Real estate industry large shuffle

Overview of this article: The real estate industry before 2021 has always moved forward steadily. Although the sudden epidemic has caused the industry to be caught off guard, the progress of construction and land acquisition is seriously frustrated, but the most fundamental demand for home buyers is still there, and the willingness to buy home buyers still exist in still existence. Essence

The real change was in the second half of 2021. In July 2021, many places were issued to standardize the real estate market. Second -hand housing guidance prices, restricted business loans, purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and cracking down on real estate of real estate were obviously upgraded. Expand.

In September 2021, the "Evergrande Fortune" product under Hengda, the head of the first housing company, was burst and could not be paid. There was a rumor of suspected thunderstorms. Just as the first Domino bone card was fell, a series of negative chain reactions were generated.

After Evergrande, my country ’s more than 100 billion and trillion housing companies have been thunderstorm. Obviously, this is not a problem of poor management of individual housing companies, but that the entire industry is facing a huge crisis.

1. Do not stir -fry the house, the purchase restriction policy reverses upward trend

2. Extension of the house, the credit is lost under the vicious cycle

3. Create value, real estate urgently needs to regain liquidity

Do not fry the house, the purchase restriction policy reverses the upward trend

From the beginning, Chinese real estate was finance -land sales, house selling is financing, and land buying and buying houses is investment.

Although policy makers have always tried to solve the problem of "living" through the real estate market, financing and consumption are essentially incompatible. Regardless of whether it is a "purchase order" or "house control price", macro -control has limited control over the real estate market, and the high housing price does not seem to be an inevitable fact.

At the beginning of 2020, the epidemic brought a wave of crisis to real estate developers. The sudden epidemic caused the market to press the suspension button. However, the popularity of online marketing such as live sale, short videos, and VR viewing allows the real estate industry to see the spring in the epidemic.

Extracted the epidemic impact real estate developers, but the challenge has just begun.

In early 2021, a more subversive industry than the epidemic happened. The People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a "real estate restriction order". According to factors such as the asset scale and institutional type of banking financial institutions, the real estate loan concentration management requirements are set.

"Houses and not stir -fry" have been shouting for many years, but this time buyers have found that the situation seems to be different. The bank is unable to loan, and the approval cycle of the mortgage is being stretched. Many cities have reported the tightening of the loan quota one after another. The loan period has been extended to three or four months, and even some banks stopped handling new houses and second -hand housing loans.

In addition to the tightening of the loan policy, the central government's coordination measures also include "volume and price suppression". By increasing the supply of market land, suppressing the rising house prices too quickly, to correct the land dependence of the local government, let the local governments bear the duties of "living" duties of "living". Essence

House prices have come down, and the real estate industry has begun to show crisis. In the past, high -leveraged real estate companies that rely on financing to maintain normal capital turnover have a cash flow crisis due to financing restrictions; consumers who rely on bank loans to buy housing speculation have declined Come huge impact.

Coupled with the repeated interference of the normal marketing rhythm, the three red lines and other policy factors squeezed the living space of real estate companies. Some real estate companies have exploded. Most real estate companies are trapped in risks. The myth is really challenging.

Such a challenge is ultimately the result of the choice after the design of the real estate policy -if you want to achieve "living", you must sacrifice "fry". If the "fry" is sacrificed, the economic growth will be insufficient, and the economic decline will be reduced, and it will be in crisis.

However, government policies are not deviated from the market. As the aging of society intensified, the urbanization rate is over, and the supply of residential land supply has decreased. The government's "housing and living" policy has been shouted for many years, and it did not really achieve practical results until 2021. It shows that the market's response meets expectations. It is deeply farming to replace the big sword and become the direction of the real estate industry.

Delay the delivery of the house, the credit is lost under the vicious cycle

The new policy is deep for real estate companies.

As of May 2022, only more than ten listed real estate companies have publicly disclosed the annual performance goals, and the number has decreased sharply compared with the level of about 40 in previous years. Among housing companies that publicly disclose annual performance goals, the sales goals of most enterprises have fallen to varying degrees.

Real estate companies are facing an unprecedented crisis. Overception, thunder, layoffs, rights protection and rotten ending have become hot words in the real estate industry. According to the People's Court's announcement network, the number of bankruptcy of real estate companies in 2021 was as high as 396, with an average of more than one per day.

Evergrande's thunder is the epitome of real estate companies under the change. In 2020, Evergrande's sales reached 703.5 billion yuan, but the scale of liabilities reached 1.97 trillion.

The real estate enterprise represented by Evergrande relies on the scale of high -speed growth business during the expansion process, and the ultra -high speeds completed by land acquisition, building, sales, and repayment within a few months, as well as large -scale domestic and foreign debt raising, in -table in -table, in -tables High liabilities of debt bonds.

In a stable macro and market environment, such a development model seems to be no problem: upstream and downstream companies have orders, real estate companies have profits, and real estate real estate and buyers have continued to grow through house prices.

However, in the scene where the policy mutations and the fund chain were broken, the previous profit model became a sword of Damocles, which was highly suspended on Evergrande's head.

"No business" condenses too much contradiction. By obtaining funds, continuing land, and continuing financing by pre -sale houses, it has made accounts payable, accepting bank tickets, houses that have not been delivered in advance The land that has not paid has become a straw that crushes the camel. Funding is difficult to flow, liabilities are difficult to pay, and Evergrande has been defeated by high leverage. In order to occupy the funds, real estate developers have tried their best to do so: they are eligible for the construction period to slow down the payment of the project funds; they delay the delivery of the house and let consumers feel miserable to the bad tail buildings bought by heavy funds.

And when the policy mutations are changed, the "little cleverness" of the past has become the resistance of the development of the enterprise. Real estate companies have been financing, and even at high cost financing. Essence Such development is the expansion of large pie -breaked cake, a expansion of consumer confidence and trust, and a development model that will be abandoned by the market.

From this perspective, Evergrande's thunder is a policy -side reaction, and the market is the result of the "invisible hand" deployment.

When there is a problem with the industry development model, the simple demographic dividend cannot create a generous profit, capital is destined to lose information and gradually withdraw from the property market. Real estate companies have lost their original financing chain and bear huge pressure on funds alone.

Create value, real estate urgently needs to regain liquidity

Although the state inhibits the overheating development of the real estate industry, when the real estate is suffering from heavy pressure, the state still needs to rescue the market.

On the one hand, local governments frequently amended the previous pre -sale fund supervision policies, which involved the expedite approval efficiency, the proportion of funds to the regulatory funds, and bank insurance letters.

For example, on March 1, 2022, Zhengzhou issued 19 new property markets. Many popular cities such as Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Changsha have also followed up quickly. Related measures include reducing mortgage interest rates, reducing the proportion of down payment, increasing the amount of provident fund loans, increasing house purchase subsidies, and reducing house purchase taxes.

On the other hand, banks also relaxed credit policies. For the projects of insurance housing companies, many banks have also launched real estate mergers and acquisitions theme bonds to encourage high -quality real estate companies to conduct mergers and acquisitions of loan financing.

For example, on December 5, 2021, the CBRC guided financial institutions to meet the needs of the first house, improved the needs of mortgage in the housing, and reasonably issued real estate development loans and mergers and acquisitions loans. M & A loans were first mentioned.

However, the market obviously has not yet come out of the pain. The unprecedented factors such as the epidemic and economic downturn have caused buyers to generally adhere to the conservative mentality of "safe priority", and the atmosphere of waiting and watching is strong.

In April 2022, the prices of new houses in 70 large and medium -sized cities ushered in the first drop in 6 years. The number of cities declined in sales prices in commodity housing increased. The sales prices of commercial housing in first-, secondary, and third -tier cities showed a decline in the overall month -on -month and continued to decline.

Just as the "housing and living", which had been shouting for many years, did not work, it was still difficult for the government to rescue the market this time.

Fortunately, with the government's help and experienced this blow, real estate companies are breaking the original development model and exploring a brand new self -rescue road.

First of all, it is to break the original "phase house" model and increase the delivery rate. For example, in March 2021, the first batch of commercial housing of the Foshan Yueyue Peninsula project of Power Construction Real Estate was successfully delivered, and the visit to the closing rate was as high as 99.46%. deliver.

Secondly, it is to break the original "high debt" level. For example, China -Australian real estate adheres to the business model of scale, profit margin and liabilities. It is developed by its own funds and does not rely on trust transfusion. The risk of liquidity is extremely low.

Finally, it is to break the original "extensive" development model. Some real estate enterprises are planned in detail, winning the foundation of customers and the market with high -quality products, and using quality as the guarantee of exploring new development models.

The industry pain continues, but real estate companies have not been waiting for it, but have found a feasible and high -quality development model from adversity.

Perhaps in the future, house prices will become increasingly stable, and the "premium" will slowly squeeze out. The era of rising house prices in the past is difficult to reproduce, but real estate companies that pass the waves of sand and sand will appear in front of consumers with a new attitude.

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