Zhang Aoping: The Federal Reserve raises 75 base points, and China's macro policy needs to seize the time window

Zhongxin Jingwei July 28th. Question: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates of 75 basis points. China's macro policy needs to seize the time window

Author Zhang Aoping Institute of Extraction Research Institute

In the early morning of July 28, Beijing time, the Federal Public Marketing Commission (FOMC) announced the latest interest rate resolution, which raised the benchmark interest rate again to 75 basis points to 2.25%-2.5%. In terms of shrinkage, the Federal Reserve is planned to reduce its holdings of US $ 47.5 billion in assets (US $ 30 billion in Treasury bonds and $ 17.5 billion MBS) per month.

The Federal Reserve proposed in the meeting statement that "recent consumption expenditure and production indicators have been weak." It acknowledged that economic activities are slowing down, in line with the current market's decline in the US economy, and it also shows that the economic indicators in the second quarter will be weaker than the Federal Reserve. Optimistic expectations.

According to the United States Federal Reserve Law, US monetary policy goals are to control inflation and promote full employment. At present, the Federal Reserve is in a dilemma. On the one hand, the risk of inflation will continue to rise, and on the other hand, worrying about economic hard landing risks. The Federal Reserve President Powell was relatively biased towards pigeon in the interview statement after the announcement. It believes that "interest rate hike 75bp is already a radical choice" and "may slow down the pace of interest rate hikes."

Although the Federal Reserve "violence" raising interest rates under high inflation and promoting the rapid movement of demand curves, the current US residents still have high inflation expectations. The Federal Reserve Bank of the United States reports that the median expected medium value of American consumers in the next year's inflation in June will rise to 6.8%(previous value of 6.6%), which is the highest level since the record in 2013. Under the high inflation expectations of residents, if you want to control the inflation, you can only regulate the macro policy that exceeds expected, that is, a large interest rate hike and shrinkage.

In addition, the "40 years of inflation" faced by the United States is not just in the past two years to respond to the epidemic crisis and use ultra -conventional macro fiscal and monetary policy on the demand side (that is, the "bottom line" currency is put on the water) As a result, it is the result of the needs of the demand side and the supply side.

From the perspective of specific data, the American CPI (Consumer Price Index) in June increased by 1.3%month -on -month, a year -on -year increase of 9.1%. Among them, the US energy prices rose 7.5%month -on -month, a significant increase of 41.6%year -on -year, the largest value since April 1980. Food prices increased by 1%month -on -month, up 10.4%year -on -year, the largest value since February 1981.

The large fluctuations of international commodity prices, especially food and energy prices, are mainly caused by geopolitical conflicts and geopolitical division, which is caused by supply -side factors. If only the demand -side regulation is only regulated, more effective demand in the "wrong kill" market will eventually cause economic activities to slow down and eventually enter the recession period.

It should be noted that currently developed economies such as Europe also face the dilemma of continuously operating inflation. On July 19, data released by the EU Statistical Bureau showed that the euro zone reconciled in June by 8.6%year -on -year, renewing a record high. On July 21, the European Central Bank held a monetary policy conference, announcing the first interest rate hike since July 27, and the euro zone's main re -financing interest rates, marginal loan interest rates and deposit mechanisms have raised 50 basis points, respectively, respectively, respectively, respectively, respectively, respectively, respectively, respectively To 0.5%, 0.75%, and 0%, the interest rate of the euro zone deposit mechanism ended the negative interest rate for eight years since June 2014.

In Europe and the United States, the "violence" raising interest rates will not only increase its downward risk of its own economy, but also reduce global demand significantly, causing an impact on the financial market that is difficult to expected.

At present, China's "wide currency cycle" and the "tight currency cycle" in the United States will cause Chinese capital to face large outflow pressure, which will have a certain impact on the initiative of Chinese monetary policy. But looking forward, greater potential risks are the acceleration of the global economy, the total demand has declined sharply, and the financial market fluctuates sharply.

Since May, the Chinese economy has achieved a month -on -month repair of the epidemic prevention and control situation, but has not achieved a complete recovery. From the perspective of economic data in May and June, the import and exports of production, domestic demand, and foreign trade have achieved certain recovery. However, the key "blocking point" of the current economic growth is still small and medium -sized enterprises in the market. According to PMI data in June, the level of enterprise production and operation has improved. Large -scale enterprise PMI is 50.2%, and the PMI of medium -sized enterprises is 51.3%, which are in the expansion range. Essence

On June 29, the executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that "the implementation of a good monetary policy, the use of structural monetary policy tools to enhance financial services to the real economy capabilities, and effectively help to stabilize the economic market and stabilize the people's livelihood."

At the moment when the "violence" of "violence" in developed economies such as the United States and Europe has increased the risks of the global economy in the second half of the year, the author believes that China's macro policy needs to grab the time window of time. Under the premise of issuing currency, we will continue to implement the expansion of macro fiscal and monetary policies, increase stimulus effective demand, accelerate the right of demand curve to the right, and transform the momentum of the economy to renovate a more powerful recovery potential energy. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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