Dispute Homai shares: Thousand yuan photovoltaic stocks standing at the turning point turning point

Introduction: From a historical point of view, no matter how optimistic about the market market, such a high valuation, you need to consider the space and the risk of the decline in the future.

Hemai (688032.SH) has attracted market attention in the near future. In more than two months, the stock price increased by nearly twice.

On July 7, the stock price of Hemai's shares exceeded 1,000 yuan, becoming the second thousand yuan shares after Guizhou Maotai (600519.SH), with a market value of more than 50 billion yuan.

The words such as Qianyuan and Photovoltaic Maotai undoubtedly ignite the enthusiasm of the market. Brokers, institutions, and media have paid attention, causing heated discussions.

Source: Network

For the valuation of Hemai shares, two views were formed immediately in the market.

Some value investors believe that from the perspective of business, in 2021, its revenue was only 795 million, and its net profit was 200 million. With such a small volume, how to bear the stock price of 1,000 yuan and 50 billion yuan.

Trend investors believe that the micro -inverter business engaged in Homai shares has a wide market space in the future, and the stock price has risen sharply with fundamental support. The company enters the high growth range.

Before answering these disputes, it is necessary to understand the micro -inverter business of Hemai.

01 Subdivilence Circuit Large

Hemai shares was established by Hang Kai New Energy in 2012 and entered the photovoltaic inverter track. After years of development, it became the leader in this field. The company landed in the science and technology board in December 2021.

Micro -inverters and monitoring equipment are the company's core products. The 2021 annual report showed that the business accounted for more than 50%of the total revenue and gross profit exceeding 70%.

The inverter should be no stranger to investors who are familiar with photovoltaic.

Because the electricity issued by photovoltaic components is DC power, the power grid transmission and the user use the AC power, which requires the corresponding equipment for conversion. The inverter undertakes such a function, which is an indispensable device for photovoltaic power generation.

Common inverters are mainly divided into centralized inverters, group -type inverters and micro -inverters.

A centralized inverter has a large power and low cost. It is generally only used for large ground power stations; the groups of string inverters are widely range, and various types of power stations can be applied.

The characteristics of micro -inverters are small power, which can achieve component -level interruption and high safety performance. It is generally used in small distributed scenarios such as household households and industrial and commercial fields; with the gradual progress of distributed photovoltaic, the penetration of micro -inverters is infiltrated. Rate is also rapidly increasing.

In the early stage of the development of the photovoltaic industry, large -scale centralized and distributed installations were the main applications, and the share of micro -inverters accounted for relatively low share.

According to Wood Mackenzie statistics, the size of the micro -inverter shipments in 2020 was about 2.28GW, accounting for about 2%of the global photovoltaic installation, accounting for about 5%of the distributed installed capacity, and the penetration rate was low.

Hemai's micro-inverter products have "one drag and one" to "one drag and six" full series of products. The rated power is between 250W-2250W, which can meet the needs of 182/210 high-power photovoltaic components.

In addition, power density is the core technical indicator of micro -inverter performance, which means better product integration, lower cost, and higher efficiency.

Judging from this indicator, compared with the industry leader ENPHASE (Enph.us), Hemai has obvious advantages, "one drag and one" and "one drag two" products lead 40%and 190%, respectively, "one drag four" products The power density reaches 922w/L.

Data source: Homai Shares Prospectus instructions

The product advantage naturally reflects the cost and gross profit margin, and the gross profit margin of Hemai's shares far exceeds competitors.

02 Market Space Quotes

The demand terminal of a micro -inverter is small distributed photovoltaic photovoltaic photovoltaic photovoltaic in household households and industrial and commercial.

According to the IHS Markit forecast, the global photovoltaic inverter will be new and replaced by the global photovoltaic inverter by 2025, which will be expected to reach 400GW.

Data source: Homai Shares Prospectus instructions

According to the data of Xingye Securities, in the global micro -inverter market, ENPHASE's market share in 2020 and 2021 was 78%and 76%, respectively, and Homai and Yuneng Technology accounted for less.

The market of micro -inverters is dominated by the United States and Europe, while the Chinese market is more special.

Look at the US market first. Chinese companies will not be too optimistic about the U.S. market in the future.

On the one hand, China -US photovoltaic trade has continued. In this regard, friends who are familiar with the photovoltaic industry will not be unfamiliar.

The United States has been protecting its photovoltaic trade for more than ten years and runs through the history of China's photovoltaic development. A series of policies such as "Double Reverse+201+301+WRO" have been introduced. It is difficult for Hermi to open up the market.

On the other hand, ENPHASE and Solaredge (SEDG.US) have formed a double oligopoly market in the United States. More than 80%, for a long time, formed a deeper barrier.

Look at the European market. The renewable energy draft released by the European Union recently has raised its goals from 40%to 45%.

By 2025, the European Union plans to overwhelm the 320GW solar photovoltaic network, which doubles from 2020; by 2030, it will double to 600GW again. To achieve this goal, the EU will increase at least 45GW each year in the future. "Roof Photovoltaic" is an effective way to achieve the goal of energy transformation. The European Commission recommends that all new and existing public and commercial roofs with an available area of ​​more than 250 square meters must be installed in 2026 and 2027. By 2029, all new residential roof must be installed with solar energy.

Industry insiders said that even if conservative estimates, the roof photovoltaic system installed in Europe can meet the EU's power demand of about 25%, which is imperative.

According to the forecast of Changjiang Securities, the European installed capacity reached 112.6GW in 2025, and the distributed market space accounted for 60%of the market space. Assuming that the penetration rate of micro -inverters was 25%, the corresponding market space was 11.8 billion yuan.

For the domestic market, the photovoltaic inverter market is mainly based on a centralized inverter and a group -type inverter, and micro and other types of inverters account for relatively small. The future point is the strength of the policy.

The group-type inverter power generation system is to connect multiple components to the grid, and the voltage generated can reach 600-1000V.

The DC high voltage is one of the biggest risk points that cause the photovoltaic power plant to fire. Since the construction of the photovoltaic power plant, the accident has occurred frequently. If it involves family households, the risk hazards and costs are higher.

Therefore, the United States, Europe, Australia and other countries and regions have issued mandatory safety specifications for photovoltaic buildings. In short, the voltage controls below 80V to achieve component -level interruption to ensure safety.

China ’s emphasis on distributed photovoltaic power generation has also increased significantly. In November 2021, the National Energy Administration issued the“ Notice on Strengthening the Safety Work of distributed photovoltaic power generation (draft for comments) ”.

Compared with the group string inverter, the microstrobin is connected to the grid parallel to the grid with multiple components. The voltage is only 60V. At the same time, the component level is turned off, which is more secure and reliable.

Data source: Homai Shares Prospectus instructions

In addition, micro inverters can achieve more refined MPPT (maximum power point tracking), thereby improving the overall power generation efficiency of the system.

It is not difficult to understand that photovoltaic power generation power will be affected by various factors, such as temperature and sunlight. In different environments, the maximum power point of photovoltaic components will change with actual conditions.

MPPT is like a brain, detecting the power generation voltage of photovoltaic components at any time, so that the system outputs the maximum power.

Data source: Homai Shares Prospectus instructions

Therefore, choosing to install a miniature inverter is a better choice in terms of policy endorsement or efficiency. Its prosperity is closely related to the photovoltaic roof and has a broad market prospect.

According to the forecast of Changjiang Securities, China ’s installation volume was 194.7GW in 2025, and the distributed market accounted for 45%of the market. The penetration rate of micro -inverters reached 10%, corresponding to 5.3 billion market space.

In summary, the follow -up performance of Hemai in the US market depends on whether the cost and quality advantage of the product can penetrate the local policies and competition.

Due to geographical risks in the European market, the market space will be greater; in the Chinese market, the increase in the penetration rate of micro -inverters will mainly depend on the strength of the policy.

In addition, Hermi shares performed well in the Latin American market, and it is worthy of continuous attention from investors.

03 The source of high valuation

From the perspective of the entire photovoltaic industry chain, the PE on the device side is relatively high. Data show that the median value -earnings ratio of A -share photovoltaic equipment is 47.95.

Data source: Flush iFind

The core parts of the inverter are IGBT. Often the core parts are the most profitable end, and the PE is relatively high. Compared to found that the median PE of some IGBT companies is 44.78.

Data source: Flush iFind

According to the data of the same flowers, the medium value of the inverter industry PE (TTM) reached 154.10 times, and Hemai shares reached 190.79 times.

Data source: Flush iFind

Historically, no matter how optimistic about the market outlook, such a high valuation, you need to consider the space and the risk of falling in the future.

According to the forecast of CITIC Securities, the market space of the micro -inverter in 2025 may reach 27 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of over 40%. At present, the market value of only Homai's shares exceeds 50 billion yuan, which is worthwhile to be vigilant.

The continuous rise in the company's market value or cluster is related to the organization.

One evidence is that as of the end of the second quarter, a total of 24 public offering held a total of 2.8108 million shares of Hermi shares, accounting for 21.23%of the circulating shares.

Source: Oriental Fortune Choice

And in the context of the stock price of Homai in the second quarter of Homai's shares reached 85.38%, the overall public offering was still in addition, especially the two public offerings of the rich country and the south were the most obvious.

Among the top five funds, the "rich country growth strategies mixed" and "wealth and innovation boards are open and mixed in two years" under the rich country are 163,300 shares and 106,900 shares, respectively.

The "Southern Excellent Growth Growth Mixed", "Southern New Energy Industry Trends Mixed" and "Southern Xingrun Value Holding Mixed Mixed" were added to 135,600 shares, 111,900 and 95,400 shares, respectively.

In addition, as a representative of foreign capital, Bellede seems to be quite optimistic about Hermai's shares. Its "Belle German China New Vision Mixed" holds 346,800 shares in the first quarter. Thousands of shares to 414,500 shares have become the fund holding the most Homai shares. On the contrary, some public fundraising chose to get off in advance during the rise, such as the Bank of Schroder.

Public data shows that since the listing of Hermai in December last year, the two products of "Schroder New Growth" and "Selection of Schroord, Schip Bank" under the Bank of Communications Schroder, have always occupied the shareholders of Homai's shareholders. The first two.

However, from the latest data from the latest public offering funds, the above two products have "disappeared" in the list, and from the perspective of its latest positions, Hemai shares have also withdrawn from the top ten positions, so the Bank of Communications Schroder The probability is to do the operation of reducing or clearing the position.

Finally, it is reminded that technical paths such as closure and optimizers will have an impact on the micro -inverter market.

Compared with the two, the cost of micro -inverters at this stage is still high. In the future, the market does not rule out the technical path of the market selection of the broken breaker and optimizer due to cost factors.

For example, if a disruptive technology has occurred and gradually matured, it will turn a turning point on the prosperity of the original technical path. For example, the diamond cutting technology replaces the mortar, the large -sized silicon wafers replace the small size, and the replaced technology has long been forgotten in the corner.

If the market is more for some reasons to choose a correlation and optimizer, then it will affect the future market demand of the micro -inverter, which will also become an inflection point for the industry's prosperity.

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