Oil prices fluctuate violently. Where does my country's chemical industry go from?

Text/Zhang Hongyang

In 2022, the demand for the domestic chemical industry market was lower than the growth rate of supply, and the market share and profit margin faced a huge challenge. Since February, with the violent fluctuations in oil prices, international oil prices have entered the era of high oil prices, and the impact of multi -point outbreaks on the domestic epidemic on the terminal consumption is superimposed. The cost transmission of the chemical industry chain is not smooth.

Under the situation of high oil prices, there have been unprecedented changes. How should my country's chemical industry respond?

Challenge of transformation and upgrading

In 2022, with the in -depth adjustment of the global oil and gas market supply and demand pattern, the petrochemical market pattern faces a large shuffling and large adjustment, market competition has further intensified, and the pace of industrial transformation and upgrading has accelerated, which is specifically manifested in the following aspects.

Excessive supply in the domestic chemical market has intensified, and the market share and profit margins of chemical companies are facing huge challenges. From the perspective of supply and demand relationship, 2022 will be the year of the most growth in domestic chemical production capacity during the "14th Five -Year Plan" period: according to public information, polyolefins, synthetic rubber, synthetic fiber and raw materials, basic organic chemical raw materials, etc. A year -on -year increase of more than 55 million tons, an increase of about 17%. Historical laws show that in recent years, the growth rate of apparent consumption of chemicals has reached 7%to 9%. It can be seen that the growth rate of chemical production capacity is far exceeding demand, and the overall supply pressure will be further prominent. In addition, the cost of low raw materials in North America and the Middle Eastern enterprises has brought fierce homogeneous competition to the domestic general -purpose product market. The prosperity of the petrochemical industry is less than 2021.

The imbalance of chemical material structure is still prominent. Public data shows that among more than 130 key basic chemical materials in China, 32%of varieties are still blank, 52%of varieties still rely on imports, Lander, BASF, Bayer, Han Gao, Disman, Kosman, and Koschuang It is all the uncomfortable, high -tech barriers to supply leading companies in the chemical industry. Due to the increasing demand for petrochemical products, market sales standards and service quality have also been improved, and consumer consumption concepts and demand for product quality are also synchronized with international standards. With the international leading enterprises with technological advantages such as ExMobil and BASF, such as Gexov, such as the technological advantages, increase investment in China, domestic companies will suffer greater efforts in the field of high -end products.

The technical service level of domestic enterprises and the ability to respond quickly in responding to customer needs are facing a major test. Under the trend of deepening the contradiction between supply and demand in the market and the fierce competition, in order to avoid vicious competition falling into a price war, domestic chemical companies generally tend to extend the industrial chain, jointly find cost -reducing efficiency points, and enhance the ability to cooperate with market volatility. Among them, Hengli Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Shandong Yulong and other civil -private enterprises have been integrated after the layout of private enterprises, and the upstream refining and aromatics devices of petrochemicals are greatly enhanced. Chemical enterprises advance forward integration, adopt joint ventures or establish long -term stable cooperation to jointly reduce the cost of cooperation and share excess profit.

"Carbon Dafeng" and "Carbon neutrality" accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the chemical industry chain, bringing new opportunities and challenges. "Carbon neutrality" means the profound transformation of the Chinese energy system and even the overall economic operation method, which not only corresponds to the requirements of climate change, but also a clear requirement for the high -quality development of China's economy and the construction of ecological civilization. It is estimated that after 2030, the proportion of oil occupying the energy structure has begun to decline, but the demand for chemicals will increase significantly; products will change from fuel type to chemical types, excess fuel oil production capacity, and low self -sufficiency in high -end chemical products will become increasingly prominent.

New features under high oil price

Since 2022, the price of international crude oil futures has risen and rose rapidly. In the first quarter, the price of Brent crude oil was $ 97.9/barrel, an increase of 23%month -on -month and 60%year -on -year. In early March, the price of Brent crude oil once exceeded $ 139/barrel, a new high since 2008. Under high oil prices, the domestic chemical market has shown some new features.

The cost of raw materials and product prices is mismatched, and profit space is compressed. Under the influence of the geopolitical situation, the price of international crude oil fluctuates violently, the cost of the chemical industry chain is poorly transmitted, and the level of profitability continues to be low. For example, the average price of crude oil and petroleum oil rose sharply (in March, the average price of Brent crude oil was $ 112.5/barrel, an increase of 19.5%month -on -month; CFR Japan's average monthly price was $ 1004.2/ton, an increase of 17.0%month -on -month). The market price of chemical products has risen, but the increase is far less than crude oil and petroleum. Taking the ethylene chain products as an example, in March, the average price of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia was 1340.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15.5%month -on -month. /Ton and 5.5%month -on -month. Affected by this, the profit margin of the stone brain oil cracking device continued to compress, and the ethylene and aromatics industry chain fell into a loss in March.

The demand for downstream industries is shrinking. Under the pressure of the cost of altitude and epidemic, the demand for downstream industries showed anti -season atrophy characteristics. From the historical perspective, March is the traditional month of re -production and recovery and the rapid increase in operating rates in various industries such as plastic products, rubber tires, textiles and other industries. However, March this year is different from previous years. Under the pressure of high costs, rapid efficiency, frequent epidemics, and high pressure of product inventory, downstream enterprises have reduced production on anti -season. From the perspective of the industry, in addition to the good efficiency and full load operation of a small number of industries such as EVA photovoltaic membranes, the operating rate of building materials, pipes, wires and cables and other industries is only 30%to 40%. The automotive industry chain was severely impacted by the epidemic, and tire companies in Zibo and Mengyin in Shandong are mostly in a state of stopping. Polyester short fiber production enterprises are at a historical high. Failure to previous years. Petrochemical enterprises actively reduce production and high social inventory. Due to the sharp rise in the prices of high -energy chemical materials such as crude oil, the price transmission is not smooth, and the production losses have intensified, the main production enterprises have actively reduced production prices. In March, the domestic stone brain oil cracking load decreased by about 10%compared with the normal level. China Petroleum, Sinopec, Zhonghai Shell, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Yantai Wanhua and other companies all reduced production. In addition, due to the blockage of shipments, the inventory of the production and trade links is slowly digested, and the historical high is maintained. For example, the "two barrels of oil" synthetic resin inventory is 30%higher than the same period last year, and the social inventory of traders is 80%higher than the same period last year. The end product processing industry is heavy, and it is generally unwilling to hoard raw materials. The raw material inventory is at the lowest level in the same period in recent years.

Unbearable business environment

In 2022, the operating environment of the chemical industry is not optimistic, and the overall profitable situation may continue.

First of all, the intense geopolitical situation is shadowed on the prospect of the world economy. In 2022, the world economy is expected to continue its recovery and stabilize, but the characteristics of uncertainty and imbalance are outstanding. The international trade is expected to continue to recover. The demand for international crude oil is basically restored to the pre -epidemic level. The long -term fundamental fundamentals of my country's economy will not change, but the development of demand contraction, supply shock, expected weakness of the three stress, steady growth, structural adjustment, and risk prevention difficulty increased significantly. The intense international geopolitical situation has dragged down the economic recovery process. The rise in commodity prices such as food and energy will further push up the inflation, thereby eroding residents' income and suppressing demand; Stimulate international capital out of emerging markets. The Economic Cooperation and Development Organization predicts that under the intense effect of geopolitical situations, this year's global economic growth decreases by at least 1 percentage points, and the inflation rate increases by 2.5 percentage points; the negative impact on the economy of the euro zone may be as high as 1.4 percentage points, which is negative to the US economy. The impact is about 0.9 percentage points, and the impact on developing countries may be stronger.

Secondly, the industry's loss is difficult to fundamentally reverse in the short term. The geopolitical situation is still the leading factor of international oil prices in the second quarter. Goldman Sachs believes that under the influence of the current geopolitical situation, crude oil and commodities are falling into increased price volatility -decreased risk investment used by manufacturers for capacity expansion — insufficient overall supply — decreased supply and demand balance buffer inventory -further increased volatility cycle Essence Bank of America estimates that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2022 will be $ 110/barrel. It is estimated that in the second quarter or the second half of the year, with the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation, the profitability of the chemical industry may improve in a stage, but the overall profit level is not good. The stone brain oil cracking device continues to face the possibility of operating production reduction or stopping work.

Third, the demand side of chemicals is facing the dual pressure of atrophy of domestic and foreign trade at the same time. Domestic downstream processing manufacturers' operating stability and confidence repair requires a certain period. In April, the overall operating rate of the terminal products continued to decline, and it is expected to rise in the future but the amplitude is limited. The growth rate of foreign trade exports has declined. As the overseas industrial chain continues to repair and the export orders have decreased, the growth rate of my country's total exports has fallen, and it is expected to continue to slow down in the future. From January to February, the total exports in my country increased by 16.3%year-on-year, a 4 percentage point decreased by 4 percentage points from December last year. The Chinese textile export order returns a large number of Southeast Asia, and the total exports of Vietnam in Vietnam from January to February increased by 48.2%year-on-year. The international sea transportation is affected by the new crown pneumonia's epidemic and geopolitical situation. The reliability of the carrier's shipping period is at the lowest level of history. International trade often encounters temporary shipments and changes, which has a great impact on the performance rate of domestic export orders.

Fourth, the construction load of domestic production devices has continued to decline, and new production capacity has decreased, but the contradiction between supply and demand still exists. From the perspective of the divided cost line, in terms of stone brain oil cracking, the maintenance of the "two barrels of oil" production enterprises has increased, and the launch load of the stone brain oil cracking device is maintained at about 80%. , Lianyungang Petrochemical, Tarim Petrochemical, Lanhua Yulin and other sets of devices have been maintained, which affects the output of polyethylene about 150,000 tons, accounting for about 6%of the overall domestic output. %. In the second quarter, the new production capacity slowed down from the first quarter, and the new production capacity of synthetic resin, synthetic fiber and raw materials, and organic chemical products totaling about 8 million tons/year. Some production capacity may be delayed due to the pressure of benefits, but the release in the first quarter was released in the first quarter. Higher production capacity will continue to cause supply pressure in the second quarter and the second half of the year; social inventory will slow down, but it is expected that the overall overall is still higher than the same period of history. If the downstream profit status and the start load have not improved significantly, the supply pressure will continue. Finally, the local epidemic is complicated and severe, and chemical logistics transportation is facing a test. Since 2022, the characteristics of a large -scale epidemic and exfoliating outbreak have been presented. Omikon's strain has a strong transmission and concealment, resulting in the wide area of ​​its current epidemic, long dynamic zero -zero cycle, the depth of prevention and control and the impact on logistics far more than the Wuhan epidemic in early 2020. At present, the state has issued relevant policies to resolve the logistics dilemma, but from the perspective of the current world epidemic dissemination and prevention and control, the test brought by the new crown pneumonia's epidemic to the chemical industry chain will occur from time to time.

Active and comprehensive response

At present, a series of challenges should make initiative and comprehensive response in my country's chemical industry.

Give full play to the forward -looking and initiative of the market, and improve the ability to seize benefits from the market. Establish and improve market forecasting mechanisms, stimulate the enthusiasm of marketers to carry out forward -looking market operations, and improve their ability to seize the staged market and seize the opportunities. Use market research results, continuously optimize marketing strategies and inventory structures, and control the risk of inventory price decline. Study the re -balance of supply chain in the international market, keep an internal and external price difference, and tighten domestic resources while obtaining a premium. Pay attention to the current market research, use the futures set of futures, and hedge the risk of loosening follow -up costs and product decline. The chemical product market is susceptible to the government's related economic and political policies, so it is necessary to master the state's relevant policies for chemical enterprises at all times.

Stable and optimizing downstream channel groups to ensure the security of the industrial chain. In a special market environment, we must put stable channels and ensure the security of the industrial chain in a more prominent position, actively jointly jointly cooperate with high -quality enterprises, strengthen mutual and benefit in -depth cooperation, and cultivate a group of core customers with high loyalty and great cooperation potential. Quickly respond to the emergency needs of core customers, and enhance the ability of upstream and downstream to deal with market risks. Pay close attention to the changes in the downstream industry, the change of order and inventory changes to ensure the supply of core customer group resources, dynamically judge its tolerance and profitability, and actively stabilize the market emotions with the help of industry associations and other forces, guide the downstream improvement of operating conditions and resumption of production and re -production. Promote the virtuous circle of the industrial chain.

Actively integrate into the "double carbon" goal and accelerate the pace of industrial transformation. Faced with opportunities and challenges, chemical enterprises should integrate into "carbon peaks and carbon neutrality" with a positive attitude. Continue to strengthen the renovation of energy conservation and consumption reduction technology, eliminate backward electromechanical products and technologies in an orderly manner, and cooperate with the downstream industries in spatial layout. For the incremental production capacity of "oil reduction and increase", it is necessary to promote the diversification and high quality of the product, increase the proportion of new energy represented by green power, and vigorously promote the reduction of carbon dioxide capture, utilization and sealing (CCUS). Carbon/negative carbon technology will offset fossil fuel and process carbon emissions, and seize opportunities for the future long -term competition for enterprises.

Adhere to the implementation of differentiated competition strategies and look for a new blue ocean in the Red Sea. Combined with the actual situation of the development of the market economy and the actual needs of the consumer group, the market positioning is accurately carried out, and the variables in enterprise development are effectively organized and combined, so that their marketing methods can satisfy customers and be recognized by the market. Only in this way can enterprises better carry out marketing work and enhance the marketing advantages of enterprises. Create a new competitive advantage, reduce homogeneous and disorderly competition, and replace high -end imported products. Specifically, including increased research and development in the production side, improved innovation mechanisms, and established the advantages of technological innovation; the long -term mechanism of market information feedback and technical exchanges and cooperation on the market side and core customers, improved the speed of demand response, and promoted product renewal replacement imports; Establish a differentiated marketing model on the sales server, improve the technical service capabilities, improve the layout of the frontier area of ​​the market, and allow customers to maintain normal production with lower inventory and improve customers' stickiness.

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