Analysts look at the price of gold | interest rate decisions are coming, and the price of gold is closely concerned

Lu Jun

Chengdu Fengye Service Co., Ltd.

On July 18th, the international gold price showed a recovery market, with a minimum of $ 1680/ounce, which was close to the low area on March 8, 2021. However, the price of gold was supported by strong support, and finally touched the high level of $ 1739/ounce, which basically met the previous prediction. The weekly level received a yang line, ending the previous five -week consecutive decline. From a structural point of view, although the weekly level has rebounded after the low at the beginning of March last year, it is still biased towards the short.

It was mentioned in the article last Wednesday that with the opening of the European Central Bank's interest rate hike, the exchange rate of the euro/USD will usher in a turnover. Last Thursday, the European Central Bank announced the 50 basis points of interest rate hikes, which exceeded the previous forecast of the market and belonged to a more radical interest rate hike operation. In the press conference held by the European Central Bank President Lagarde, it further showed the determination of the European Central Bank to curb inflation and emphasized that it was based on data to determine interest rate hikes. This is generally considered to be an eagle statement.

Although the European Central Bank officially enters the big interest rate hike cycle, it does not necessarily make the euro rapidly, it is indeed an opportunity for the euro. It is expected that the euro will gradually get rid of the trend. Early emphasized that with the opening of the European Central Bank's interest rate hike, the trend of the euro/USD will usher in a turnaround, and the US dollar may have reached the end of the crossbow. As the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in June burst again, the market is expected to raise interest rate hikes by 100 basis points, but most Fed officials have denied it. This may not indicate that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes will gradually decay in the future, and this pair of cold water will be poured in a strong US dollar. In recent days, the US bond yield ten years ago has rapidly broken down, which seems to show that the market has a skeptical attitude towards the Federal Reserve ’s future interest rate hikes.

In summary, if the above expectations are established, the weak pattern of short -term international gold prices will be improved. From a technical point of view, although the international gold price week -level structure is still weak, when the gold price touches the low -level area in early March 2021, it quickly reflects off the low point, which shows that there are obvious signs of departure in the short -term short short. At the same time, there are strong buying disks below.

This week, we need to pay attention to the international gold price rebound. If the price can effectively win the $ 1750/ounce platform, the short -term pattern will be improved. Of course, if the price of gold continues to maintain a low weak oscillation this week, you need to pay attention to supporting $ 1700/ounce platform below. The international gold price is expected to show a second counterattack trend this week, supporting US $ 1700/ounce, and the pressure above the pressure of $ 1770/ounce.

Wu Di

Independent analyst

The Fed's trend this week has attracted much attention. The market is expected to raise interest rates of 75 basis points. Although the US dollar has fallen from the high point in the last 20 years, the Fed's radical gesture will continue to support the US dollar. As the global economic recession is re -setting the expectations of all major central bank interest rate hikes, gold prices are rising. Gold is starting to play the role of risk aversion tools, because weak economic growth will force many central banks to abandon the radical tightening plan. The market will also be anxiously waiting for the initial value of domestic GDP in the second quarter of the United States announced on Thursday to indeed whether the economy has fallen into a technical recession.

From a technical point of view, the price of gold continued to retreat last week to a minimum of $ 1680/ounce, but it did not break through the resistance of the above week, and the rebound was not great. This week, the multi -empty watersheds were adjusted to $ 1715/ounce. The current price of gold is slightly higher than this location, indicating that the bulls are slightly dominant, and this week may maintain a weak rebound pattern.

The upper resistance focuses on nearly $ 1750/ounce. If it can effectively break through the location, the resistance is adjusted to nearly $ 1773/ounce. The support below pays attention to nearly $ 1690/ounce. If it falls below this position, the support will be adjusted to nearly $ 1657/ounce.

Zhou Zhicheng

Guantong Futures precious metal researcher

According to data from the Chicago Commodity Exchange Group (CME Group), the market is expected to raise interest rates at 75 bases in July of 80%, and the probability of 100%of the rate hike is 20%. On the whole, although the US economy has severely slowed down, curbing inflation is still the primary task of the Federal Reserve.

Economists expect the Federal Public Marketing Committee (FOMC) to raise interest rates at 50 base points in September, and then raise interest rates at 25 basis points at the remaining two conferences this year. In this way, the interest rate of the federal fund rose to 3.5%at the end of 2022, the highest level since 2008. Atlanta's Federal Reserve forecast model is expected to continue to decline by 1.6%in the second quarter of the United States in the second quarter, higher than 1.5%of the previous forecast. Dow Jones Data shows that economists generally expect GDP to rise by 0.3%in the second quarter. KPMV is expected to decline 1.9%in the second quarter, but it does not mean economic recession. In any case, the US economy has deteriorated and the deterioration will continue.

In the technical, the small yin line with a long lead belt of the gold price of the gold price, the price of gold continues the overall decline, the US dollar index has touched above 109 but has fallen. Gold price resistance at $ 1750/ounce, $ 1763/ounce, $ 1,800/ounce, $ 1833/ounce. The support level below the gold price is $ 1700/ounce, $ 1680/ounce, $ 1600/ounce. The gold price touched the key support level of $ 1680/ounce last week and rebounded. This week, the price of gold is expected to oscillate between 1706 and 1763 US dollars/ounce. As the Fed in July this week and the interest rate hikes will be raised again, the price of gold may fluctuate accidentally.

Hongjie

Register for senior gold investment analysts

From the perspective of the news, focusing on the announcement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution in the early morning of this Thursday and the Fed Chairman Powell held a press conference on monetary policy, which has a great impact on short -term fluctuations in gold prices.

From a technical point of view, the following week's shadow -yang line was closed last week. From a technical perspective, there is a need to rebound in the short term. The following focus on support of 1680 ~ 1650 US dollars/ounce area support. The above focuses on the pressure of 1780 ~ 1,800 US dollars/ounce area.

Wang Runjiang

National Registered Gold Investment Analysts

In the past week, the price of spot gold has reached the highest price of $ 1738.79/ounce, and the lowest exploration of US $ 1680.2/ounce, closing at $ 1727.25/ounce, an increase of 1.2%weekly, and the gold price finally ushered in a rebound after 5 consecutive weeks.

From the fundamental point of view, the European Central Bank accidentally raised interest rates last week. In addition, the US economic data was weak, and the US dollar index showed signs of signs of signs, which stimulated the price of gold to rebound from the low point during the year. The European Central Bank raised three key interest rates on Thursday on Thursday to increase the interest rate for the first time in 11 years, far exceeding the market expectations of 25 basis points.

The US economic data released last week was disappointing, which weakened the Federal Reserve's expectation of a sharp interest rate hike at 100 base points at the interest rate interest meeting this week. This suppressed the US dollar to fall quickly. It was the US dollar index fell in the first week of 4 weeks. The US dollar index is soft and investors' concerns about the technological decline of the US economy are the main factor affecting the current gold price. The market will usher in the Federal Reserve interest rate resolution this week, and it is expected to trigger a major market in the gold market.

Technically, the spot golden line was suppressed first last week, and then rebounded at 1680 US dollars/ounce. The short -term strong and weak indicator RSI quickly entered the 40 ~ 60 areas from the 0-20 region, and entered a one from the oversold level. In the new stage, the current bulls occupy an advantage. For the first 6 weeks of the Xiaoyang line, the technical form has improved for 6 weeks.

Combined with fundamental analysis, the gold price is expected to continue to rebound this week, but the amplitude will increase. The first look at the $ 1700/ounce integer barrier support, such as falling below to continue looking at $ 1676/ounce (low in March 2021). The first resistance level is located at $ 1748/ounce (Fibonel, which rose 19.1%from March 2021 to March 2022), such as the breakthrough of US $ 1752/ounce (static level).

Shen Guofu

Wing Kun Holding Investment Research Center precious metal analyst

Last week, the spot gold price rose by about 1.03%, ending for 5 consecutive weeks, and returned to the top $ 1,700/ounce. Last week, the European Central Bank exceeded expected to raise interest rate hikes 50 basis points, causing the euro zone to get rid of the negative interest rate. This week, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate resolution will be ushered in, and the market generally expects 75 basis points to raise interest rates.

Ending 5 consecutive yin from the Zhou K line, keeping the support of $ 1677/ounce, is expected to usher in a rebound. This week, it is expected that the spot gold price will continue to rebound after the interest rate resolution is landed, with a target of $ 1780/ounce.

Huang Shiyun

National Registered Advanced Gold Analysts

Last week, the price of gold fell to $ 1680 per ounce in the past year, but in the second half of the weeks, the use of the US Treasury yield fell sharply in the second half of the week, ending the three consecutive weeks of the decline successfully rebounded. Before the Fed announced the policy and the GDP data of the United States, the price of gold is expected to be consolidated.

Last week, US data showed that the possibility of the start of 100 basis points in the new house in June by 2%of the start of the new house was a 2%decrease in the Federal Reserve in July. The European Central Bank announced a rate hike 50 basis points. With the initial response of the market, the US dollar bears heavy selling pressure, and the price of gold reversed the trend.

Gold still maintains a bullish momentum, and the yield of 10 -year Treasury bonds in the United States fell 5%, which promoted the rebound of gold prices. Lagarde did not promise to raise interest rates again in September. As US Treasury yields continued to decline, international gold prices climbed up to $ 1730/ounce for the first time during the week.

The commercial activities of the US service industry contracted in early July, and the S & P global service industry purchasing manager index fell from 52.7 in June to 47. The reading is far lower than the market expectations of 52.6, and the US yield has declined again, allowing the gold bulls to maintain the control of the price trend.

This week, we are paying attention to the United States New House Sales and the Consumer Confidence Index in the United States announced on Tuesday in June. The market is expected to have a possibility of 22%of the Fed ’s interest rate hikes this week. The recent disappointing macroeconomic data and the slight decline in the long -term inflation expectations of the University of Michigan's University of Michigan have caused investors to avoid betting on 100 basis points in July. For example, 100 basis points in interest rate hikes will be a major eagle accident and trigger a rebound in the US dollar. If the Federal Reserve chooses 75 basis points as expected, market participants will find new clues about interest rate hikes and neutral interest rates in September. If the Fed promises at least 75 basis points in September, the US dollar may strengthen, because market pricing shows that the possibility of a total of 150 basis points raised a total of 150 basis points at the next two meetings is 44%. In this tough situation, US Treasury yields may get traction and further suppress gold prices.

If the Fed recognizes the increase in the risk of economic recession and express concerns about the deterioration of the real estate market, the US dollar may weaken its competitors. The possibility of 50 basis points in September will also be regarded as pigeons and open the door for gold prices.

On Thursday, the U.S. Economic Analysis Administration will release its first estimate of the second quarter growth. The market is expected to increase by 0.9%after the first quarter shrinkage of 1.6%in the first quarter. It is difficult to predict the market response after the Federal Reserve incident, but it is likely to be straightforward. It is better than expected data to benefit the US dollar, and vice versa.

It is worth noting that 2.7%is an important support for the 10 -year Treasury yield of 10 -year Treasury bonds. If this level remains unchanged, the yield may rebound and limit the price of gold prices. Market participants will pay close attention to personal expenditure and personal income data and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index before the weekend.

Technical analysis: The relatively weak index (RSI) indicator on the Golden Daily Line has climbed to more than 30 for the first time in two weeks, indicating that gold has finally corrected the oversold status. The technical recovery may continue until RSI reaches 50 daily.

In terms of uplink, we pay attention to the resistance level of 1750 ~ 1780 US dollars/ounce. If it can effectively break through, it will look at the US $ 1,800/ounce mark. The support below pays attention to the support level of 1700 ~ 1680 US dollars/ounce area.

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