Global gold demand in the second quarter decreased by 8% year -on -year

On July 28, the World Gold Association released the "Global Gold Demand Trends Report" in the second quarter of 2022, showing that the global gold demand (excluding off -site transactions) in the second quarter decreased by 8%to 948 tons; The demand for gold bars and gold coins is 245 tons, the demand for gold jewelry is 453 tons, the global official gold reserve increases by 180 tons, and the demand for gold for science and technology is 78 tons.

However, driven by the strong inflow of the Gold ETF (Exchange Trading Fund) in the first quarter, the gold demand in the first half of 2022 still increased by 12%compared with the same period of 2021, reaching 2189 tons. Among them, in the first half of the year, the net inflow of gold ETF was 234 tons, the global gold bars and gold coins demand was 526 tons.

In the second half of the year, the World Gold Association predicts that investment and consumption demand is half -mixed, and the supply is expected to increase, but the central bank's purchase of funds may decline to a certain extent.

In April, under the influence of geopolitical risks and inflation pressure, the price of gold rebounded at the beginning; but then investors transferred their attention to the rapidly higher interest rate and strong growth of the US dollar, and the gold price fell in the second quarter. In the second quarter, the gold price declined by 6%, and the gold ETF was also affected. In the second quarter, 39 tons flowed out. Although a small amount of outflows occurred in the second quarter, the gold ETF still had a significant net inflow in the first half of the year. In the same period last year, 127 tons flowed out. However, considering the prospect of inflation that may be low under continuous interest rate hikes, the outflow of the gold ETF in the second quarter may laid the tone of such a weaker demand in the second half of the year.

In the second quarter, the demand for gold bars and gold coins was 245 tons, which remained stable year -on -year. India, the Middle East, and Turkey have contributed to significant demand growth, and balanced the weak gold bars and gold coins caused by the prevention and control of the epidemic. Generally speaking, the demand for global gold bars and gold coins in the first half of the year was 526 tons, a year -on -year decrease of 12%.

Global gold jewelry demand has not yet responded to the level before the epidemic. Compared with the level before the epidemic, there is still a gap of 12%. Global gold jewelry demand in the second quarter increased by 4%to 453 tons year -on -year. Decrease; under the epidemic, the Chinese market has been affected, affecting China's golden jewelry demand in the second quarter.

In the second quarter, the central banks of various countries realized net purchase, and the global official gold reserves increased by 180 tons. In the first half of the year, the total net purchase volume reached 270 tons. The World Gold Association survey report showed that 25%of the central bank interviewed planned to increase gold reserves in the next 12 months.

In the second quarter, the demand for science and technology was 78 tons, a decrease of 2%from the same period in 2021; the overall demand in the first half of the year was 159 tons, a slight decrease year -on -year. The electronic industry is still facing the problem of supply chain interruption, and with the emergence of living costs around the world, consumers' demand for electronic products weakens. The above two factors jointly caused a slight decline in the demand for scientific and technological gold.

In the first half of 2022, the production of gold ore output set a record high since the birth of the trend of gold demand, reaching 1764 tons, a year -on -year increase of 3%. Some projects have been mining higher levels. At the same time, after the security rectification of China in 2021, the gold mine also returned to the normal output level, so global gold ore production was improved. Due to the rise in gold prices in the first quarter, economic dilemma and uncertainty increased, the recycling funds in the second quarter increased slightly. The total amount of recovery in the first half of the year reached 592 tons, an increase of 8%year -on -year.

In the first half of 2022, the global gold market was supported by macroeconomic factors, including high inflation and turbulent geopolitical situations, but at the same time, it also faced the resistance brought about by raising interest rates and almost an unprecedented US dollar soaring. Although the price of gold has declined slightly compared with the abnormal high level in the first quarter, gold is still one of the best assets that have performed so far this year.

Regarding the favorable factors of gold jewelry demand in the second half of the year, Wang Lixin, CEO of the World Gold Association China, said that it mainly focuses on the global economic development situation. Global gold jewelry demand mainly comes from three markets -the Chinese market, India, North America and European markets, of which the Chinese and Indian market accounts for 55%of global gold jewelry demand. In the first half of the year, due to the slowdown of the epidemic and economic growth, the demand for domestic gold jewelry has slowed down, and the current depreciation of India's rubles has been depreciating rapidly. India's domestic gold price has risen sharply and increased the basic gold import tax from 7.5%to 12.5%. In the second half of the year, gold jewelry consumption generates certain suppression. In the second half of the year, the demand for gold jewelry in Europe and the United States mainly depends on economic development. As the third largest gold consumer market in the world, the United States may be supported by strong consumer demand in the first half of the year in the second half of the year, and will provide support for gold jewelry consumption.

Regarding the influencing factors of gold prices in the second half of the year, Wang Lixin believes that the monetary policy of global central banks is mainly concerned about the frequency and rate of interest rate hikes of central banks in various countries, and whether the US dollar continues to be strong. In the second half of the year, the Fed and the European Central Bank will have a balanced decision -making decision between curbing high inflation and ensuring the stable economic development, which will have an impact on changes in gold prices. If the Global Central Bank continues to maintain a strong situation in the second half of the year, it may not be conducive to gold prices. From the perspective of supply and demand, the short -term has little effect on gold prices.

Looking forward to the third and fourth quarters of 2022, the demand for gold jewelry will enter the peak season, and it will rise slightly from the previous month, but it is expected that double -digit declines may still occur.The uncertainty brought by the epidemic, coupled with the pressure of the domestic economy, may have a negative impact on the demand for gold ornaments.The optimistic side is that the government has successively introduced various consumption stimulus measures to encourage residents to consume.At the same time, if the epidemic can be effectively controlled and controlled, the demand for wedding jewelry that has been suppressed before is expected to explode, or it provides additional assistance for gold jewelry consumption.In terms of investment, due to the economic recovery and seasonal factors, and the performance of gold prices, in the next 2022 time, the demand for gold bars and gold coins may rise in a month -on -month, but the rebound from the previous month may not be enough to offset the overall decline.The strong RMB price and the demand for downward risks of the economy may provide additional assistance for the growth of investment demand.

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