Why is new consumption not just a matter of consumption?

Author ｜ Ye Jing

Edit ｜ Sang Mingqiang

Zhong Xuegao, who could not burns, is not just a public relations crisis, but also a phenomenal business problem.

From 2016, Ma Yun advocated the use of new retail to sell "online and offline+logistics" to sell goods, Liu Qiangdong proposed the concept of "unbounded retail", to Jiang Fan, the former head of the Amoy Department "New consumption", new consumption has become public relations.

Based on the enthusiasm of making all the products again, and killing new consumer brands that enter the mature industry, in addition to the conceptual new, they are also very expensive: more than 30 cups of happy tea and Naixue; more than 20 boxes of high -priced instant noodles Ramen said; Huoxi, Klacie, who burst into fire on Douyin, even the price of single grams is even higher than YSL and other overseas lines; in addition, there was Zhong Xuegao, who was once explored to 60-90 yuan for a time. Lanzhou ramen with a bowl of forty or fifty, 7 -hour national tide snacks, etc.

These new consumer brands always want to support high -end positioning at high prices, but always stay in a wave of gameplay. The heat faded, and people had to think calmly. According to data from CVSource, in the first half of 2021, the entire new consumer track financing reached 595 times, and the transaction amount was nearly 127 billion yuan. Since then, the situation has turned sharply. Half for half; in the first half of this year, there were media statistics that a total of 241 financing occurred in 20 new consumer tracks, with a cumulative amount of only 10 billion yuan.

2022 The number of new consumer track investment and financing quantity is drawn by the new eyes

4 years ago, Zhong Xuegao stepped on the preheating node in advance. After leding 200 million A round of financing by native capital last year, he became a darling of capital. Previously, the founder Lin Sheng's phrase "We don't lack money, financing is just to supplement ammunition expansion", and after experiencing a crisis of trust, it seems a bit weak.

At the same time, the valuation of 60 billion Huancha cut off the price while layoffs, and Naixue's stock fell again and again. When the consumer touched the new consumption routine, the attention point gradually shifted from the past "new" to "consumption" The question also follows: Why do consumers pay for it?

From the bud to the decline, most of the new consumer brands have only been three or five years, and the road of traditional brands has been completed for decades. Mo Xiaoxian's founder Wang Zhengqi believes that "the life cycle of the brand has continued to shorten, and it can be done for three years. There are very few new brands. "Compared to traditional brands first investing in production, channels, and supply chains to obtain customers, new consumer brands are more inclined to play quickly, as Wu Xiaobo said," In the past, companies entered the industry The first thing is not to find consumers, but to find a production line, first design the brand and sell it. But now it is a batch of users first through flowing. "

However, the playback of strong marketing has shortened the life cycle. Whether it is brand, product, marketing, and channels, homogeneity is intensifying. As the user's freshness fades, the number of customers' customer acquisition efficiency decreases and the cost of traffic costs rises. For death spirals, the transformation rate of some brands is even about 1: 0.8, so that the first -level market no longer uses ROI for marketing costs as the standard for choosing targets, and instead value the investment ratio of expenses.

In the past, Peng Xin, CEO of Naixue, mentioned, "Consumers feel expensive, but they are still willing to choose because it is sufficient in value." But in fact, looking at the endless new consumer brands in these years, they have risen Become China L'Oreal, and has not become China ’s Kaf or Procter & Gamble, nor has it become a luxury brand in the international front line. In such an ancient track, the huge scale does not need to be educated, and the growth rate is slow. It is destined to be a zero -harmony game. Although we can heated anything in a short time, at the same time, it means that let them speed up Go to decline.

01 New consumption, what is consumption?

"It's hard to imagine that when a company is listed, there are so many partners." Wang Qiang, the founder of Zhenge Fund, once said that at the launch of the 2020 Yixian e -commerce company, 23 partners came to power to thank, from Founded a brand, to Tmall, and then listed on the US stocks. This beauty company that was established for only 4 years has no time.

The annual sales of Yixian e -commerce with more than 5 billion yuan and a share of up to $ 25 per share, threatened to be L'Oreal of China, but the fact is that in addition to the net profit of 75 million in 2019, Yixian e -commerce has been at a loss. state. Some time ago, Yixian E -commerce issued an announcement that received a letter from the New York Stock Exchange. The stock price was lower than the $ 1 of the compliance standard within 30 consecutive trading days, and it was facing the risk of delisting. As of now, after taking repurchase and other measures, the stock price was taken. Relief to about $ 1.5.

Li Feng, the founding partner of Fengrui Capital, has publicly stated that the listing of the perfect diary has brought a certain model effect to investment in the consumer field. In 2021, the performance of Yixian e -commerce in the capital market will continue to play a role in the consumer field.

The perfect diary that focuses on big -name replacement has grasped the rise of Xiaohongshu from the beginning, to the launch of no different people. There are generally the same acres of flower fields. Most of the new consumer brands that became hot in the early days were stepping on the dividends of new channels and social e -commerce. Relying on DTC marketing to drive growth, explosive logic can be said to be the industry consensus.

Some makeup brands invest on KOL for volume map source security certificate 劵

However, Cheng also exploded and lost money. Behind each of the explosive products, you need to use money to maintain the heat. Taking the perfect diary as an example, the proportion of marketing expenses has been around 70 % for a long time. The revenue of marketing -driven revenue increased from 640 million in 2018 to 5.23 billion in 2020. However, at the same time, the operating loss was as high as 2.68 billion yuan. Earlier the prospectus disclosed that the unit price of the Perfect Diary in 2019 was 11.4.1 yuan, and after burning 2 billion marketing costs the following year, this number was only increased to 120.7 yuan. For a long time, Perfect Diary has used L'Oreal as a benchmark, and compared with the latter's R & D cost of nearly 1 billion euros per year, the Perfect Diary's R & D investment in 2018-2020 accounts for only 0.4%, 0.8%and 1.3%. Last year 3520 The R & D expenditure of 10,000 yuan also took away 2.3%of the share, less than 4%of the sales expenses of 973 million, let alone L'Oreal has nearly 4,000 R & D personnel and 20 R & D centers with specialized directions worldwide. Under the background of the industry with light and marketing, the same channels, similar marketing behaviors, the price and product quality of the same echelon, consumers have almost no user stickiness.

The perfect diary that focuses on cheapness wants to break through the cognition. Instead of face -to -face, from the group's strategic point of view, multi -matrix, groupization, and high -end have become the second growth curve of this company's high hopes. Brands such as Tingzi, Pink Bear, Pink Bear, are not a little bit worse than high -end first -line brands.

However, it is interesting that a small Anting brow pen with a pen core of 0.12g is 59 yuan. The small fineness of the cream is about 90 yuan with a small red and lipstick. Armani and other first -line brands, and this is also the "affordable routine" used by new consumer brands.

It is also a new consumption. Compared with the secret price raising of the perfect diary, Zhong Xue Gao has always followed the high -profile route.

Earlier media reports said that ice cream is a seasonal low -frequency consumer product, and the cost of production costs, channel costs, human costs, logistics, marketing and other costs has continuously increased. Therefore, for merchants, only the unit price can raise profits. Taking the cost of cold storage and cold chain logistics as an example, the former cost is around 2,000 yuan, and the cost of cold chain transportation is half higher than that of ordinary logistics. The cost of the upper reaches flowing to the downstream is still required to pay for consumers.

Data show that from 2015 to 2020, the unit price of Chinese ice cream products increased by 30%on average. From the perspective of production costs, according to Ai Media Consultation data, from 2008-2020, the cost of raw materials such as milk and radio cream rose by about 80%.

But the question is that the above is the industry phenomenon that almost all ice cream products need to deal with. Why can the price of small pudding still be controlled in five hair or one? Earlier, the Japanese grapefruit in the interview described in the interview was 1.2 million 1 tons, and then the grapefruit and yogurt added up to 120,1 tons. 1.32 yuan, ignited the anger again.

With the new consumption of Zhong Xuegao, the market public opinion has become increasingly tolerant of them. It is believed that consumption downgrade brought by the downturn of the environment affects people's affordability. However, most of the successful brands at home and abroad, even in the direction of luxury goods, did not reduce the effect of consumption choices to stir up the people's indignation. Establishing an emotional connection with consumers has won a good impression, just like Lin Sheng lamented in an interview: "If I know that it can run so fast in the past three years, I will definitely make more sufficient preparations."

02 Capital from impulse to fever

"China's burger must be Lanzhou Ramen." In July last year, Zhu Xiaohu, the founder of Jinshajiang Venture Creation, revealed in the program to invest in Lanzhou Ramen, thinking that it has the characteristics of universal, standardized, and easy expansion. Wanjia noodle restaurants, 200,000 of which are Lanzhou ramen. "

Prior to this, challengers capital, dangerous peaks, Kaihui Fund, Gao Rong Capital, etc. poured into the ramen track. At that time, only 30 stores opened Ma Jiyong, and the valuation of Sequoia 1 billion yuan was established for two years. TS, the Lanzhou Ramen Museum with the same value also has Chen Xianggui and Zhang Lala. In addition, Whefu noodles with more than 4 billion, 3 billion yuan in small noodles, and Wuye noodle noodles favored by Gao Zhe Capital , Both have become the fragrance in the eyes of VCs in the first -level market.

"They seized the opportunity window for the ramen of Lanzhou Ramen in the business district and shopping center." Zhu Xiaohu said that the story of Lanzhou Ramen in the mall is exactly the same as Xixue Xue's entry into the high -end market, "and at least 10,000 stores in the future ","

The expansion of the store is a return capital. It can only be eliminated once the growth rate cannot keep up with the expansion. However, only the current single store value is multiplied by 10,000 algorithms, and it cannot get financing, not to mention that the more stores, the more you do n’t necessarily make, and the turnover rate is also very important, such as Haidilao.

In fact, in the early years, traditional catering was not welcomed by the capital market. From the supply chain and flow management to the different tastes of consumers, and the regulatory authorities of food safety, health, etc. The unstable, grass -growing catering restaurant is not like a regular army that can be regulated. In the past, the online celebrity brands that were talked about by marketing lecturers, Gagang's burdock, instant noodle cafeteria, smashed money marketing, chain stores, from rapid explosion to rapid ebb, now there is no news. The turnaround occurred in 2020. The bull market attracted a large amount of hot dollars. TMT investment touched the top, and there were only a handful of new opportunities and models. The epidemic black swan also covered almost all industries on the uncertain color. The relatively certain fund exports in the market. According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of domestic social consumer goods in 2020 decreased by nearly 4%year -on -year, while the necessities and other necessities of catering and food increased by 5.1%year -on -year.

As mentioned in the foreword, in the first half of 2021, the new consumer investment and financing was undoubtedly the hottest track. Even if the market was full of homogeneity and price war at that time, it was also known to capital. The business model has prefers to have a certain target product, not a high -risk investment innovation.

But the good times did not last long. After the stage of the horse racing circle, the traffic dividend disappeared, the new consumption in the second half of the year quickly cooled down, the fire was the peak, the end of the listing was the end, and the bubble of the new consumption capital game gradually made people lose trust Essence

Beauty, tea and other tracks, Perfect Diary, Hi Tea, and Naixue occupy the head, and it is difficult to break through the newly entered players in the mature industry. New forms such as hanging ears and coffee liquid compete; while the catering industry such as ramen has concentrated in a short period of time, and head institutions such as Gaoma, Sequoia, IDG have pushed the brand valuation, and other institutions can only be more cautious.

In the past, Yixian e -commerce fell 98%all the way. After that, Naixue evaporated 60%of the market value, and Matt shrinks 100 billion yuan. The more investors and FA gradually reject new consumer projects and even leave the track. Although the entire consumer track is not completely dumb, the traditional VCs are obviously tightened in the investment of the consumer track.

Jiang Kaiyang, director of Thai and Capital, believes that capital now focuses on efficiency indicators, such as customer unit price, conversion rate, net retention rate, performance cost, customer acquisition cost, etc. Zhou Lingyi also pointed out that capital rarely talks about ROI now. It is more about marketing proportion, and it is difficult for companies that rely on marketing to drive.

The traditional VC is a number of listed companies or excellent enterprises of consumer tracks. After getting financing, it has been transferred to the CVC of venture capital, such as perfect diary, bubble Mate, Xicha, vitality forest and other new consumer companies. Like the Internet factories, in order to find the second growth curve or achieve strategic coordination, seek new business models, and improve the industrial chain layout.

Compared with traditional VCs, many new consumer brands are closer to CVCs in the same industry. After all, by 2022, for the consumer industry, CVC knows the industry better, and resources, channels, and experience will be more important than money. For example, in order to supplement the business gap, the investment of the happy tea tells the new story; the vitality forest has transformed marketing and channel resources into business leverage to expand the brand matrix; after multiple jobs, how to balance the strategic layout and obtain investment returns, CVCs are facing the face Big problem.

03 Began to push up from the user

Some time ago, Kaiyun, Hermes, and Richelon Group successively released financial data in 2021, and the fiscal year's performance significantly exceeded the record before the epidemic. At the same time, it was news that the price of the heads of the heads increased.

In fact, the price increase of luxury brands has tended to be normalized, but due to the special attributes of the industry, luxury goods often have higher premium capabilities and flexible pricing power. At the beginning of February this year, UBS stated that "price flexibility" is one of the main features of the luxury industry, and pointed out that "in the past 20 years, the average price increase of lead brands such as LV is 2.5 times that of inflation rates." Power also means that it will drive the brand's income growth, that is, the more and more buying.

When we review the new consumer brands in the past few years, whether it is a new brand that rely on innovative curve or an old brand that transforms survival, it is either as a circle or a popular route, but it is rooted in the new track of mature tracks. Consumer brands are mostly dilemma of imitation innovation.

I want to take a high -end route, but the structure of the product has been fixed, which can be alternative and too strong. The explosive models of marketing in new consumption in a short period of time are easily copied. The brand eventually died in the price war and repurchase. According to the China New Consumer Market Insight Report released by BCG, the half -year repurchase rate of new consumer brands is mostly less than 20%, and consumers greater than 75%recognize items rather than brands.

The marketing rules of platforms such as Xiaohongshu and Douyin are no longer business secrets, and the former traffic depression has become more monk. After the market cools, the marginal cost of brand marketing income increases, the return on capital return is stretched, and there is no hope of returning. At this time, the new consumption gradually turned its attention to the user.

Compared with the brand that can become luxury goods, we find that the new consumption tracks are always focused on eating, drinking, and fun. In this way, consumer activities often occur in the front desk, and the chain of background chains such as warranty, after -sales, and value -added services is often rough. Not even, this is also one of the differences between most general consumer products from luxury goods. For example, Prada's VIC can get fixed discounts and participate in the brand's season discount activities in advance; Dior provides users with ritual service, and even through the brand can purchase joint art works. Provide consumers with a special repair department and craftsman team and most maintenance items for free after -sales service. However, for general consumer goods, intimate and thoughtful after -sales service brings good increase to the brand, not without precedent. Previously, Tea Yan Yue and Xisha had rely on the service of "dissatisfaction with a cup" to harvest a wave of passers -by.

There is such a story. It is said that when Bezos meets, he will put an empty chair in the conference room, representing "customer". And people often hear people asking each other at the meeting: Do you think for customers? Bezos once said, "I don't know what changes will happen in the future, but I know that one thing will never change, that is: we have to do the company that centers the most user experience."

Coincidentally, Sheng Tian Zhaofu advocated "carefully observing people's lives, judging what consumers may need with intuition, and using this as a guidance." The layer understanding is actually the same reason. The former persistence has achieved the status of Amazon's world's first shopping website, and the latter's user thinking allows Sony to create a cultural trend of personal music players worldwide.

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