New opportunities for inflation spiral trigger gold prices

The inflation rate in Europe rose to 8.6%in June, the inflation rate in Britain in June rose to 9.4%, and the inflation rate in the United States rose to 9.1%in June. Obviously, the global inflation pressure continued to rise. Under the pressure of inflation, the central banks of many countries have adopted a monetary policy, responding to inflation with interest rate hikes, and trying to achieve economic speed reduction and depression demand by tightening the liquidity of the market. However, the actual situation is that the central bank's monetary policy has a limited effect on cracking down on inflation. Due to the problem of breakage of the global new crown pneumonia's epidemic and geopolitical situation and sanctions, it is not that the central bank's policy can be solved, and the possibility of inflation continues to develop in high levels.

For gold prices, when the market believes that inflation is controlled, and the interest rate hike is higher than the market expectations, the price of gold is facing pressure. On the contrary, if the market believes that inflation is out of control, and the pace of interest rate hikes lags behind inflation, the price of gold will be supported.

Due to the slow policy response of the Federal Reserve, the current actions of central banks in various countries have seriously lag behind inflation spirals. From the supply chain problem and home consumption needs caused by the global new crown pneumonia, to the energy and food crisis caused by the geopolitical situation and sanctions, the inflation caused by the increase in the price caused by the rise. Treating more labor disputes, supply chain problems, and even social turmoil, such as recent political turmoil in Sri Lanka, Britain and Italy.

The greater opportunity of inflation continues to be high, and inflation spirals may cause social turmoil. This is why the market generally believes that the US economy decline is about to happen. It may be that Fed officials have not increased their interest rate hike as early as possible. The author believes that through the speeches of Federal Reserve officials, it should not be the situation of continuous misunderstanding. It is more likely that the Fed believes that the US economy decline is inevitable. According to the existing plan, the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates. The first is to prove that the Fed has not lying flat to deal with inflation. Two It is to avoid a more serious economic crisis due to excessive interest rate hikes. Therefore, as investors need to be mentally prepared, the inflation pressure brought by the United States is not expected to slow down in a short time, and the US economic recession is gradually approaching.

This kind of social pressure caused by inflation may be different in Europe and the United States. In addition to affecting finance and economy, the problem of inflation can also cause other risks, which stimulate gold prices. The inflation structure in Europe is different from the United States. Europe faces a large influence of imported prices, not like the main pressure of the United States comes from local prices. The two will cause different negative emotions.

The people in the United States are mainly targeted at the United States of the United States. Therefore, the current Democratic Government of the United States may lose control of the US Congress in the midterm election, and Biden may be unable to re -election. This election result will naturally reflect in the gold market, so the mid -term selection results after November are expected to have a greater impact on the gold market.

Due to the import of inflation in Europe, energy and food coordination within the EU system, the European Central Bank interest rate policy, or the different financial pressure and social pressure in the EU countries. For countries with good internal circulation but weak fiscal capabilities, the emotions of the public and Brexit will be relatively serious and may intensify. After the European and American economic flutes in history, countries have terminated the gold. The first implementation of the country's interests is similar to the export of depreciation currencies. It is a potential crisis caused by the economic crisis. Italy or is facing this situation.

For the situation facing Italy, before the panic of the financial system, if it is only a problem of the euro, the gold price will be dragged down because the strong dollar brings a lot of pressure. However, if the EU may disintegrate the risk of disintegration, the price of gold has the opportunity to get strong support.

With a short -cycle seemingly calm plate, ignoring the butterfly effect of a stonon stone, it often face greater risks.

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