn of superimposed consumer confidence has significantly increased consumers' willingness to increase prevention of prevention. The latest survey results of the People's Bank of China show that consumers' "more savings" willingness in the second quarter of this year has risen to the highest level of history, and consumer confidence has also declined significantly. In addition to the impact of the new crown pneumonia's epidemic since March, the increase of 5%of the RMB price in the first half of the year may also be an important factor in the demand for decoration.

The gold jewelry market is weak as a whole, but the ancient legal gold jewelry still occupies a dominant position. In the context of the continued popularity of the national tide, the ancient law gold products with traditional cultural atmosphere still maintain a strong attraction to young consumers. Young consumers' requirements for pricing transparency are constantly increasing, and gold jewelry products with weight of 5 grams to 10 grams are more popular because gold ornaments of less than 5 grams are usually "pricing according to parts." In addition, young consumers have limited purchasing power, and most of them can only pay attention to gold jewelry below 10 grams.

The market share of the hard -footed gold has fallen further. As the market becomes saturated and the market competition is becoming increasingly fierce, the profit margin of retailers has been further squeezed, and retailers have originally promoted and hoarding hard -footed gold products. In addition, the transition from the "according to the component" (the main pricing model of hard -footing products) to the "press" pricing, coupled Essence

02

In the second quarter, China's ETF flowed out of 4.8 tons

18.3 tons out of the first half of the year

In the second quarter, China's gold ETF outflow reached 4.8 tons ($ 510 million, 2 billion yuan). In the second quarter, gold prices were relatively stable, or reduced the interest of tactical investors. Most ETF flow occurred in April, which may be due to the increase of 2.8%of the monthly price of the month that caused investors to make a profit.

In the first half of the year, China's Gold ETF flowed out of 18.3 tons ($ 1 billion, 5.2 billion yuan), which was in sharp contrast to the Western market. Wang Lixin believes that in the first half of this year, due to the rise in the price of the RMB, some buyers made a profit from the market. At the same time, the capital market tended to be stable and recovered, which led to the flow of China's gold ETF.

After 2020, the gold ETF position of Chinese investors seems to show several tactical characteristics: During January 2021 to June 2022, the change of domestic gold ETF positions is negatively related to the change of gold prices. AU99.99 (physical gold contract at the Shanghai Gold Exchange) has caused a profit conclusion that the price of gold rose 5%, which may be the main factor that promotes the decline in the domestic gold ETF position in the first half of 2022.

In the second quarter, China's gold ETF positions fell again, exacerbating the net outflow of China's ETF in the first half of the year.

03

The demand for gold bars and gold coins in the second half of the year

It will rise and decline year -on -month and year -on -year

Similar to the gold jewelry market, the epidemic has become the main factor affecting the sales of gold bars and gold coins. Although the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the second quarter has depreciated 5.5%(this usually pushes investors' demand for physical golden avoidance), due to the significant slowdown in the growth rate of disposable income, investors have a lack of physical gold. In the second quarter, the 300 -Shenzhen -Shenzhen stock index rebounded 6.2%, and it was possible to disperse the attention of gold investors.

The distributed branches of commercial banks have become an important support for gold sales. Due to the repeated epidemic situation of major cities, some commercial banks will focus on the key to low -line cities and achieve certain results.

Since the epidemic in major cities in China since March, the sales boom caused by gifts at the beginning of the year unable to reverse the decline in demand for gold bars and gold coins in the first half of the year.However, the demand in the first half of this year is still higher than 2020.Promoted by economic recovery and seasonal factors, the World Gold Association believes that the demand for gold bars and gold coins in 2022 may rise in a month -on -month demand, but the rebound from the previous month may not be enough to offset the overall decline.In the second half of the year, the demand for gold bars and gold coins may decline year -on -year.However, with the relaxation of the epidemic restrictions, many economic stimulus measures are expected to promote China's economic recovery in the second half of the year, and gradually increase the growth of residents' disposable income.The weakness of the renminbi has led to the strong domestic gold price and the risk -free demand in the background of economic downward risks.

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