The central bank's equal number sequels to 200 billion yuan MLF operating interest rate for 5 consecutive months "do not move"

Reporter Liu Qi

On June 15, the People's Bank of China released news that in order to maintain the banking system, the liquidity of the banking system was reasonable and abundant, and the operation of 200 billion yuan on the day of the interim borrowing (MLF) operation and the 7 -day reverse repurchase operation of 10 billion yuan, the operating interest rate was 2.85, respectively 2.85, respectively 2.85, respectively. %And 2.1%are the same as the previous period. In view of the expiration of 200 billion yuan of MLF operations this month, the MLF operation is continued for equal volume.

"MLF did not increase the sequel in June, mainly due to the current market liquidity is still slightly higher than reasonable and abundant levels, and there is no need to increase water replenishment." Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, told the Securities Daily reporter.

From the perspective of Shibor (Shibor) in Shanghai, according to data from the inter -bank interbank borrowing center, although all periods of SHIBOR on June 15 are flat or upward, they are still at a lower level. Among them, the overnight Shibor was reported to 1.413%, and its 5 -day average and 10 -day average were 1.4102%and 1.419%, respectively. DR007 is also at a low level. As of 15:00 on June 15th, the weighted average interest rate of DR007 was 1.6228%, which was far lower than the current 7 -day reverse repurchase interest rate. These data fully show that the current market liquidity is reasonable and abundant, and the need for further increased liquidity is not high.

In fact, under the blessing of a series of policies and measures, since mid -to -late April, capital interest rates have continued to operate at a low level. For example, in April, the central bank decreased by 0.25 percentage points to release about 530 billion yuan long -term funds, and then launched 440 billion yuan of re -loan tools, including 200 billion yuan of scientific and technological innovation re -loans, re -loan in the field of transportation and logistics in the transportation and logistics field of 100 billion yuan, and developed 40 billion yuan. The pilot re -loan pilot of Yuanpuhui Pension, as well as the increase of 100 billion yuan to support coal clean and efficient use of special re -loan quotas.

From the perspective of external factors, under the pressure of high inflation in the United States, the market's expectations for the Fed's radical interest rate hikes are also heating up. Affected by this, the recent US debt yields have risen, and the spread between China and the United States has expanded. According to Wind data and the Ministry of Finance data, on June 14, the 10 -year US bond yield was 3.43%, and the 10 -year bond yield was 2.77%.

CITIC Securities Chief Economist clearly told a reporter from the Securities Daily that in May, the level of inflation that surrendered to the upper expected US inflation in May strengthened the market's more eagle interest rate hike expectations at the Federal Reserve's interest rate interest rates this week. Over upward, the key period interest rate of China -US bonds has been comprehensively inverted, and to a certain extent, it has restricted the loose space and price of domestic monetary policy.

The MLF operating interest rate has been reduced from 2.95%to 2.85%in January this year. As of now, it has remained unchanged for 5 consecutive months. Wang Qing believes that the MLF interest rate in June remains unchanged, which means that the price of the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) in the month has not changed. It is expected that LPR will remain unchanged in one year and 5 years in June.

"In the third quarter, the mortgage interest rate also had a downlink space. It focused on promoting the downward mortgage interest rate. In addition to continuing to guide the 5 -year LPR quotation, it is not ruled out that the possibility of MLF interest rate down in the third quarter. In the future, the MLF interest rate will be limited to the space. "Wang Qing added.

In clearly, considering the external resistance under the differentiation of China -US policy, it is difficult to directly reduce the interest rate of MLF operating interest rates. The core implementation of the "reduction of cost" is the downward of LPR, and its transmission pathway is not single. From the perspective of policy interest rate guidance paths, the LPR quotation is made from MLF, and the reduction of the MLF interest rate will directly guide the LPR quotation. From the perspective It can also guide LPR offer downward. In May, LPR more than 5 years of LPR is descending separately as an instance under the path.

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