Daily discussion of gold | Gold prices are strong, rebound or reversed?

Guest: Liu Zhongshan, a researcher at Beijing Golden Economic Development Research Center

This week's international gold price opened at $ 1707/ounce, rushed to a maximum of $ 1723/ounce, and the lowest exploration to $ 1680/ounce.

At the level of news, because of the concerns of inflation out of control overwhelming concerns about growth, the European Central Bank surpassed 50 basis points on Thursday. It was the first time in the European Central Bank of the European Central Bank. Strong rebound.

Next week, the Federal Reserve interest conference is expected to increase interest rates by 75 basis points to curb out of control's inflation. From a logical perspective, the euro rebound led to the decline in the US dollar index and the gold price rebounded. However, it should be noted that whether it is the euro interest rate hike or the US dollar rate hike, overall, the global loose monetary policy is transitioning to a tightening monetary policy. Essence Therefore, from the Fed's expectations of interest rate hikes, the price of gold is still overwhelming.

At present, Russia and Ukraine's conflict continues. At present, the impact on the price of gold is weakening, but it still needs to be alert to the sudden impact of the conflict.

The price trend of crude oil has a linkage effect on the price of gold. Beixi 1, the largest natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany, resumed Russia's natural gas on Thursday after 10 days of suspension, which relieved people's concerns about the extension of the maintenance period. The Minister of Libya accepted the media interview that Libyan's oil output rose to 700,000 barrels per day, and the output would return to 1.2 million barrels per day within 7 to 10 days. The slowdown in supply restrictions and uncertain the global economic recovery process will benefit the short crude oil and weakening of crude oil prices to help lower the expectations of inflation, and the short -term support for gold prices will weaken.

Judging from the gold ETF position, ETF has a total position of 1005.87 tons, 5.22 tons of positioning on July 19, 3.19 tons on July 21, and a total of 8.41 tons of positions this week. ETF reduction this week will be short -term for gold prices.

In summary, the interest rate hike in the euro area has led to a callback of the US dollar. Gold prices rely on the counterattack at the bottom. The geographical situation and crude oil trend have weakened the gold price. The current focus of the market is mainly due to the Monetary policy of the Federal Reserve next week. Although the US dollar has a call back, it is still in a strong cycle, but the main line of the market is still on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. On the whole, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike continues to put on the price of gold, and the expectation of interest rate hikes is unchanged. The gold price rebound should not be too optimistic.

At the perspective of the operation level, the basic face is facing the Fed's expectations of expected to be suppressed. The technical trend is still in a short trend although the gold price daily line has rebounded. ETF's continuous reduction of warehouses has also been empty on gold prices, and no signs of positions have been seen at present. On the whole, the pressure above the gold price is more obvious. Therefore, from the perspective of the operation level, the trend of the gold price is expected to rise next week. The gold price operating range next week is 1680 ~ 1740 US dollars/ounce. The focus is on the support level of $ 1680/ounce. The short -term operations are short -term short and short -term orders. Strict stop loss, the above suggestions are for reference only.

- END -