Goer's shares set the target of 100 billion yuan. Can the performance and stock price be defeated by the Yuan universe under the weak stock price?

Picture source: Oriental IC

Recently, the "Yuan Universe" concept stock Geor shares announced the 2022 stock option incentive plan (draft) and "Homeland No. 6" employee holding plan (draft). The assessment criteria revealed the company's 2023 revenue plan for the goal of exceeding 100 billion yuan.

So, from the fundamental situation of Goer's shares, can this goal be achieved smoothly?

Since 2022, Goer's performance and stock price have been declining. In addition to the decline in revenue growth, its net profit has declined, its gross profit margin continues to decline, and the stock price has continued to fall. At the same time, Golita, who adopted the foundry model, suffered from obvious large customer dependence. In 2021, the total sales amount of the first five customers accounted for 86.54%of the total annual sales.

Industry insiders said that the "Yuan Universe" is still in the stage of conceptual popularity. In fact, the acceptance of the promotion headset equipment in the consumer market is still far away. Goer's shares are still facing downstream needs. Risks such as raw materials continue to rise. And this is undoubtedly a heavier obstacle on the target of the 100 billion yuan revenue.

The revenue increased steadily during the year, but the stock price decreased by more than 40 %

Founded in 2001, Goor was founded in acoustics. In his early years, he entered the Apple Industry Chain to supply acoustic motor MEMS products; in May 2008, the company was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and its operating income exceeded 1 billion yuan for the first time. , Its scale has accelerated, reaching 10 billion yuan in 2013, and a five -year compound growth rate of 58.5%.

After 2014, Goel Co., Ltd. developed into other collaborative areas based on acoustic business, strengthening the strategic position in the field of sensors, wearables and intelligent manufacturing, began to deploy VR/AR business, and entered the Apple TWS industry chain in 2018.

Huaxi Securities Research Report shows that in 2019, benefited from the TWS headset business, Goor's revenue increased at a high speed, and the company's VR/AR and TWS business continued to drive the company's performance growth in 2020 and 2021.

With the appearance of the Yuan universe and the popularity, Gosa, which had been flat in the previous stock price, has risen sharply in the 20220-2021 years, up to 58.11 yuan/share. However, since 2022, although the revenue of Goer's shares is still growing, it has not been sought after by investors in the secondary market, and the stock price has begun to show a downward trend.

The financial report shows that in the first quarter of 2022, Goor's shares revenue of 201.12 billion yuan, an increase of 43.37%year -on -year; in the same time, the company's stock price fell from 56.65 yuan/share to 34.21 yuan/share, a decrease of about 39.61%.

Subsequently, Goer's stock price shook down. On June 22, the opening of a straight line fell. On the same day, the closing was reported at 34.09 yuan/share, a decline of over 10.01%, the largest decline in the stock price since this year. As of July 25, Goer's stock price closed at 30.9 yuan/share, a 45.45%decrease from the beginning of the year.

So, why does the stock price run off while the Goer shares achieve revenue growth?

West China Securities stated in a research report released in May that the stock price is in the historic underestimation range, and the actual operating conditions and valuation levels are separated.

In this regard, Shen Meng, the chief strategist of Guangke Consulting, a subsidiary of Guangke, said that the concept of the Yuan universe is very hot, but in fact, VR/AR equipment is small, and the stock price of Goer shares falls or the heat of the concept of the Yuan universe before The decline has nothing to do with its performance growth.

In the first quarter, net profit fell year -on -year, and the annual gross profit margin was under a downward trend

In fact, it is not difficult to find that the past performance report of Goer's shares has been found that although the company's annual performance has continued to grow, its performance growth has significantly showed significantly. In the first quarter of this year, the net profit of Goer even declined, a decrease of 6.71%year -on -year.

According to the 2022 semi -annual performance preview released by Goer, the company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of the year to 20.77–2423 billion yuan, an increase of 20% -40% year -on -year. The increase was 121.71%.

According to the information of the financial report in 2021, Goer's main business includes precision component business, intelligent acoustic machine business, and intelligent hardware business. The industries that belong to the main business are computers, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries. The company's main products include precision components such as acoustic, optical, microelectronics, and components, as well as TWS smart wireless headphones, VR virtual reality/AR augmented reality, smart wearable wearable, smart home video game machines and accessories, smart home and other smart hardware product.

The reporter found that the gross profit margin of Goer's shares was also in a downward trend.

Huaxi Securities analysis said that from 2015-2018, due to the decline in profitability of electronic devices, the gross profit margin declined, from 24.9%in 2015 to 18.82%in 2018; from 2018-2019 The overall gross profit margin fell to 15.43%; in 2021, the price of chips and raw materials increased. At the same time, the yield of new products climbed up, and the gross profit margin of the acoustic machine business declined. In 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 14.13%.

The gross profit margin of Goer's Q1 in 2022 was 13.72%, a year -on -year decrease of 0.8 percentage points. Many people in the industry analyzed reporters that Goer's intelligent hardware business still did not get rid of foundry, and the increase in domestic foundry companies has exacerbated competition, and its bargaining ability has continued to weaken. Large customer dependence is obvious

In the annual report, Goer said that he mainly cooperated with industry customers in the field of intelligent acoustic machines and intelligent hardware through "ODM" and "JDM". In other words, the foundry model is an important model for Goer's profitability.

In this model, Goh's major customer dependence is also long -standing. The annual report of 2021 shows that the total sales amount of the top five customers in Goer's shares accounted for 86.54%of the total annual sales.

The sales of the largest customers and the second largest customers accounted for 42.49%and 23.6%of the total annual sales. Many people in the industry analyzed reporters that the two customers may be Apple and Meta, respectively.

However, on the one hand, the media reports that Apple's AR/VR headset device will be postponed to release next year; on the other hand, analysts predict that Meta's tactical hardware and headset equipment business will slow down.

In June of this year, Tianfeng International Analyst Guo Mingzheng released a forecast on Meta VR products on the social platform that Meta would reduce the shipments of the dollar in 2022 by 25%-35%(from 1,000-11 million items to the 2022 to 700-8 million pieces), and postponed all new headset equipment/AR/MR hardware projects after 2024.

In this regard, Goer's shares stated on investor interactive platforms that all businesses are progressing normally. However, the specific situation is unknown.

Can the AR/VR market heat up?

According to IDC data, in 2021, the global AR/VR heads showed 11.23 million units, an increase of 92.1%year -on -year, of which the VR header showed 10.95 million units. It is estimated that in 2022, the global VR header showed 15.73 million units, an increase of 43.6%year -on -year. It is expected that the global AR/VR total investment scale in 2021 is close to $ 14.67 billion, and it is expected to increase to US $ 74.73 billion in 2026. The five -year compound growth rate (CAGR) will reach 38.5%.

However, many industry insiders said that the current Yuan universe is still in the stage of conceptual popularity. In fact, the acceptance of the promotion head display equipment in the consumer market is still far away.

Zhao Siquan, an analyst at the IDC China Terminal System Research Department, believes that the AR/VR heads still have very large potential for development. The shipment of VR all -in -one products in 2022 will still rely on the attraction of game content. Since 2021, the action pace of relevant manufacturers has accelerated, and a new round of competition has begun.

In the "Homeland No. 6" employee shareholding plan, Goer revealed the performance target of 2023-2026: based on 2021 business revenue, the growth rate of operating income growth in 2023-2026 was not less than 40%, 70%, respectively. , 100%, 130%.

The operating income of Goer's 2021 was 78.221 billion yuan. Based on this calculation, from 2023 to 2026, the revenue targets of Goer's shares were 109.509 billion yuan, 132.976 billion yuan, 156.442 billion yuan, and 179.908 billion yuan.

Regarding the performance and business situation of Goer's shares, the data given by many brokers are similar to the forecast of Goer's shares. The risk reminder of industry competition pattern deterioration and upstream raw materials price continues to rise. And this is undoubtedly the obstacles on the goal of Goor's 100 billion yuan revenue.

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