Petroleum company must learn to generate electricity

Text/Jingwen

Since entering this century, under the impact of the economic crisis and the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the will of the green and low -carbon economy in the world has become increasingly strong. Multi -nations have introduced the "carbon neutral" goals and roadmaps to push this consensus to a new height. In the practice of "carbon neutrality", the emission reduction in the field of power and transportation is an important point for promoting "carbon neutrality". This focus point has inextricable connections with the petrochemical industry.

"Oil and gas" is a must for carbon neutralization

From the perspective of carbon emissions composition and source, global carbon dioxide emissions are mainly concentrated in the industrial field, of which the power and petrochemical industry has contributed greatly to it. The field of carbon reduction control is concentrated on the supply side of the raw material, and it is specific to the power field. It is mainly to develop high -emission power supply such as green electricity to replace coal power. At present, almost all power companies around the world are implementing this path or planning to promote structural conversion.

According to the data released by BP's energy medium and long -term outlook report, according to the calculation of net zero scenarios, the proportion of global oil and gas in the first energy of the global oil and gas in the first energy will drop to 25%by 2050, which is a significant decline from the current 60%ratio. From the perspective of energy demand, the economic development level of various countries and the continuous improvement of the quality of life of the people, and the continuous advancement of industrialization and industrialization is generally based on the growth of energy consumption. Although the energy demand brought about by the improvement of the energy efficiency improvement promoted by scientific and technological progress has decreased, the growth of energy demand caused by economic growth can often offset the decline in demand caused by energy improvement. The overall energy demand will increase, but the increase in new energy is based on new energy. host. Although the industrialization and re -industrialization of various countries have demand for oil -based chemical materials, this part of the demand will decrease significantly compared to the current scale of oil and gas demand. Only 20%of crude oil consumption is currently used in chemical industry.

Specific to the field of petrochemical industry, controlling emission focus is on the transportation consumption terminal, mainly to develop electric vehicles and green -based hydrogen -based hydrogen -based vehicles substitutions. In the future, with the development of electric vehicles and hydrogen vehicles and emission reduction requirements, the space of the oil company will become smaller and smaller.未来交通领域的能源供应情景如下：一方面发展以风电、光伏为代表的新能源，持续增强绿电供应能力；另一方面鼓励电动汽车的发展，将绿电作为电动汽车的驱动能源以支撑交通Green electrification in the field forms a benign cycle. Although renewable energy is developed, coal and natural gas power generation has a large need to be used as a peak -regulating power supply, but as the stability of renewable energy has gradually increased, the market share of natural gas will also decline. The current main business of the oil company is oil and gas and its industrial chain. Under the major situation of energy electrification, the company's medium and long -term development path chooses to become a major issue in front of the decision makers. Whether to develop the power business is the focus.

Carbon neutrality causes fuel vehicle elimination to accelerate

After my country's 2014 energy revolution strategy was proposed, the rhythm of low -carbon energy was significantly accelerated. According to the latest energy development plan, by 2030, the proportion of non -chemical energy sources in my country will reach 25%in the first energy source. The newly introduced "Fourteen Five -Year Plan" Renewable Energy Development Plan "further refined the development route chart of renewable energy. It is similar to Europe's situation. In 2021, my country also encountered the phenomenon of power limit and energy shortage and price soaring in energy. Out of the need to ensure the stable supply of energy, my country has recently attached great importance to the protection of coal, while continuing to emphasize the mid -to -long -term development and deployment of non -stone energy. In particular, the replacement work of fuel vehicles in my country is also promoting. At present, the annual sales and preservation of electric vehicles have been among the best in the world, and production and sales have been strong in recent years. According to the forecasts of various domestic research institutions, my country's oil demand will reach its peak by 2030, and the peak of natural gas demand is expected to reach around 2040. One of the important basis for various institutions to make this prediction is the rapid advancement of traffic electrification in my country in the future.

At present, 140 countries in the world have clarified the goals and roadmaps of carbon neutralization. Countries that have not yet announced carbon neutralization and roadmap are also considering and planning their own carbon neutralization roads to varying degrees. Zero -emission targets are on the board. Although there are some repetition and uncertainty caused by some unpredictable events in the net zero emissions process, it has shaken people’s psychological expectations and judgments to varying degrees, but from the perspective of the policy formulation of various countries, the plan for green and low -carbon development plans It was not affected too much.

In 2021, European gas shortage phenomenon prompted European countries to reflect on its radical carbon neutralization actions, and chose a moderate return to fossil energy on the energy supply issue. Relax, European countries generally adhere to the actions of both. Given that coal removal is a established development route, the most direct impact of low -carbon development model and carbon neutralization is to reduce oil and gas consumption. Recently, the European Parliament has also officially passed the 2035 law -sale fuel vehicle. It is an example. Once this plan is thoroughly implemented, fuel consumption in Europe and the world will fall sharply because transportation fuel consumption is currently the main form of crude oil consumption.

The transformation of business at home and abroad is accelerating

In recent years, a significant change in the oil industry is that international oil companies have entered the power business to varying degrees. Even if it has always been optimistic about oil and gas business, the position of the US petroleum company, which has always adhered to the main business of oil and gas, has changed, and has begun to consider the layout of new energy business. At present, the proportion of wind power, hydrogen energy, geothermal, and biological energy in the energy business planning of international companies is increasing. It is still thirty years from 2050. The theoretical ash rhino incident may occur during this period and have a significant impact. Once the market share of transportation fuel is replaced by electricity, the current main business of oil companies will be largely compressed. The decision to be decided, the International Petroleum Corporation has seen this. At the same time, domestic oil companies' business transformation is also accelerating. Oil and gas demand in my country will continue for a long time, and the oil and gas business of oil companies still has a lot of room for development. At the same time, in view of the imbalance of regional development, oil and gas demand still exists in many developing countries, and domestic oil companies also have room for development overseas. So don't worry about the closure of the business of the recent midterm of oil companies. However, it is not enough to consider the recent development. It is necessary to pay attention to major strategic issues such as the medium- and long -term sustainable development of oil companies. In the context of electrification, it is necessary for oil companies to develop power business. At present, the three major domestic oils are also actively deploying new energy business, which is basically synchronized with international oil companies. Wind power, geothermal, and hydrogen energy are the focus of development in the future. From the perspective of development trends, the core business of companies in the energy field in the future should be electricity, and the business cannot be opened. The future business structure of integrated oil companies should be materials and clean power, which not only retains its characteristics, but also involves new fields. The "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" Modern Energy System Plan issued recently, the main length of the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" renewable energy development plan is the basic starting point. These plans and documents disclose their goals, and reflect the development laws and development will of the energy industry.

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