Wen Bin et al.: In May, the main macroeconomic indicators improve

Zhongxin Jingwei June 15th: In May, the main macroeconomic indicators of the main macroeconomic indicators improved

Author Wen Bin, Chief Researcher of China Minsheng Bank

Feng Bai China Minsheng Bank researcher

On June 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released data. In May, the value added of industries above designated size increased by 0.7%year -on -year, a decrease of 2.9%in April. From January to May, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 6.2%year-on-year, and from January to April to 6.8%. In May, the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 6.7%year -on -year, and April fell 11.1%.

We believe that with the implementation of the overall improvement of the epidemic situation and the implementation of a policy of stabilizing the economy's package, the major macroeconomic indicators in China have improved marginal improvement in May, and the overall show of the national economic operation has resumed a good trend. At the same time, we must also see that consumption is growing negative, employment pressure is still large, and there are many difficulties and challenges in economic operation.

Production recovers positive growth. In May, the added value of the industry fell by 2.9%from the year -on -year to increase by 0.7%. It mainly caused the overall improvement of the epidemic situation, and the company's resumers and re -production, and the economic activity increased. On the one hand, the epidemic has weakened production and logistics. In May, the China Express Logistics Index rose 6.4 percentage points to 99.3%from last month to 99.3%. The PMI (purchasing manager index) rose 5.3 percentage points to 49.7%over the previous month. On the other hand, demand has been repaired. Foreign demand still has tough support to support China's export growth rate, and domestic demand has improved. The new order PMI index rose 5.6 percentage points to 48.2%over the previous month. At the same time, we must also see that the above PMI index is still located in the contraction range, and the increase in industrial added value by 0.7%is also a lower level in recent years, indicating that the re -production and re -production need to be further advanced.

Investment remains steadily. From January to May, fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 6.2%year-on-year, and the increase fell by 0.6 percentage points from the previous value. Investment has maintained a stable growth and supports stable growth. Manufacturing investment has maintained a rapid level of growth. From January to May, it increased by 10.6%, and the increase fell by 1.6 percentage points from the previous value. Among them, high-tech industries and high-tech manufacturing industries have risen well, and from January to May, 20.5%and 24.9%, respectively. Infrastructure investment has accelerated further, from January to May, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The pre -issuance of special bonds supports infrastructure investment growth. The 3.45 trillion yuan amount issued in 2022 is basically issued before the end of June, and strives to be basically used by the end of August. It is expected to continue to support the source of infrastructure investment funds. Infrastructure investment It is expected to maintain rapid growth, and it is expected to become the main force of steady growth in 2022. Real estate development investment continued to fall, from January to May year-on-year decreased by 4%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the previous value. The sales area of ​​commercial housing decreased by 23.6%year -on -year, an increase of 2.7 percentage points. The sales of commercial housing decreased by 31.5%year -on -year, an increase of 2 percentage points. At present, real estate investment and consumption are still weak, and it is expected that the real estate market is expected to rise in stability.

The decline in consumption is narrowed. In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 6.7%year -on -year, a narrowing of 4.4 percentage points. Under the influence of the epidemic, consumption in May is the third consecutive month. At present, the decline in consumption is still not small, and the difficulty of consumption recovery is more difficult. Among the sales of major projects, the growth of growth is: grain, oil, food increased by 12.3%year -on -year, an increase of 2.3 percentage points; Chinese and Western medicines increased by 10.8%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points; 3.6 percentage points, the price factor formed a certain contribution. In addition, consumption such as clothing, hats, and needle textiles, cosmetics, gold and silver jewelry, household appliances and audiovisual equipment, and automobiles have decreased by more than 10%year -on -year. These data overall presence, the characteristics of consumption and maintenance, and the decline in optional consumption, reflect that the current willingness to consume is not strong. In addition, offline consumption and service consumption are still largely limited. In May, catering revenue decreased by 21.1%year -on -year. Although the decrease was narrowed by 1.6 percentage points, it maintained a decrease of more than 20%for two consecutive months.

On the whole, the situation in the recent epidemic has improved, the restrictions on economic activities have weakened, and there must be signs of improvement in the real economy. However, it is also necessary to see that under the influence of the continuous evolution of the new coronary pneumonia's epidemic, the Russian -Ukraine conflict, and the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy, the uncertainty of the global economic development prospects has risen, and the Chinese economy still faces many difficulties in difficulties, especially the total demand is insufficient. Consumption is still weak and employment pressure is high. In the next stage, we must implement the policy and measures to stabilize the economy, continue to do a good job of prevention and control of the epidemic, increase their efforts to boost domestic demand, do a good job of relief in difficult areas, industries and people, increase support for employment, as soon as possible as soon as possible, as soon as possible Make market subjects reverse expectations, strengthen confidence, and maintain economic operation in a reasonable range. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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