The mystery behind the international oil prices is fiercely shocking

Text/Zhu Runmin

Since 2022, international crude oil prices have surged up, especially after the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, and further attacked in a more intense shock. However, in June, international crude oil prices showed few weaknesses. Then entering July, the international crude oil prices changed the strong trend of the same period in the past, and it fell sharply on July 5th. Brent) Futures contracts have fallen by $ 8.93/barrel and $ 10.73/barrel in recent months. So far, the peak of international crude oil prices in 2022 was nailed to the calendar table on March 8th. On the same day, the contract prices of WTI and Brent futures were $ 123.70/barrel and $ 127.98/barrel.

In 2022, the price of international crude oil volatile was fierce. In addition to showing the basic characteristics of short -term oil prices, there were also components that tested the current market acceptance of the current price level. It was also a transition and contest between the power exporter and the importing country of oil.

Strong US dollar superimposed high oil prices, whether the current price level can continue to face huge pressure. On July 7, the U.S. dollar index futures in the London Intercontinental Exchange in the United Kingdom in the United Kingdom closed the settlement price of 106.959 in recent months, a new high in the past 20 years. During the year's low, the closing price of the closing settlement on March 17, 2008 rose by more than 50%compared to 71.304. At the same time, on March 17, 2008, the contract prices in WTI and Brent futures in recent months were $ 105.68/barrel and $ 101.75/barrel. From these two points, although the price of international crude oil measured at the dollar was similar, but for. For a basket of currencies linked to the US dollar index, international crude oil prices have risen by about 50%. This also means that in addition to the US and oil net exports abroad, the vast majority of petroleum importing countries are suffering from the suffering of higher crude oil prices in the first half of 2008 during the highest number of crude oil prices in the highest crude oil in the first half of 2008.

The current price level is prominent in suppression of oil consumption. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in early 2022, US petroleum consumption hit a record high in the same period, but after entering February, American oil consumption fell suddenly; in the driving season since May, gasoline consumption not only showed no shows of the show Strong, it shows signs of continuous weakness. This is bound to be closely related to the new history of domestic petroleum products since March 2022. This is still the case in the United States. Those who have depreciated by the dollar's currency in the world, the price of oil products has increased more pressure on the price of oil products, and it will inevitably be more obvious for their oil consumption suppression.

Whether a strong US dollar overlay high oil prices depends on the tolerance of net importing countries. In the world's oil market, the supply side and oil demand of the oil are two different interest groups. High oil prices are beneficial to the net exporter of oil, but it is not conducive to net importing countries, because it is a huge wealth transfer for net oil importing countries. High oil prices are tested by the ability to bear the net country. Before the United States became a net exporter of oil, the core interests of the United States were basically the same as the interests of other petroleum importing countries in the world. The average daily supply and demand surplus is nearly 1 million barrels. Needless to say, after the United States became a net exporter of oil, at least from the perspective of oil international trade, the core interests of the United States have undergone fundamental transformations, more of the interests of the net exporter of oil, and further deepen with the transformation of energy transformation in developed countries. The power of oil importing countries represented by the International Energy Agency (IEA) will be further weakened. In the near future, the bargaining capacity of oil net national groups in the international crude oil market will become weaker, or they can only be more passive to adapt, and adjust the impact of consumer demand on the international oil market through price mechanisms. For the net importer of oil, the recent strong US dollar superimposed high oil prices are a very severe challenge from strong to weak transition.

For our country, to reduce the increasingly harsh international oil market until avoid harm, it is necessary to increase domestic oil exploration and development, accelerate energy transformation, and suppress domestic oil consumption, thereby reducing the dependence of imported oil.

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