A shares rebound Gao Ge Gao Gao Fund Manager to look at the market recovery

As the market rebounded, some fund managers seemed to have begun to turn to the bull market thinking.

On June 15, the three major Index Index rose across the board. As of the closing, the Shanghai Index rose 0.5%to stand on the 3300 -point mark; the Shenzhen Index rose 0.95%, and the GEM index rose 1.05%. Non -bank financial sectors such as insurance and securities have led the rise. The increase in home appliances, real estate, and banking sectors exceeded 2%, and the northern direction of funds bought 13.359 billion yuan throughout the day. The Shanghai and Shenzhen cities traded nearly 1.3 trillion yuan a day, a new high in more than 5 months, and surpassed the fourth consecutive day.

Although the end of the end yesterday was diving sharply, some fund managers said that investors should quickly change the thinking method of the bear market and enter the bull market thinking.

Brokerage stock leader

A -share counterattack market

Everbright Securities daily limit of 6 days, Great Wall Securities (002939) and Hongta Securities (601236) two consecutive boards. CITIC Jiaotu (601066), Pacific, and Xingye Securities increased. As of the close, the market popularity of the market has risen by more than 3%.

Regarding the rise of the brokerage sector for nearly two days, Wang Yanjie, manager of Shenwan Lingxin Fund, believes that the securities firm index is at a low valuation. Data show that as of June 10, CSSW Securities PB valuation is 1.42 times, which is only at a lower history of 15%. Situation level. If you look at it, the PB valuation of many ingredient stocks is even close to the low in the fourth quarter of 2018.

In addition, since 2019, the performance of the brokerage sector has been continuously improved. As of the first quarter of 2022, the ROE of the sector was at a level of about 50%of the historical division. In the context of the continuous acceleration of the capital market reform, the continuous improvement of market transaction activity, and the increasingly diversified company's revenue structure, the valuation and performance of the securities industry in the securities industry Significant departure or difficulty continues for a long time. At present, with the slowdown of the domestic epidemic, the securities sector that has continued to be low -valuation before is expected to usher in opportunities.

The opportunity of the brokerage sector in the eyes of the public fund manager has a considerable degree of improvement from the entire market.

Chu Wenyu, manager of the Great Wall Koh Heng Fund, said that, from the perspective of valuation, the brokerage sector has returned to a reasonable level after nearly a year and a half. At the same time, the institutional ratio is generally low. It is easy to become the target of overlooking rebound; secondly, from the fundamental perspective, the leading broker ROE has continued to improve in recent years. In the near future, the average daily transaction volume has exceeded trillion, and the average daily integration has exceeded 1.5 trillion. It is expected to be Q2 last year Q2 last year. At the level of high bases, the performance of the second quarter of the industry in the second quarter of this year has a limited decline in the second quarter. The recent rise is a correction of pessimistic expectations in the past; in the end, from the perspective of policy, since the end of April is a high probability of confirming the bottom, the policy care for the market has been strengthened to strengthen the market care The market also has the expectations of various transaction controls, and it is also an important factor to promote this round of securities firms.

"The financial sector has performed strongly this year, and it is more based on the industry's comparison, and the configuration needs caused by the stable growth policy and the hedging of the game." Chu Wenyu is right

The reporter pointed out that the investment in the large financial sector not only needs to pay attention to the fundamental aspects of the enterprise, but also to pay attention to indexes such as monetary policy orientation, real economic demand, and micro -market emotions. It is more needed to find the industry Beta from top to bottom logic. Regarding whether the sector market can continue, on the one hand, it depends on whether the performance of the sector can continue to be released, and on the other hand, it depends on whether there will be the performance and configuration value of other industries in the context of policy stimuli. The market market focuses on the direction of monetary policy and the trend of the CPI. If the monetary policy continues to exert its money under the condition of CPI controlling, then the financial sector should still have greater investment value, which focuses on the leading labels.

Hu Zhibai, the Chuangjin Hexin Fund, believes that after the valuation of the brokerage sector continues to visit this year, the stock price has fully reflected the pessimistic expectations of the market. With the gradual restoration of expectations, the securities firm sector not only benefits from the risk preferences of investors who accompany the economic recovery, but also benefit from the core indicators such as the transaction volume, the scale of the fund issuance, the IPO issuance scale, etc. Repair, its investment value is expected to return. At the same time, with the continuous advancement of the capital market reform, policies such as comprehensively registering the landing system in the second half of the year, the official launch of the city merchants, and the optimization of account management functions have also continued to form positive stimulus to the brokerage sector. In the long run, the securities industry can also benefit from the reform of various advances, thereby achieving steady growth in performance.

However, Hu Zhibai also emphasized that the strong Beta attributes of the brokerage sector determine the phenomenon that the sector often shows the same rise and fall. The rebound of individual stocks is different, but it is difficult to achieve long -term independent markets. Historically, the rapid rise of the brokerage sector is often difficult to sustain, especially the "demon stocks" led by the market when the market starts. It is often the result of market games and hype. grasp. He particularly remind investors that the investment of the brokerage sector must not be blindly chased, and the layout can ensure the winning rate of investment.

Is it both a rebound or a reversal?

Has the current market "Dark Moment" passed? Shen Chao, a macroeconomic strategist at HSBC, said that this round of rise has mainly benefited from the weakened economic restoration after the impact of the epidemic, and the strong stable growth policies have been introduced densely and the social integration has picked up. Faced with the background of inflationary pressure around the world, the domestic economic border trend has also won the favor of overseas capital. At the same time, under the pessimistic emotion in the early stage, the valuation of equity assets fell to a historical low, which also provided space for the market.

Xie Yi, Manager of Nord Fund, believes that the recent market is both rebound and understanding. The short -term is obviously rebounding. This is a change in the short -term factors such as the Russian -Ukraine conflict and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. Taking the situation of Russia and Ukraine as an example, the previous geographical conflicts have led to an increase in upstream resources. After a period of time, in addition to crude oil and coal at a high level, other resource prices have gradually begun. "I also agree with the perspective of reversal, because from a longer time scale, some variables that support reversal are also getting better. From the perspective of the economic cycle, the market is currently at the bottom of a cycle, the so -called inventory, which is the so -called inventory inventory. Investment cycle. Similar ones can refer to 2015, after the market exploration to the bottom, it appeared in 2016 and 2017, and a wave of markets led by Big Blue Chip will rise. Looking forward to the next two years, if there is no epidemic disturbance, , I think the market will also usher in a strong recovery. "

Xie Yi believes that at this stage, any industry has very good investment opportunities. As far as the banking industry is concerned, although the growth rate of the entire industry is relatively low, it is only about 5%to 13%. However, some of the very good stocks have reached 15%to 20%. Considering that it also provides a dividend rate of 3%to 5%, it can get more than 20%of the compound growth. In the same way, there are some stocks in the gas -related sector. Therefore, no matter which industry is, there is a chance in terms of individual stocks.

Xie Yi said that it is more popular in some industries in the large consumer sector industry, such as high -end liquor, consumer electronics, and high -profile tracks in home appliances. Even though the overall sector is generally performed, these segments are highly prosperous, and even partially favored by the policy level. In the next three years, they are optimistic about their growth rates, which can reach 15%or even 20%.

What other important events or risks are worthy of attention during the year? Cai Ruolin, manager of the HSBC Jinxin Fund, said that overseas, the US inflation is high, the rhythm and intensity of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and the shrinkage of the table still have greater uncertainty and will continue to pressure the global financial market. The continuous fermentation of Russia and Ukraine's conflict will still be a major event that affects the global political and economic pattern. Affected by these two major events and the derivatives they may bring, it is expected that the world will still maintain high fluctuations and uncertainty in the world.

A shares become global valuation depression

Foreign capital poured in

At present, the impact of the domestic epidemic is stable, and various stability maintenance policies have been steadily implemented. Public fund managers generally believe that the uncertainty of the domestic market in the next stage will be greatly lower than overseas.

"After the adjustment of the first quarter, the market has gradually been repaired from the impact of the early stage of the epidemic and the overseas black swan incident. In the early stage, the risk aversion has been fully released. It is expected that the main investment line in the second half of the year will return to the logic of economic restoration." Cai Ruo Lin said.

Yang Delong, manager of Qianhai's open source high -quality leader fund, believes that recently the A -share market can rise against the trend and get out of independence. There is actually deep logic behind it. First of all, compared with the US market, China's inflation level is not high, and steady growth is an important policy goal. China's monetary policy has maintained a certain independence and adopted a policy that is based on me as the main and relative. The currency environment of the market; second, the valuation of A shares is in a lower history, and it is also in a lower position from the world. The P / E ratio of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is less than 13 times, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 price -earnings ratio is less than 12 times, which is far lower than the Dow Jones Industrial Index and lower than the Nasdaq index. Essence

"Since the since this year, the Shanghai Index has fallen 21%, the GEM index has fallen by 36%, and the risk has been released in advance." Yang Delong believes that since the market at the bottom of the market on April 27, the market trend has reversed. Investors should be investors. Quickly change the thinking of the bear market and enter the bull market thinking. Now every adjustment is an opportunity to increase positions.

It is worth noting that foreign capital is also using A shares with actual action. Data show that since June, the net purchase has been buying more than 31.6 billion yuan since June, a new high of buying a monthly purchase of a monthly month. Earlier in May, the net purchase of the Northbound funds was nearly 17 billion yuan. Judging from the survey of overseas institutions, since May, overseas institutions have investigated more than 300 A shares, and only more than 180 in the same period last year. Since this year, the number of overseas institutions has surveyed more than 800 A shares, which is close to the total year -round survey of A -shares last year last year. quantity.

Yang Delong believes that this once again shows that Wall Street investment institutions have suffered a severe frustration in U.S. stocks. The S & P 500 Index is turning to A shares when entering a technical bear market. The Chinese market undoubtedly has a strong attraction for foreign institutions looking for new investment opportunities. This It also makes the trend of A shares and US stocks go out of independence.

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